""Will the USA ever default ???""
I agree Buzz the U.S will not default but, there is more than one kind of default. How about the debasement of the dollar you are talking about is that not another way of default? Will sell half of my XBI today. Thanks to Obamacare XBI went up fast since 2012.
""A bear market will follow this huge bull market.""
Nice to see someone here admit the fact that we have a bull market. Bears have been making excuses for 5 years why the market can't go up.
SDS down 90% and SSO up over 500% since the President said on TV that "stocks are a good deal"
""Tex pointed out that this happened in the post-WW2 bull market. If growth is accelerating, rates should rise.""
Yep, T-bonds bottomed at 2% after WW2 and rose with the DOW as the DOW went from 165 in 1948 to near 1000 in 17 years. If interest rates are rising for the right reasons the stock market will be fine. A new secular bull market in stocks in coming years requires a secular bear market in bonds and a “good” rise in interest rates.
Every stock breakout from a long multi year trading range has coincided with a secular inflection point in the bond market. Next year I think the low will be 1575 and high could reach 2200.
""""everyone should be buying uvxy here. not selling it. still got my 300 shares (was 3k). i expect to sell these at $200+ this summer."" - delta"" Jun 21
Still waiting for your post that you sold these delta. you're down 76% already. Instead you added to your UVXY position last month and lost another 18%.
Aapl this is the best post this year. I don't understand the anger here because low income workers want a raise. Won't a raise get some of these workers off of food stamps and other government benefits?
"""AS the minimum rises it will push up the next level of wages and rise in wages will actually help all businesses" Tex where are the facts to support this statement?""
I gave you one with the Mcdonald's example could you read the whole post?
Here's another one.
Henry Ford doubled the rate of his workers and the move proved very profitable. Ford explained the policy as profit-sharing rather than wages.
Now where are your facts? Are you going to tell us we'd be better off by lowering wages to 3rd world levels?
""So there's no point in asking him to calculate the financial consequences to taxpayers of social inequality""
You hit the nail on the head again Aapl.
Business can't afford to raise wages. That's the same argument always and everywhere. That's what I read yesterday as Bangladesh raised the minimum from $39 to $69 a month. Same as the U.S set the first minimum at $0.25 in 1938. Same when the slaves were freed. Same when business was told they couldn't use child labor. Same with Obamacare. Same in 2009 when the last minimum wage hike took effect. But since 2009 McDonald's has added over $40 billion in market cap. They can afford it. Businesses always want to have their costs as low as possible to compete.
AS the minimum rises it will push up the next level of wages and rise in wages will actually help all businesses.
""Yes the next reset, will be another interesting historical event, just as many historical events have happened over the past 1000 years.""
Buzz, glad you are back to posting again.
This has repeated throughout history wealth destroyed through natural disasters, wars, revolutions, depressions, expropriations, hyperinflation, default, or fraud. Since the last great wealth destroyer in this country was a deflationary depression and I think the government will try to avoid that at all cost. When the next recession hits we will see which way the government wants to go. Tough choices with zero bound interest rates. Anything will be possible, maybe a new 100 year T-bond @ 0% sold to the Fed.
Dome went from $6 in 1929 to $61 in 1936 and Homestake from $65 to $544 plus Homestake paid $171 in dividends during those years. But don't forget that during the depression the U.S government declared the possession of gold by individuals to be illegal.
#6. New research from the Manhattan Institute estimates that insurance rates for young men will rise by 99 percent. Rates for younger women will rise between 55 percent to 62 percent, according to the right-leaning New York think tank. CBS
So CBS reports right wingers think obamacare will cost more.
"Hardly a fundraising letter Apple/ Tex. Plan sold on lies or ignorance or both"
It looks like a cut and paste from the “Young Conservatives” news letter.
A lot has been said on both sides of this debate. I just looked a number 4.
"A sweeping national effort to extend health coverage to millions of Americans will leave out two-thirds of the poor blacks and single mothers and more than half of the low-wage workers who do not have insurance
"Because they live in states largely controlled by Republicans that have declined to participate in a vast expansion of Medicaid, the medical insurance program for the poor, they are among the eight million Americans who are impoverished, uninsured and ineligible for help. The federal government will pay for the expansion through 2016 and no less than 90 percent of costs in later years." from the same NYT article.
It will be interesting to see how this will play out in the up coming elections. The red states that supported GOP governors now will not get money to insure their citizens and that only seems fair.
""remember the good old days of daytrading when we talked about patterns like this? Guess the Holidays make me nostalgic""
Happy Thanksgiving BJ. There seems to be a lack of interest at yahoo finance mb's. Looks like consolidation on the 5 min. I think 1815 is possible Friday but on the daily the spx is near the top of a rising wedge Bullish sentiment and vix are at extremes as Aapl has pointed out.
Did you read John Hussman's newsletter? He compares the spx to a " "log periodic" pattern where the general advance becomes increasingly steep, while corrections become both increasingly frequent and gradually shallower."
The "finite time singularity pulls a bit closer – to December 2013 rather than January 2014"
How closely the spx is following this mathematical trajectory is eerie.
delta why do you come here to embarrass yourself year after year? To gain some knowledge become a better trader like Nyner? His AMZN is near all time highs while you have missed a bull market. I am just pointing out the irony of Boehner signing up for Obama-care. If that bothers you great. You still have not answered the question why you didn't have one post during the government shutdown?
From Boehner's bolg 11-21-13
"Earlier this afternoon, I sat down to try and enroll in the DC exchange under the president’s health care law: -
Despite multiple attempts, I was unable to get past that point and sign up for a health plan. We’ve got a call into the help desk. Guess I’ll just have to keep trying…at it, and called the DC Health Link help line. They called back a few hours later, and after re-starting the process on the website two more times,
I just heard from DC Health Link that I have been successfully enrolled." John Boehner Speaker of the House
64 yo heavy smoker GOP Speaker of the House was able to access an insurance marketplace, over the internet, selecting from a range of policies and got a great deal.
Guts, my post was not my opinion but a quote of Boehner's tweet that he has signed up for Obama-care !
"Boehner on #Obamacare: I just heard from DC Health Link that I have been successfully enrolled."
Uh-oh Obamacare turns out to be great deal personally for Boehner
The red state of GOP senators McConnell and Paul is a state where the roll out has gone smoothly. 56,422 have signed up for new health-care coverage.
"One reason is that the state set up its own health-insurance exchange, sidestepping the troubled federal one. Also, Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is the only Southern governor to sign on to expanded eligibility parameters for Medicaid, the federal health-insurance program for the poor." WaPo
"Hudson, a skinny 35-year-old who worked as an assistant director at the senior center and had just been released from the hospital after a blood-sugar spike.He’d never had insurance before and said his hospital bills were up to $23,000 at this point. “You’re going to qualify for a medical card,” she told Hudson.“Well, thank God,” Hudson said, laughing. “I believe I’m going to be a Democrat.” WaPo
"" A bullish trend in the stock market often begins before the general economy shows clear signs of recovery.""
I can't believe someone would get their investment information from wikipedia. Did you read their definition ? "The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends, respectively" you undoubtedly missed it and the current bull market. By the time you see it the big money has already been made. There are always reasons why the market shouldn't go up, just read the last 4 years of ZH.