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Black Diamond, Inc. Message Board

tex7779 179 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Apr 9, 2001
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  • Reply to

    S&P lowers credit rating on SXE

    by remittekram Apr 2, 2016 11:29 AM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 2, 2016 10:12 PM Flag

    Recognizing that yahoo does not allow links - but how can we get verification of the confirmation hearing. I guess the simplest thing would be - what is the case number for the Holdings ch11?

  • Reply to

    Another market misunderstanding today...

    by bpy03 Mar 28, 2016 12:50 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 2, 2016 11:06 PM Flag

    Telly:

    The fact that the Tres Amigos ( Bonn, Alan, and Moxley ) have an employment contract that expires on Nov 1, 2016 is a pretty darn good indication that the new owners of Holdings have no need for them beyond that date. The only logical conclusion would be for Holdings to be sold by that date. Let's face it - once the $ 700 million in debt that Holdings had is gone - selling Holdings will be much easier.

  • Reply to

    S&P lowers credit rating on SXE

    by remittekram Apr 2, 2016 11:29 AM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 7:41 AM Flag

    Thanks

  • Reply to

    OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX !

    by cajun_pete Mar 25, 2016 12:40 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 7:56 AM Flag

    Pete:

    Are you aware that 30 trading days means six weeks of trading - not a calendar month. Five tradings days per week, requires six weeks to get to the 30 trading days.

  • You can do a search for - ethane crackers online in 2017 and 2018. Then, one of the first links that comes up is an article by Platts Analytics - clearly the main people to track all things energy.

    There you will find a lengthy and excellent article, title - The long and short of ethane in the Northeast US, dated March 30, 2016. Some key parts of this article are these:

    " Projects that will increase ethane demand both domestically and for export continue to move forward, primarily in the US Gulf Coast. Eight ethane crackers are currently under construction on the Gulf Coast will come into service between 2017 and 2018. "

    " With demand growth on the Gulf Coast, Northeast ethane remains stranded without greater pipeline access. ATEX is set to reach capacity in 2018, and Enterprise has made no announcement of expansion plans. The only alternative destinations for Northeast ethane in the near term are Mariner West to Canada or on Mariner East for waterborne export, both of which are already subscribed. Because ATEX is the only pipeline serving the Gulf Coast, it is the best candidate for expansion to meet new domestic petrochemical and export demand. Without that expansion and with current production forecasts, ethane rejection could exceed 175,000 b/d in the Northeast in 2018. "

    " But even with ethane from the Rockies and Williston, without Northeast production, the US ethane market is short by just over 75,000 b/d by 2018. This ethane shortage would need to be made up through a combination of lower operating rates by existing petrochemical plants, delays for plants under construction, or reductions in export volumes. While this spring brought optimism for Northeast producers via a new market for their ethane, the lack of a domestic outlet looms on the not-so-distant horizon. "

    Bottom line; this will bode well for SXE going forward in 2017 and 2018

  • No doubt there was an account receivables accrual on the books at SXE for Q4-2015 and Q1-2016 for services rendered to Swift for which we have not gotten paid. With the March 30, 2016 approval of the Swift reorg plan by the judge some more funds should be coming in to SXE and said funds returned back to the revolver credit line.

  • Reply to

    OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX !

    by cajun_pete Mar 25, 2016 12:40 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    ok, thanks

  • Reply to

    Another market misunderstanding today...

    by bpy03 Mar 28, 2016 12:50 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    Totally agree. The majority of ch 11 reorgs that I have seen, had the former bondholders / banks - now being shareholders in Newco, start the process immediately to sell their Newco shares or the business as a whole to get their money back.

    Plus, let's keep in mind the Tres Amigos have their employment contracts run out on November 1, 2016. That means that they will announce the sale to company X in July or Aug this year for closing in October 2016.

  • Reply to

    S&P lowers credit rating on SXE

    by remittekram Apr 2, 2016 11:29 AM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    Let us not forget that it was S&P, along with the other rating agencies, who put AAA ratings on so many mortgage backed securities, MBS, back in the 2007 to 2008 time period that brought this country to its knees.

    They clearly put out credit ratings based on what other business leaders tell them to say, pure and simple.

    From my perspective, all of the three major credit agencies have lost all credibility.

  • We know from the Mar 22, 2016 8-K, that 2016 adjusted EBITDA is supposed to be about $ 86 million for SXE.

    What are those numbers for 2016 and 2017 for Southcross Holdings. We know that they have a few assets, such as the Robstown fractionator plus a gas processing facility in Frio county plus about 835 miles of pipeline. But - can someone determine from recent filings what the EBITDA will be coming from Holdings.

    The Holdings bk filing told us that $ 700 million in debt held by Holdings ( that included the preferreds ) will be converted into Newco stock with the old Holdings debt holders then owning 67% of the new company. In round numbers that looks like the debt holders valued the new and improved Holdings company at about $ 1 Billion - did I get that correct?

    Thus, what was the old debt burden on $ 700 million and how was Holdings paying for that knowing that they had their own EBITDA to pay for that plus whatever distributions they got out of SXE.

    Bottom line; what is the expected EBITDA for 2016 and 2017, if known for Holdings alone. TIA

    An extracted copy / paste from an official source would be great.

  • Reply to

    S&P lowers credit rating on SXE

    by remittekram Apr 2, 2016 11:29 AM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 3, 2016 6:55 PM Flag

    CK, you're spot on wrt to the Saudis. A colleague of mine in our Abu Dhabi office recently told me that the Yemen war is costing many lives to the few Saudi's that actually serve there and mostly the mercenaries that the KSA hires. In our Riyadh office we can hardly get anything done because we have to searching for the assigned Saudi " official ' to sign off on our progress. Seems they take a lot of breaks - and without the signoff from said " official ' we cannot get paid. Doing business in KSA is really tough. Our military has a much better job - they have the better military and the Saudis know it.

