Going into the presentation, he was already 95 per cent confident, but couldn’t quite pin down where all the unwanted nutritional shakes were going, as there didn’t appear to be warehouses full of them on eBay.
Coming out of the presentation, he was up to 98 per cent, after Ackman described how people aspiring to run Herbalife’s “nutrition clubs” were buying – and cajoling friends and family into buying – vast quantities of product as part of their training programmes.
If anything, the problem with the presentation is that he’s uncovered so many bad things Herbalife is doing that it led him to try to present too much. That doesn’t work so well in today’s investment clima.te, dominated by investors making snap decisions based on a few headlines or bullet points.
But keep in mind that the key audience for his presentation (and all of the work he and his team have done) is not investors – the stock price is irrelevant – but rather the half dozen or so regulators scrutinizing the company. Ackman has handed them, in my opinion, an exceptionally detailed roadmap of all sorts of illegal and nefarious things Herbalife is doing, and it’s inconceivable to me that they won’t take significant steps to rein in the company.
If anyone at Herbalife thought for even a second Ackman was going to put them out of their misery, they thought wrong. If Pershing is ever out, Bill is still all in. He’ll work on this with the weekend and after-hours ferocity that others reserve only for the fantasy football leagues.
if HLF was a legit company you could watch non gapp but since it is pyramid scam gapp is more reliable to watch
this time it may be negative
and it will be back in the low 50's or less.
real net earnings have fallen over a cliff the past three quarters because it is getting very expensive to prop the old pyramid up, I bet they fall again
Herbalife has some bunk science.
Vox took a look at Herbalife's science website and found that the evidence that Herbalife helps people lose weight boils down to a few uncontrolled short-term weird studies. This should not be a huge surprise; obviously there's not a magic powder that makes you skinny, come on. The bull argument for Herbalife -- made by John Hempton especially -- is that it works anyway: The social aspect of Herbalife's nutrition club, what Hempton calls the "cult of weight loss," is what provides the discipline for customers to lose weight, by eating less and drinking shakes and teas instead. Obviously though one could object to the business model of using a cult to sell a placebo.
Second, the study wasn't actually designed to look at how Herbalife diet products compare to other weight-loss aids or even other types of diets. It only compares Herbalife products to each other. It would have been more scientific to test whether Herbalife meal replacements fare better than, say, a regular low calorie diet, or whether their shakes help people lose more weight than other meal replacement brands.
2) The second clinical study cited was never even published. Again, if Herbalife is going to claim scientific rigor, it should at least bother to publish all the studies it uses as evidence of "research and development" to see if they pass peer scrutiny.
If Herbalife wants to make claims to science, it should fund long-term trials comparing its products against other brands instead of short-term studies that mostly compare its own products to one another.
Dr. Freedhoff summed up the problems with the research quite nicely: "It's a shame we see products being sold on the back of studies that last for less time than many items in my refrigerator."
A look at Herbalife's clinical trials
On a dedicated science website, Herbalife cites four clinical trials to prove the safety and effectiveness of its products:
1) The first clinical study compares weight and fat loss in two groups of obese men and women: the first went on a diet involving protein enriched Herbalife meal-replacement shakes; the second dieted with a standard Herbalife shake. While the study shows that both groups lost a few kilograms during the trial, and the protein group didn't fare any better than the other, there are several problems with the research.
First, the Herbalife website states that the study lasted for "over a one-year period;" a closer look at the actual paper reveals that the trial only ran for 12 weeks.
"Any diet study that runs for less than a year or two is worthless," said Dr. Yoni Freedhoff, an obesity specialist and author of The Diet Fix: Why Diets Fail and How to Make Yours Work. Unless people plan to drink two shakes a day for the rest of their lives, he added, this kind of plan is just not going to work in the long term. "I can put someone on a short-term marshmallow diet and they'll lose weight if they consume fewer calories."
a lot more money to lose than the CFO in lawsuits for making misleading statements.
and ignore HLF's falling real net earnings look like fools now for pumping HLF in the 60's not long ago