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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

tennisgreg2004 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 31, 2015 2:43 PM Member since: Nov 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    beat on eps

    by chicosan3 Jul 30, 2015 9:02 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 31, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Watford doesn't need to play kiss #$%$ to the dingbat analysts. He's confident in his decisions and you're either with him or not. Other E&P's are bleeding cash a lot worse. He answered the debt question many times.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 30, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Every quarterly call reminds me why I invested in Ultra to begin with. Watford is without question the sharpest mind in the room. He's not the least bit rattled by the weasel analysts pushing their agenda.

    It's clear that equity prices on NG companies are out of whack. This is a huge buying opportunity for the longterm investor.

  • Reply to

    oil draw was big

    by chicosan3 Jul 29, 2015 10:47 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 29, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Yes, and perhaps more importantly, the weekly production for lower 48 was down 145K brls. I think this is what the market has been waiting on for a long time. It's been late arriving, but the trend should continue.

    Meanwhile UPL is still under performing. The word is out on a #$%$ 2Q.

  • Reply to

    hey tennis

    by chicosan3 Jul 22, 2015 8:05 PM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 28, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    SWN is flying high today on a 2Q loss which was worse than expectations. Hard to explain this one, except to say the market had priced in a worse case. Meanwhile UPL underperforms yet again. We are an equal opportunity underperformer...down days and up days. Let's see what Thurs brings. Everyone else is losing money so if we turn a profit that should propel us up 20%.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 25, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Cabot Oil and Gas just reported a 2Q loss of 07/share. All the gas they are pumping in the Marcelleus and they can't earn a dime. They're one of the biggest offenders in the Natural Gas Industry; destroying prices with non stop production increase. Let's hope their shareholders push them to wise up now.

  • Reply to

    hey tennis

    by chicosan3 Jul 22, 2015 8:05 PM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 23, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    Yes, Watford has lost a boatload but he remains a very, very wealthy man. He's been paid extraordinarily well for the past 15 years, so I'm not shedding any tears for him. His big mistakes were entering the oil game late and then not hedging any oil for 2015. We're saddled with debt now at the worst possible time. We need natty to rise steadily into the winter so we can hedge again close to $4. I like our chances. Oil is the big unknown. So much BS floating around on the oil story it's impossible to know what's real and whats not. Personally, I'm with T Boone on a recovery to $70 by year end.

  • Reply to

    My understanding is UPL has B/e cost of 2.80 mcf

    by mrs_schit Jul 22, 2015 12:45 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 22, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    93% NG production volumes. Oil was 25% of the Revenue a few quarters back. not as much today.
    The oil move is what's killing us. We get about 85% of WTI, which today amounts to 43/brl. I have to believe we're losing money at these levels. The question is what to do now? Do we shut it in and carry the cost of the property while hoping for better prices soon. Or do we produce at a loss, like everyone else, for the sake of cash flow.

    Watford resisted getting into the oil game for a long time. Unfortunately, he lost his conviction and got in at the worst possible time. Nevertheless, I don't believe prices can stay this low for too long. Something's gotta give.

  • Reply to

    EPI up 2.5M

    by drxinfeng Jul 22, 2015 10:30 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 22, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Imports were up a whopping 587/day from last week, at almost 8 million /day. That's the highest I've seen this year. Otherwise we'd have a drawdown. Refiners are smart to load up on inventory now while the prices are dirt cheap. They know it cant last. Just like when you see a great deal at Costco you buy a few extra. Same thing happening.

  • Reply to

    WHEN WILL THE DROP IN RIG COUNT MATTER?

    by billythart Jul 21, 2015 7:17 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 21, 2015 7:31 AM Flag

    When the count goes from 1 rig to 0.

  • Reply to

    Stomach troubles..

    by neiljneil Jul 20, 2015 2:19 PM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 20, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Mr Watford, who holds 3-4 million shares, is not having the same stomach problems. His lifestyle is not changing one bit. He's been paid about 100 million over the last decade and here we are at a fresh 10 year low on the stock. Sure all the E& P's are getting hammered, but few as bad as us. What does that tell you? We are treated like the worst of the worst shale fly by night operation. Mr Market hates UPL.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 20, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    If UPL shares keep falling at this rate we'll hit zero in August. Then we won't have to suffer a fresh beating everyday.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 19, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    News out today that Saudi oil exports are down big, despite their record production. They are burning massive amounts of oil to generate power and make refined product. Shrinking exports.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 19, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    News out today that Saudi Arabia exports are down. They are burning tons of their own oil to generate power in the heat. Shrinking exports despite their record production. Now, how can the BS media spin this one tomorrow into bearish news for oil?

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 16, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Does anyone think Watford should be replaced? He's been the Man for a long time and UPL stock is at 10 year low. Sure, it's been tough in this commodity environment, but not all peers are sitting on 10 year lows. Others have fared better. So I ask you,,, will you be voting your shares for new management?

  • tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 15, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    UPL is trading on the price of crude now, which is down big today. It's completely ignoring the natural gas rise of these past few weeks. Natty is pushing $3 and this is certainly better for UPL than $2.5. Sooner or later it will be reflected in the share price.

  • tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 13, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    UPL needs an asset sale to lighten the debt load. Watford said so much in the last conference call. The stock is being punished relentlessly as a result of this. Why not sell what's left in the Marcelleus? Gas is practically free there now anyways. Or how about something radical and sell the oil property? It's losing money now with WTI at $52 and Ultra sees a 10-20% discount on that. I don't care if we get smaller, as long as we're more profitable and out of debt.

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 10, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    I think some news is about to break.. NG was up another 2% today, oil flat, and we;re down another 5% and falling fast. I suspect some news is coming out that is not yet public. Perhaps a secondary equity offering? Or maybe word is out that 2Q was a dud? In any case, there is no love for this stock not sitting at a fresh 10 year low. You would think at these levels an officer might buy a few shares....

    They need to adjust to the new normal of $2 ng and $50 oil. Spare us the powerpoints of $4 and $5 natural gas. Mgmt needs to take a huge paycut, capex should be lowered drastically and lay off everyone possible.

  • Reply to

    One of these days UPL will just 10%.

    by stockbug2010 Jul 10, 2015 10:28 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 10, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    The CEO (Watford) has been paid extraordinarily well for a long time. Well above his peers. Yet one has to wonder why. Have we side-stepped and pitfalls? Are we performing any better than our peers? We're at a 10 year low now. I believe he holds 3-4 million shares. One can assume he's comfortable and not feeling too much pain.

  • Reply to

    One of these days UPL will just 10%.

    by stockbug2010 Jul 10, 2015 10:28 AM
    tennisgreg2004 tennisgreg2004 Jul 10, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    They need to face the reality that prices are not rising anytime soon. Please stop showing us slides with NG at $4. Start making a plan to thrive in the new normal of $2.50 NG and $50 oil. Cut capex to bare bones, lay-off 30% of the workforce and force management to take a huge pay cut.
    We're sitting at a 10 year low. How much money has the CEO been paid in the last 10 years?

  • tennisgreg2004 by tennisgreg2004 Jul 8, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    The pain continues. I hope our "good management" has a plan to survive the new normal of $2 ng and $50 oil. Slash capex to bare bones and layoff all non-essential labor. Mr. Watford should work for free until the shares recover. T

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