    No rational independent and non-government investment institution is going to " invest " in the Saudi government. MBS is clearly smoking some heavy stuff there. Sadly, his latest brainfart on Friday caused the price of oil to collapse by about 4%.

  • tex7779 tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 5:41 AM Flag

    Thanks. First, I am going to assume that the very low number for 2016 is due to the cost of covering the ch11 proceeding.
    Then, if we look at 2017 at $ 28.7 million and compare to 2019 of $ 61.8 million, that is a bit over double. Yet, SXE is expected to have 2017 at $ 102 million up to 2019 of $ 127.5 million. Trying to make sense of this as both Holdings and SXE play in the same field - except that SXE has also the NG pipeline business in Alabama and Mississippi.

  • tex7779 tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 5:47 AM Flag

    Cube: Respectfully disagree. If they had an employment contract of one year with the newly created Holdings company that would have been quite normal. But this very specific relatively short duration is very clear - Holdings does not need the Tres Amigos beyond November 1, 2016.
    We need to accept that which they have written.

  • Just ten trades over the course of one hour.

    Time ------ Price --- Volume

    13:42:32 $ 1.07 100
    13:17:17 $ 1.0735 300
    13:07:08 $ 1.0748 1,800
    12:55:19 $ 1.08 100
    12:39:14 $ 1.08 100
    12:35:25 $ 1.079 3,000
    12:21:11 $ 1.07 200
    12:17:59 $ 1.07 200
    11:50:18 $ 1.0701 440
    11:41:08 $ 1.09 100

    Looks like most folks are now waiting for the confirmation hearing at Holdings and more importantly for the 10-K for our SXE

  • Reply to

    Some really slow trading in SXE today

    by tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 2:41 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 2:43 PM Flag

    Dang, I meant ten trades over the course of TWO hours.

  • This makes absolutely no sense. The common goes up by 3.5% - good. But the LGCYO preferreds are closed down 8%, neither is paying a distribution - except the preferreds are cumulative, with the common a long way away from resuming distributions.

  • A bit more activity, but clearly mostly /. all by retail investors. About 46 trades in all for the last two hours of trading.

    NLS Time (ET) NLS Price NLS Share Volume
    15:59:34 $ 1.11 100
    15:59:34 $ 1.11 100
    15:59:05 $ 1.10 100
    15:57:42 $ 1.1002 999
    15:57:16 $ 1.13 1,400
    15:57:16 $ 1.12 100
    15:57:16 $ 1.11 100
    15:57:16 $ 1.11 100
    15:57:05 $ 1.09 400
    15:57:05 $ 1.1001 200
    15:57:05 $ 1.1001 1,855
    15:56:09 $ 1.09 1,348
    15:56:09 $ 1.12 100
    15:56:09 $ 1.12 100
    15:54:34 $ 1.13 100
    15:52:09 $ 1.11 200
    15:50:09 $ 1.1099 255
    15:45:13 $ 1.1099 9,491
    15:42:35 $ 1.09 100
    15:42:35 $ 1.09 100
    15:41:11 $ 1.09 100
    15:41:11 $ 1.09 100
    15:41:11 $ 1.09 100
    15:41:11 $ 1.09 200
    15:40:46 $ 1.09 10,800
    15:40:46 $ 1.09 100
    15:21:17 $ 1.1099 300
    15:21:17 $ 1.11 300
    15:21:17 $ 1.11 100
    15:21:17 $ 1.1099 100
    15:19:18 $ 1.097 200
    15:15:22 $ 1.09 100
    15:15:22 $ 1.0923 1,100
    15:00:33 $ 1.0933 300
    14:36:54 $ 1.10 4,000
    14:20:38 $ 1.09 717
    14:17:31 $ 1.13 200
    14:17:29 $ 1.13 1,650
    14:11:05 $ 1.1422 350
    14:10:25 $ 1.132 3,000
    14:02:34 $ 1.11 100
    13:59:46 $ 1.10 100
    13:59:46 $ 1.10 100
    13:59:46 $ 1.10 100
    13:59:46 $ 1.1061 1,283
    13:59:46 $ 1.1199 591

  • Reply to

    Trading in the last two hours today

    by tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 7:49 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 4, 2016 8:07 PM Flag

    Only two trades of 5,000 units or more, and one of 10,000 units or more, meaning this is primarily a retail day. Big money is not jumping in - yet.

  • Reply to

    OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX !

    by cajun_pete Mar 25, 2016 12:40 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 5, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    Just look at the disclosure filing by Holdings. After their reorg plan is put into place their annual debt service will be about $ 3 million a year - much less than SXE. Thus, it would make more sense for Holdings to drop down some assets - like the Robstown fractionator and have SXE issue new units to pay for them. Then, SXE will have a higher EBITDA level, getting us closer to a desired loan coverage ratio and avoid covenant default issues and equity cures.

  • Reply to

    OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX !

    by cajun_pete Mar 25, 2016 12:40 PM
    tex7779 tex7779 Apr 5, 2016 9:20 PM Flag

    John: In one word NO. Any drop down will require SXE to deliver a certain amount of $s - cash or units. If units are issued, yes there will be some dilution - but so what - we will gain EBITDA which SXE sorely needs, that that would be preferable to an equity cure .

BDE
4.38+0.24(+5.80%)Jul 1 4:00 PMEDT