A couple of points on Arikace
Arikace offers the advantage of time(is money) over current regimes. Currently TOBI take 40 minutes and then additional time to clean the device, where Arikace takes 13 min to administer. Many patients take a couple of hours with therapy for CF.TOBI nebulizer is big bulky and a plug in, Arikaces nebulizer is battery powered and small. Compliance will be better with Arikaces regime The TOBI podhaler is better and will be able to compete even with 2 treatments.-dry powder and uses batteries, its effectiveness slightly worse than standard TOBI
I don't know if Arikace will display superiority but there is competition from the above TOBI podhaler and generic TOBI in late 2014. Insmed will be up against pharma giants Gilead and Novartis (who may just take them out if superiority and acceptance eventually comes. A buyout would happen before market penetration would be seen. Either way big pharma would know before most anyone else
more later .................
Safe to say I was completely on the money on how valuable Iplex was to Insmed.The initial rights deal money spent last year and a 11M to sell off Iplex for ROP, as oppossed to the constant clown drone of Huge! money rights 500 M drug etc , todays 10k and CEO statement should hopefully put most of the iplex spam to rest.
The latest pablum on ALS (from the CCgroup ALS worldwide ( who doesnt say important FDA comments about Iplex)is more about trial design and the promise of genetic testing. That kind of test is years away at best.
That said, Insmed is getting their ducks in a row.They have added and will add people to drive the road to approval. They have money but imho will do a dilution or partner after NTM decision on a phase3 trial.
CF trial in the US decision based on Europe results will also have to be made so there are big risks and bigger payoff down the road .....dont bet the farm
The INSM uptrend chart (the first in a very long time for Insmed) and the timing of analysts is no
accident.Analysts have their OWN agenda.The short interest has been adding.
I will only day trade INSM if volume appears but for me,there are far better stocks to trade. like .............. ANAC - ) Good Luck
Arikace and... Part 2
Arikace showed the advantage over other therapies with the off treatment cycle with an initial drop in FEV of 1% but with recovery by the end of 56 day of treatment.
Off label extension studies showed continued benefit but is clinically anecdotal
The trial doe not have to show superiority, so the bar is lower than a limbo dancer. Arikace improvement over TOBI in Phase2 by a good margin (11 to 7%),as far as regulatory , superiority is what Lewis is calling "compelling" imho
and therein is one of the risks , as this compelling data must be achieved to benefit NTM. imho I expect Arikace to show non-inferiority to TOBI
The market potential beyond the nonsense here is Wedbushs and close Cannacords 25% -30% by 2018 for 75+ M worldwide
It remains to be seen what market Arikace develops , Europe is relatively small and socialist controlled market (25M+),other countries will take time.
Of note in the real world of cost per year is a full monetary measure that no one uses. Arikace in many cases will be part of a regime.
Trail Risks and safety - moderate dysphonia was seen in a relatively low % 8-10% but Phase3 tials have a good way of showing therapy problems and risks.
aint puttin up my trades
as far as other indications - years money dilutions delays disappointment competition takeover and simple science- investors should take with a grain of salt
hopefully Insmed will get 11 Million, and the iplex #$%$ will stop here.Good Luck to Shire in ROP development.The 20 M debt the burn rate doubling...there will be a dilution. The company is developing Arikace and only Arikace.The company will need to see data to see if they can file GAIN - that clever wording shows Will has the stuff for these calls
ps- the trade ? the clowns said at least 10 bucks!...watch
Fud cant read....actually posts about things she has no idea.....
. JCP _ RIGHT NOW triggered on 2's !!!!!!!!!!!!
"I'm currently in discussion with the global Stop TB Partnership, advising them how they should redesign their various therapeutic regimens now that Arikace is available.
When they've finally grasped what they should be doing I'll get in touch with Insmed and give them the benefit of my advice."
Would $165 a share be a fair buyout valuation?
The expectation that the share price will go from the current level to $600 is entirely realistic. Rating :
(9 Ratings)Rate it: fudfighter
The dog trial results have been built in the share price around $6.70 which is the price of the merger.The iplex farce here has now been proven for what it always has been since the company dropped the drug in 2009, for 11 million in rights.,not billions from the clown car.NTM is an orphan drug with a small population.Extrapolating out because of "possible or potential" additional markets is an exercise in hypothetical nonsense from the biggest spammers here.The risk to investors is NTM is required to do a Phase3 trial,which no one knows, including the company if that is the future of Insmed...for a couple more years.....and before you tell me it wont happen,put that very real possibility in your risk collumn, I guarantee those who are paying 67 cents are.
