Almost every MX article I read is predicting about 5000 MX deliveries in Q4. That's about half of what I expect. I'm thinking that once Tesla starts accepting MX orders, the MS orders will drop off dramatically. So in order to keep deliveries flowing, Tesla will have to ramp up MX very quickly. Just like a real car company does. They should have the experience to do that now.
For total Q4 Tesla sales, I have 16,500 penciled in right now. Still, that would leave them shy of 50,000 for the year. Anyone see it differently?
"Have people considered the brand new and now growing revenue stream"
Absolutely. We've already seen a dramatic increase in revenues with the introduction of the D's. Also the increased revenues from used sales. All of that was included in the Q1 results. Of course, it was hard to isolate the exact contribution from used sales. Maybe Tesla will clarify that in the CC, if somebody thinks to ask.
Yes, that's all covered under "depreciation". Are you seeing evidence that Tesla reliability is better than ICE?
"but new owners tend to 'hypermile' it"
So true. If I see a Prius ahead of me at a stoplight, I always choose a different lane.
Apparently strut failures are common in the space industry. A solar panel on the Soyuz capsule failed to deploy yesterday.
From EV Obsession: "The latest news on this front is that Apple has hired former head of global quality at Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Doug Betts. Apple also hired Steve Zadesky, who was previously a product designer and engineer at Ford. He apparently received the go-ahead to hire 1,000 employees."
“There is of course one speed faster than ludicrous, but that is reserved for the next generation Roadster in 4 years: maximum plaid.”
I have to admire his enthusiasm, but I can also see why he predicts no profits.
Yes, my TCO calculator includes all of Elon's factors, plus a few that he somehow missed:
- Cost of time spent waiting at a Supercharger
- Cost of time traveling a longer route to include Superchargers
- Depreciation (the elephant in the room)
Actually, it's not possible save $5,000 a year because I only spend $2,200 a year on gas. And the net fuel savings would be about 75% of my $2,200. Believe me, I have examined the True Cost of Ownership long before Elon came out with his TCO calculator.
Tesla is getting very close to Harley-Davidson in quarterly revenue. It will be interesting to see how they compare in gross margin.
It would make a lot more sense to colonize a space station than to colonize Mars. The resources are about the same and the living quarters are about the same. The big difference is that you can return from one of them, but not the other.
JTF - First of all, kind words are always appreciated. But I'm not sure why you would disparage JMC. His opinions are typically backed with data and are well thought out. And he knows a lot more about investing than I ever will. Although not all of us will reach the same conclusions, certainly JMC offers some intelligent discussion on this board.
LR - I too am very interested in what the VIN's tell us in the upcoming month. Tesla is now requiring a 7 day waiting period between ordering and confirmation. So if people are shifting their MS orders to the new model offerings, we're not really going to see it for another week. There's almost nothing to report so far.
Regarding MX, it almost certainly has to be priced above a comparably equipped MS. I'm thinking about $8000 more. With that pricing, if they can ramp up production efficiently, it should minimize the "Osborne Effect."
Analysts can't even predict earnings more than 3 months into the future. They're still calling for Q3 to essentially break even. They won't update it until the Q2 report - then it will take a 60-cent haircut. And the full year estimate will get a second haircut in November. What a racket.
One more thing to consider for Q3 sales is the impact of the MX introduction. Right now, 100% of Tesla customers purchase MS. Once the MX becomes for realz with order confirmations, orders will be split between the two platforms. If MX manufacturing does not ramp up quickly, there could be a sag in the Q3 delivery rate. Of course they could make it up in Q4 with a large number of MX backorders and a factory capable of producing 2000/wk.
For those interested in Canadian sales, there's a site that has official information. Go to goodcarbadcar and select Tesla from the dropdown search menu. Once you get past the disappointment that it's a 2013 article, keep scrolling down to the tables, which are current. The June number isn't in yet, but YTD thru May is 742.
They also estimate US sales, but the estimates look about 1,000 too high (thru June). I think the InsideEVs estimate is much closer.