"It takes 6 months to a year to order a Tesla car."
Actually, they're running less than 24 hours from order confirmation to VIN assignment. Delivery 6 weeks after that. All models. Plant capacity is "over 1000 per week".
If you prefer a used car, there are literally tons of them. Over 90 in one Chicago location alone! Check the TMC forum.
Yes, the guidance for next quarter is 12000, well within the capacity of the factory (as was 10030). But as JMC points out, the chatter on the forums does not support that order rate. We'll see how the quarter unfolds. Maybe China will be provide the needed growth.
55% year-over-year sales growth is impressive, but Elon has really set the bar much higher than that. Has anyone calculated the sales growth needed to reach 55,000 in 2015? The answer is that they'll need to average 80% y-o-y growth in each of the remaining 3 quarters!
Assuming that they reach 55,000, how close are they to profitability? If ZEV credit sales are similar to last year, they should just about break even on Non-GAAP. For Tesla haters who prefer GAAP, they'll lose about $3 per share in 2015.
"Note the "Boosted its advertising" statement."
Last year, Tesla spent $1,545 per car on advertising and promotions.
The guidance was that 40% of the 55,000 would be delivered in the first half. They will need 12,000 next quarter to stay on track. So are they on track?
If you judge by the forum chatter and VIN reports, it seems very unlikely that Q2 will match Q1, much less exceed it. They entered Q1 with 10,000 pending reservations and 1400 "almost delivered". The reservation backlog is starting this quarter at essentially zero. Confirmed orders go directly into the build schedule. In my opinion, only a huge turnaround in China could carry them to 12,000.
Sales numbers are arriving from the north and working their way south. So far:
Country, 1Q15, 1Q14
Norway, 1532, 2056
Sweden, 138, 34
Finland, 19, 13
Netherlands, 420, 207
In the final tally, Q1 should look very much like last year.
"This company has so many writeoff each quarter its not even funny."
You mean you didn't get a chuckle out of the $94.1M non-GAAP adjustment last quarter? Elon did!
"if Tesla has not kept its GAAP loss below $150MM for Q1"
With the updated numbers, the ol' spreadsheet is showing $159MM GAAP loss. But with modest ZEV credit sales, they could beat 150.
The good news is that the 500 cars will add $12M to bottom line profits. Remarkably, my spreadsheet now predicts a $0.52/share non-GAAP loss. Exactly in in line with analysts' estimates.
Maybe it's the Tesla analysts that need to be protected from the sales numbers. In any case, the numbers should not be made public.
"but I can't find anything yet????"
And you won't find anything official until the Shareholder's letter comes out in early May. Elon protects us from monthly numbers because we're not savvy enough to interpret them correctly. It's best for us that way.
To hit 3500 in Europe, they'll need 1220 from countries other than Norway in March. In Mar 2014, there were 700. So far, Finland has reported 11 (up 57%), so that's a good start.
"Are you referring to Tesla's 9,500 guidance?"
Yes, I think they'll be very close to that number. Norway came in higher than I expected in March, otherwise I'd be predicting something closer to 9,000.
Unless Elon's guidance was totally bogus, they should come in with a $172M GAAP loss. Non-GAAP should improve it to an $80M loss, which is in line with analyst estimates. If ZEV credits sales are strong, there might even be a surprise.
DV, I didn't have a chance to respond sooner to your follow-ups:
How do you think the following will negatively affect gross margin:
(1) Sub-optimal production rate Jan/Feb
(2) Kr/$ pain from 1500 or so total deliveries to Norway at Fall 2014 pricing
(3) Discounts in China to move stuck inventory
As you surmise, these factors are huge. Assembly plants have huge fixed costs, so they really need to keep product rolling through the plant. They need to maintain a certain line rate just to break even on expenses. The profit/loss line is very steep at the break-even point. Norway is certainly the most important of all foreign markets, but they’re in trouble with most currencies. If this comes out of revenues, then gross margin will suffer. But maybe foreign exchange gets buried further down the balance sheet. And of course discounts for inventory cars, whether in China or the US, comes directly out of gross margin. So yes, GM will be under great pressure this quarter. Maybe an infusion of ZEV credits will help.
I think they're going to be very close to guidance. (I previously estimated about 500 lower). Norwegian deliveries look strong, maybe around 1150 in March. In the US, I'm seeing several April deliveries pulled into March, and only a few slipping the other way.