Hope you took my Christmas advice seriously- a few here did
:to Aaron ( zake1) ACAD Dec 22,2012 ACAD - Acadia DD and average in
(note the price was around 5 dollars. My position was already well established) ...Aaron probably deleted it and bought a far bigger risk INSM
ADXS kvncmcdd been in 6 years and owns a ton.-"kvnmccdd • Feb 6, 2013 9:44 PM Flag
Wow this is amazing news ADXS might have a treatment or cure for cervical cancer! Phase 2 trials
Put this one on your watch list. This one will be $2.00 one day.You`ll never find a better risk reward play than ADXS in the entire market!"
Well chem, the share price is .06 cents they have a debt of 4 M No rev and down to their last 100K
and only 537 Million shares !
You can pick em pal!
Comments like "judge for yourself if Phase3 trials will be positive " are silly.
The " slam dunk " of so many drugs that get to Phase3 because of "stellar Phase2 results
and then fail because of the scope of the trial and then ...shocked!
IN 2009 I was a basher but - trading - showed me most believed MMD would be a failure ( say nothing of Dr Allens comments.)
Not traders or medical people,their "bets " are about 2 completely different companies 2 management teams and different drugs but they are still buying a STOCK called INSM. They finally want to "be right"! about buying this stock!
"The big boys (sic) that will watch from the sidelines will average in,not risk money.
Can you be long ands short to protect yourself ."exactly what they "big boys have been doing since liquidity was added.A couple of trades can make up any explosive move , that I guarantee will be "manipulated back" so then big money can SAFELY come in.
Maybe the FDA wants a US trial? dilution please...... - the risks are just getting started . CF in Europe is the smallest of markets.
Long? have put insurance.
jmho - )
kvncmcdd(eyegiggle) will persist if you give his blcht notice. In fact he has invested poorly ....Insmed is down 90% since he started INSM over a decade ago...His "best bet in bio ADXS is down to.05 cents and as we like to call him on the INSM bd... a clown.
Traders took out the stops this morning.Genomic Health is a strong long term investment- ignore the short term clown
INSM chart is an obvious short and has been .....but since INSM is a news driven stock a change can happen rapidly.If you are timing you know that the last couple of months has been an easy trade in INSM.
jmho- energy stocks are a great safe haven if you are staying in the market. biotech sector has been on a tear the last 2 years, Insmed has been flat.
"you...posting that we should see $600 per share in the next few years, and why isn't INSM at $100+ now. "
Actually Evelyn asked? why not 500 or 600 next year" ( last year))).Her $20 by years end(2012) and her $50 dollars after the dog results I used to think were just taunting,but the HGSI analogy says it all....
I have her on Ignore.
a lot of best case scenarios by Will. It'll never happen in less than 2 years on anything, even a restricted label should the FDA let all the "compelling data" sway them for CF.
Insmed is completely blinded to the data.
Risk up this morning guaranteed.
Will is quickly developing a Mojo,and reality should be seen with this call.
Bravo , Will
1k +.33 PRAN and out
dare I say anything to anyone that misconstude but the chart will test another level and I will look to cover most as there are just too many better buys in the market
YTD - Up 23% short since $7.81
Get over it.The hype that our clowns fud kvncmcddfud jesse have finally met with reality.
Perhaps now other opinions will be allowed. How many possible good posters left beause of these billion dollar wonders?A physician who added here briefly said in 2010 that Arikace was a 5 year(aprx) investment and was spammed down by the likes of Evelyn , who with todays news keeps her perfect record of being 100% wrong.
Dont pile on the blsht Jesse, Arikace has a good possible future not the next great thing.If successful with the 2 indications,hopefully Insmeds pipeline will expand... 4 - 5 years ?? ....easily
today the same ones who have lost so much in Insmed,.. make believe continues. Investors looking at the company dont mention(nor does Insmed in investor presentations) Iplex.
Good Luck to those that wish Arikace success.
YTD + 22% on the sidelines.. there is a trade setting up perfectly.
deja vu all over again? a triple? 6-Jan-12 06:31 am
In 2009 I tripled my money in INSM.
First quarter 2009 the low was forming and I posted buy technicals,the call was very close to the bottom around 45 cents+-.
I was holding for about 2-3? months when a strong signal arrived.
It was Dr Allans "we dont want to be a 1 drug risk statement" Dr Allan (RIP) telegraphed that Insmed was about to drop Iplex.Many posters questioned why Insmed would be looking for a new drug? why would they stop HARS, MMD?.Of course we were "bashers"...I took my money in late May I think. I was "a fool " to get out but 300% in a short period is fine by me.
I posted the questions and saw the short position exploding,,nope! I was a basher and would "miss the move to 50 dollars soon! (as it turned out it was 2009 and the stock went to 24.50 so I could have had a 6 bagger but I had no idea when the shoe would drop....)
I haven't posted for exactly 30 days.Understandable the jealousy
just a few words for you
you are on the GHDX board because "terry "is....and look just as stupid.