"so does this basically confirm that US orders have been filled?"
Yes, it does (except for the penny-pinchers who ordered coil suspension). The US orders have all been assigned VIN's. Most will be delivered by 6/30; some deliveries will spill into July.
How about Canadians? They also have their VIN's assigned. Signatures will be delivered in June and Production series in July.
How about Europeans? They also have their VIN's assigned. Signatures will be delivered in June/July and Production series in July/August.
And now the Chinese? If they are ready to ship to China, then the VIN's have already been assigned. Any evidence? Yes, I saw a Chinese customer VIN assigned in mid-April.
So who's missing in the 10,000 VIN's assigned to date? Apparently only the right-hand-drive markets. Of those, only UK and HK will be measurable. Will it even make sense to produce them?
Honestly, how would you like to be the new VP of Manufacturing in charge of rolling out Elon's 10x improvement?
For a company that just announced a 10x manufacturing efficiency improvement, today's stock action was rather disappointing. Imagine if Ford made a similar announcement. The stock would have doubled overnight.
Elon would be delighted if they could achieve one sigma quality on the Model X. In any case, it would be a good target to shoot for, even if he comes up short.
"How will TSLA do better than Nissan?"
They will operate their battery plant 10 to 100 times more efficiently than Nissan.
Let's have a peek at the early results. Two precincts reporting this morning.
Sweden reported 24, down from 77 a year ago.
Netherlands reported 19, down from 129 a year ago.
Although alarming on the surface, I wouldn't read too much into it. The third month of the quarter is always the big one.
"Musk said he and his Tesla team will completely rethink the factory process, hoping to bring “factors of 10 or even 100 times” in improvements in efficiency to the manner in which “you build the machines that build the machine.” Musk, returning repeatedly to the idea of “physics-first principles,” said he no longer uses an office at Tesla, but spends all of his time on the production line. That exercise has shown him methods by which production capacity could be increased exponentially, he said, by applying those principles. “The most important point I want to make is … that we’ve realized that the true difficulty and where the greatest potential lies is in building the factory,” Musk said.
OK, how many months to start of production? And he's already envisioning the factory?
Wow, just Wow! Kind of makes you feel sorry for his competitors.
Yes, that's about what I'm thinking. But the total may be closer to 5,000 since many of the currently-assigned US deliveries will spill into Q3. It will be interesting to see where the VIN's settle out this week. I'm thinking that virtually all of the worldwide orders will be be converted to VIN's. Only the 5-seaters and coil suspension customers are being left behind. We should have a much clearer picture in 5 days or so.
"I Have Altered The Deal; Pray I Don't Alter It Any Further"
(credits to Montana)
It looks like Tesla is catching up on all of the Production EU MX VIN's this week. How many? There were 4400 sequential reservations; add 20% since then; assume 33% yield. It should be right around 1750.
Asia/Pacific should be almost as much, let's say 1500. The vast majority of these should be delivered in Q3.
It's probably not something that they need to do. But it's very popular with customers. Not unlike free supercharging. Tesla is all about the customer experience.
Here's the headline from Scientific American: "Unreal Video From Latest SpaceX Rocket Landing"
Apparently they don't think it's real, either.