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Optical Cable Corp. Message Board

tesiman 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 11, 2016 3:45 PM Member since: Nov 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Year in Review

    by tesiman Dec 25, 2013 10:15 PM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 11, 2016 3:45 PM Flag

    Well, over 3 years later and OCC and nothing good has been accomplished.

    Anyone remember the offer for $6/share made by Superior Essex in 2006? Ten years later the stock is trading at a 66% discount to the offer price and present management is still in control and making the same excuses.

  • Reply to

    Legal Analysis

    by tesiman Dec 10, 2015 6:03 PM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 10, 2016 3:11 PM Flag

    I believe that this analysis still holds true.

  • Reply to

    Contrarian indicator.

    by dsmith2626 Feb 10, 2016 11:38 AM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 10, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Cramer's comments were focused on the fact that LCI was in the pharma group which has been vilified by the gov't. He did say that the company was "good".

    The gov't is incapable of doing anything other than coming out with nasty sound bites on big bad pharma and rising health care costs. I have little doubt that they have the capacity to change the trend or materially affect the industry. The political hacks in Congress like to talk but accomplish nothing.

    Before you know it LCI will be over $50 again. The next time AB sets up a news conference, I suspect that he will come out with REAL positive news since he should have learned his lesson prematurely shooting from the hip. I believe that the synergies are present but it will take more time than we expected. As an investor, I will lick my wounds but not give up on LCI. Matter of fact, I bought more at this level and averaged down.

  • Reply to

    Risk /Reward

    by tesiman Feb 4, 2016 5:43 PM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 5, 2016 7:00 PM Flag

    I agree. The IP (patents) have substantial value. Even without the verdict the intrinsic value of the company (factoring in the cash in hand and real estate) should be in the $2+ range.

    I am surprised that the stock is so cheap given the imminent conclusion of the appeal. Upside is tremendous and downside is probably a decease of $1 in the PPS. I fail to see how BD can win anything other than the longshot of getting a remand on the damage claim as BD's liability is etched in stone.

    Keep in mind, there is also prospect of a settlement prior to oral argument or prior to the appeals court rendering a decision. Given Shaw's personality, I don't have much confidence that the case will be settled but anything is possible.

  • Reply to

    Risk /Reward

    by tesiman Feb 4, 2016 5:43 PM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 4, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    Judge Davis has NEVER been reversed on appeal- 81% affirmance and 19% remanded. I would call that a pretty enviable record and bodes quite well for RVP..

  • Reply to

    Just Repeating the Facts

    by tesiman Feb 14, 2015 8:26 PM
    tesiman tesiman Feb 4, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    important facts that needs to be repeated

  • tesiman by tesiman Feb 4, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    I have been buying at this level (+/-$2.80). I have been following the litigation since the jury verdict and have read all the pleadings that were made public. The probability of BDX overturning the verdict is quite low.

  • Reply to

    Just Bought More

    by tesiman Jan 27, 2016 11:54 AM
    tesiman tesiman Jan 27, 2016 11:56 AM Flag

    no reason "not" to believe that the synergies

    sorry

  • tesiman by tesiman Jan 27, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    If you listened to the conference call it is obvious that management was overly optimistic relative to recouping the lost revenues from the lost customer. On the other hand, there is no reason to believe that the synergies will soon be evident and the pipeline is considerable.

    I am an investor. Although the value of my holdings have declined substantially, I feel that this is the time to buy more since I believe in the company's future. Although there is a lot of talk by our politicians about reducing drug prices, just remind yourself of our totally ineffective Congress and its failure to get anything accomplished.

  • Reply to

    After Market Trading

    by tesiman Jan 26, 2016 5:25 PM
    tesiman tesiman Jan 26, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    24,500 of which were traded at $34.06 at 4:33 pm

  • Reply to

    After Market Trading

    by tesiman Jan 26, 2016 5:25 PM
    tesiman tesiman Jan 26, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    The call just ended. There were many substantive questions and substantive responses. For the most part the company was still very optimistic as to the prospects. Keep in mind that the 2nd quarter projections only represent a few weeks of the KU integration. By the 4th quarter, KU's contribution should be accretive.

