@dsseven: That's pretty much how I read it, too. But I don't think that's the reason the stock is down. I read the announcement as good news. The price dip is just part of a larger market sell off in my opinion. I track a lot of mining stocks (and own a few) and they're all in the red today. When the machines (algorithms) say sell, the market goes down.
@pip: Interesting take. I learned from it. Thanks. I am watching the Berkshire annual meeting wrap up now on Yahoo via live stream. Earlier, viewers were invited to email questions by one of the journalists on the Q&A panel. I emailed a question about Buffet's current take on the newspaper biz and whether he's interested in expanding his newspaper portfolio. Alas, my question didn't get asked.
At 11:45 a.m. Central time on 28 April we've traded exactly 25 shares. Market has been open 3.25 hours and we've traded exactly 25 shares. