In my opinion, Texans are being punished for not allowing Tesla direct sales.
OK, it's time to move on from SpaceX and get back to Tesla. I've said before that at some point in time, Tesla's plant capacity will exceed the rate at which orders are coming in. And when that happens, there will no longer be a feast/famine of VIN assignments. Instead, the VIN assignment rate will be a true indication of the actual order rate. Well that time seems to have arrived.
Here's what I'm seeing. For the last full month, the typical time from order confirmation to VIN assignment has been running at 1 day. This not end-of-the quarter blitz time; the Model S order backlog is truly zero. The other important piece of information is the order rate. Ordinarily, I don't read too much into short term trends, but for the past two weeks, the assignment rate has dropped off to about 9,000/qtr (from 12,000/qtr). And this number should have been bolstered by the introduction of the 70D.
The bottom line is that orders are looking somewhat anemic right now. Selling 12,000 in Q2 (per guidance) seems improbable. Selling 15,000 in Q3 and 18,000 in Q4 seems fictional. Something will need to change to increase demand.
In Ontario, no need to estimate. On Gridwatch, you can monitor power generation real time. As we speak, 64% nuclear, 23% hydro, 8% gas, 5% wind, 0.2% "other" (mostly biofuel). Solar doesn't show up on the radar despite numerous solar farms operating.
It's really disappointing that Tesla is so committed to smoke-and-mirrors tactics. For some reason, they feel the need to stretch everything to an absurd limit. It makes no sense.
Often during the end-of-the-quarter delivery blitz, we see a handful of California cars that are confirmed and delivered within a month. Now we are seeing it mid-quarter. There is a customer on the TMC forum reporting that he confirmed on Mar 23 and is scheduled for delivery on Apr 23. In my opinion, that's bigger news than home battery storage.
Just when you thought it was dead, it turns out that battery swapping is now being offered to private individuals. It only costs $80 for a round-trip swap. It takes 10 minutes for the swap, after an initial modifications to the vehicle. Swaps must be set up by appointment.
Where are the nay-sayers now?
Battery swapping makes sense if it garners ZEV credits. But as a stand-alone enterprise, it's a big time money loser. Tesla is smart enough to do the calculation.
"but even then, I don't see it."
Can you get there if you include 5 years of fuel savings in the advertised price? Some manufacturers include that.
March Tesla sales have set records in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden. Together with Norway's strong showing, they are poised to establish a new EU sales record for the month and for the quarter.
I wonder how the 1 cent earnings for 2015 is calculated. It looks to me like they'll be losing 50 cents per quarter for the first 3 quarters. So $1.50 EPS in the 4th quarter? Anyone believe that?
It looks like June will be another end-of-quarter blockbuster. A lot of deliveries scheduled for May went out by rail and are only being delivered now. Let's see if Tesla continues rail transport for customers east of the Rockies. And there were tons of "Late June" deliveries. Many of these are already in customers' driveways. One guy in Denver had his delivered 19 days after confirmation! Expect more of these stories as June progresses.
In Europe, sales through May look healthy so far. Belgium surprised with 75 in May while Switzerland was a little disappointing at 70. Again, there are a lot of "Late June" deliveries scheduled in Europe. I expect that Q2 will wind up similar to Q1's 3750 units.
I'd like to provide a VIN update, but I've only seen 11 so far this month. I have some ideas about what's going on, but there's not enough data to predict a trend just yet.
For anyone interested in how the CPO sales are doing, there is a sensational series of posts on the TM Model S forum. I have data envy - It makes my VIN spreadsheet look pale in comparison.
I took your advice and cashed in, doubling my money. What do you think is a good entry price to get back in? Right now, I'm thinking .002. Any more news coming?
Having already celebrated the anniversary of the BNA Act, I'm now off to celebrate the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. But before I go, I want to offer up a topic for discussion.
The Model S order rate in the past few weeks has declined significantly. It was bolstered in Q2 by folks in Washington and Georgia, but now has dropped to about 750/week. Is there anything that Tesla can do in Q3 to increase the order rate prior to the launch of the X?
The move is consistent with Tesla's corporate mission to make EV's increasingly unaffordable.
There are only a few scenarios where home battery storage makes sense. You either need to be an off-gridder, or your time-of-use rates need to have an extremely wide ratio. And there are more cost effective home solutions than Li-ion. To sell a million, Tesla will need to have really, really good sales people.
To prove that you're not a robot, please type the code you see in the box.
"Envision Solar CEO Desmond Wheatley told CNET that the solar panels are the most efficient available, with solar energy conversion in the "high teens." Each station generates 3.3 kilowatts of electricity and includes a lithium ion battery pack module that stores 22.5 kilowatt-hours of electricity. Wheatley said the amount of electricity generated by the stations per day was good for 100 electric vehicle miles."
"Envision Solar sells the charging stations for $45,000 each, although Wheatley pointed out that taxpayers are willing to knock 30 percent off the price."
Why would anyone buy energy from a coal-fired plant at 0.12/kWh when you can get free energy from the sun?
I'm old enough to remember when there were 6 hockey teams, 9 planets, and global cooling. The scientific community was outraged that the government would take no steps to address it.