    Right now LCI is operating on only 5 of its 8 cylinders. I believe we are looking at the low point as there should be steady improvement going forward.

  • there has been no volume- less than 4000 shares as of 5:15 pm

    I am listening to the conference call and have concluded so far that there were more glitches with KU than expected but they are being addressed.

  • tesiman by tesiman Dec 10, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Unless the weakness is related to year end tax loss selling, I question why there has been so much pressure on the stock given the fact that we are close to a determination on the appeal.

    I have not sold a share this year and will take my chances on the appeal.

  • tesiman by tesiman Dec 10, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    I believe they are in for about 3M shares and Mobley has ignored them. I suspect we will see a proxy fight .

    I bought another 15,000 shares today at $1.17-$1.18.

  • tesiman by tesiman Dec 10, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Hypothetically, if either EXXI or UPL is forced to file a Chapter 11 they are obligated to make timely post-petition payments under the lease agreements. Although they could move to "reject" the leases, they would be out of business since they have no alternative but to use CORR. If there was an alternative, they would still be subject to "rejection damages", i.e. they would be out of business. As such, the cash flow to CORR, regardless of a Chapter 11 filing, should continue unabated.

    I bought more today since I feel that the market reaction has been unjustified. The CEO just bought 1000 shares at $17.55.

  • Reply to

    Oppenheimer Conference

    by cs230man Dec 9, 2015 10:38 AM
    tesiman tesiman Dec 9, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    I am not a big fan of AB as the spokeman for LCI as he lacks the polish and oratory skills to impress Wall Street. On the other hand, his presentation was quite substantive as well as positive and re#$%$uring. LCI is a now very credible player and the synergies are there to really grow with a diversied portfolio of decent drugs. Arthur may not be slick (calling Sanders a "Communist" was silly) but he knows the generic drug business better then most.

    There clearly is a disconnect between the reality of Arthur's generic drug world where "favors" are common and investors who want hard and fast rules of engagement. It sounds like Arthur's world is like the wild west where the fastest gun wins the fight and getting shot in the #$%$ is no big deal.

    The delay as to guidance was understandable given his explanation. I trust the guy and he made it clear that he will put the house in order on an expeditierd basis.

    I have accumulated a very nice position, albeit at an average well above the current pps. I am not worried about the future of LCI. It is more "when" then "if".

  • appears to have been sold today around 10:30 am at $1.21

  • Reply to

    Oppenheimer Summary

    by tesiman Dec 9, 2015 11:07 AM
    tesiman tesiman Dec 9, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    I feel that the short term pressure on the stock is somewhat irrelevant as I purchased LCI for the long term. I am still pretty convinced that once the integration of Kremers is complete that LCI will be viewed as an acquisition target by Activis, Mylan, Perrigo Novartis or Teva- all of which would be interested and have the capacity to pay a big premium.

  • Just the facts:

    1. 101 products
    2. 3 pending FDA applications to be decided before Feb. 2016
    3. Still in acquisition talks with "Italian Co." but will first pay down debt from Kremer acquisition
    4. Narcotic drug industry on generic side is now up to $10b- this is LCI's specialty- one of only 7 importers of poppy straw which the FDA has set quotas
    5. Kremer synergies will be better then anticipated
    6. Financial guidance will be given by 2nd week of Jan. because they are still gathering and reviewing information
    7. Efforts in restoring lost business is going well and expects "significant back within the 1st quarter"
    8. Not all of the Kremer business from the one customer was lost
    9. Kremers adds a significant R&D expansion
    10. Expecting FDA approval in June for c-topical cocaine drug to be used for surgery and post-operative in the ENT realm
    11. still has over $100m in cash and $1.2b in debt

  • Nice sound bite by Mobley but, given his pathetic past performance, it does not guaranty real sales and profits.

OCC
2.21+0.03(+1.38%)Feb 12 3:19 PMEST