This looks like it could be heading down the tubes. I would bet a lot of money that the divvy will be cut very soon as the pressure from debt holders ratchets up!! ALL THAT SAID, I would not short the stock here as a "wild card" is always a "takeout" by someone who might genuinely get "synergies." Perhaps an Herbalife??
Looking over your track record through the years, you have gotten into a pile of "value traps" and you demonstrate a dangerous characteristic for an investor....you get emotionally involved and if your words can be taken at face value, you then double down on your losers sometimes. I have seen you on tons of boards because I screen for "net net" stocks and apparantly so do you. Why you would be defending someone who was an apologist for Forcefield Energy and is a paid "cleaner" is beyond me.
In case you don't realize it, this is his/her profession!!
That is the most ignorant financial statement I have ever heard and proves that you are a real "tyro." At any given moment (if you exclude tax-planning) you are free to sell a stock and have cash instead of the stock. Not selling the stock at a given price is IDENTICAL to the decision to buy the stock at that price. Along with that facile idea is that you HAVE, lost money if the stock has gone down, even if you do not sell. I guess they didn't teach you the same things they taught Ackman at Greely??
They have many more "issues" to work their way through. Probably best to re-name their entire operation...but then again, the founder likes to sell "good wood at good prices" (great strategy....sarcasm).
And some on this board would have you buy even more pain!!
Only caveat is that it probably also represents fairly low revenue business (notwithstanding high margins) and people are putting too much expectation (as they do with all stocks) on next quarter...when EVOL needs a longer horizon to judge their success. However, I have been adding to an already large position on the days where there is a motivated seller.
They committed to maintaining the dividend and have plenty of cash on the balance sheet . In addition they have a 21% shareholder whose son is on the Board and I am sure they want to keep collecting the cash. The company has shown the ability to generate more than is needed for the current dividend over longer periods of time, so "short" quarters like this are not indicative of the dividend being in danger.
Looks like they will have a meh 2015. Talked about it looking like 2013 where they were soft in the first half of the year, ramped up bookings in the 2nd half (which Dupper said was their focus this year) and then translated the bookings into sales in 2014 (which they hope to do in 2016!). Stay till August 21, collect the divvy and then decide if you want to wait till next May for 1st Q 2016 or punt.
I found the article to be "thin soup" and wonder why the author even bothered. He doesn't seem to understand the business, provides links to EVOL materials to explain, does a DCF and concludes that the stock should be $9.30-$9.70 while using comparisons to companies whose earnings statements are nowhere near as "clean" as EVOL's and the author also uses a 7.5% growth rate?????
This is pretty convoluted, but the involvement of INSV "corrupts" any chance of my keeping my QLT stock. Their track record is one of destroying shareholder value and while the new venture (independent of INSV) sounds interesting, I am not a 5-10 year venture person. Happy to get the bounce and cash out.
225,000 shares is huge for this stock, along with the uptick on a bland day?? Is this due to the Maxim rec or is there something else out there??
If the earnings really stink then it will be clear that someone was "in the know" on this for the past 40 days dumping stock continuously. There will certainly be a letter to the SEC with the trading pattern/chart, the recent PRs, the "upgrade" from B. Riley and then they can see who the motivated seller has been. Of course that assumes that anyone there cares; although they do pick "random" instances to investigate.
Even with Brettt (although they have plied him with some goodies too) hanging around the top 3 have pulled out $100mm from Nuance in salary and stock value over the past 3 years. Disgusting.
Why do you own this stock if you are such a nervous nelly on it?? This will be "lump" Q to Q and also, since the float is thin, it will move violently over a week or two if someone needs to sell (for ANY reason.) Buy Cisco or Microsoft if you want a steadier stock. They keep telling you that business is doing well and over the course of a year, just look back to see how they did (rather than Q to Q or UNLESS they...or technology indicate something is changing and thus you should re-appraise.) Hold it for a few years. You will be happy with your compounded annual return including dividends. They are a VERY shareholder-friendly company and I have owned the stock for over a decade and seen how sharp they are!!
If it turns out that their quarter is weak, I intend to submit detailed trading data for today and any subsequent days on which there is this kind of selling as it would imply that the seller was privy to insider information.