Here are my pipeline thoughts. The length of the EU pipeline is about 40 days from Fremont to customer delivery. At the EU sales peak, there were about 1000 deliveries per month, so there should have been about 1300 in the pipeline. Of course they drain it down at the end of the quarter, so I'm estimating that it would have been down to 500 at the end of Q4. In Q1 they specifically stated that they built 1000 more than delivered, so there must have been about 1500 at the end of Q1.
And where are we headed for Q2? The steady state EU pipeline should now be down to about 1135 based on the current sales rate. Again, it looks like it will be unloaded to make end-of-quarter numbers but probably not quite as low. Tesla has already stated that they will build 1000-1500 more cars than they deliver in Q2, so the pipeline should have 2500-3000 in it. Splitting the difference, I'm guessing at the end of Q2, there will be 750 in the EU pipeline and 2000 in the Asian one.
I don't have a good handle on the length of time from Fremont to customer, but if it's also around 40 days, then a 2000 car pipeline translates into monthly sales of 1500. We'll have to see how it all unfolds.
"Can you tell me how any business can be cash flow positive for a week?"
No problem, if it was the week they sold the bulk of their ZEV credits. The timing for that would be about right.
If Tesla was not spending additional R&D on the MX, then they would be going out of business. There will always be new models to work on. In a healthy company, R&D spending never goes away. Both the R&D expenses and SG&A expenses are here to stay.
The the break even point for the manufacturing operations is still on the distant horizon. According to the Shareholders' letter, Loss from Operations (GAAP) was $44M. Even if you add $21.4M in gross profit deferred due to lease accounting, they still lost $22.6M in operations last quarter.
Actually, there were closer to 1500 units in the pipeline at the end of March. In Q1, 1000 were added. I'm estimating were 500 left after Q4.
With just the smallest amount of effort, Gundlach could have reported accurately. For example, the Leaf battery contains 192 large cells. I guess it doesn't have the same rhetorical impact as "one big battery". Every engineering decision involves pros/cons tradeoffs. Tesla and Nissan simply arrived at a different solution. I don't see any out-of the-box thinking. Regarding the number of cells, is it your opinion that Leaf batteries are more prone to thermal runaway?
"The automaker rejected conventional thinking behind building one big battery"
Remind me - which conventional-thinking automaker is trying to use one big battery? It's hard to believe people get paid to write this stuff.
VIN activity has been pretty quiet lately. But there's still enough data to plot a trendline. When I plot the previous 3 months, previous 2 months, or previous month, this is what I get:
3 month trend: 750/wk
2 month trend: 600/wk
1 month trend: 550/wk
The other interesting thing I see is that the time from VIN assignment to delivery is still pretty constant at about 50 days. But the time from confirmation to VIN has grown considerably. It's now also running at 50 days.
June sales in Switzerland are a little hard to decipher. On the auto-schweiz ch site, Tesla is not listed among the June automakers or models. However in the year-to-date numbers, they show 253. That implies June sales of 62, which brings the quarterly trend right in line with Germany.
Clever jab at the Pinto, but you forgot to mention that the Pinto fatality rate was no higher than other compacts. I think a better explanation was the lack of seat belt usage, non-radial tires, 4-wheel drum brakes, non-collapsing steering column.
Yes, it works out to about 2 charges per day per charging station bay. I'm assuming a typical recharge stop is about 40 kWh.
Wow, Tesla’s sales volume in China may match that of the U.S. as early as 2015. Elon also predicted that UK sales would exceed Norway's. As an investor, I find this more interesting than 100 MPH car crashes.
I applaud Mr. Andrew's efforts in kickstarting the charging infrastructure. However, I don't think his stations will help much for cross-country travel. At 240V-15A, the charging rate will be about 10 MPH. They really need Superchargers or at least CHAdeMO fast charging.
I read a good article by Quoth the Raven. He ain' buyin' none of that Norway sales nonsense. Only Q1 sales are relevant to serious investors.
So many on this board have been predicting a Tesla split. And I never took them seriously.
OMG - New data just in!
"Is the Emperor Penguin Marching Into Oblivion? With their stout frames and slightly swollen bellies, the emperor penguins of Antarctica look as sturdy as can be. But climate change threatens the survival of the iconic species, according to new research. The first continent-wide study of the seabirds featured in the documentary March of the Penguins predicts that by 2100 melting sea ice will eliminate half the population in two-thirds of penguin colonies."
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.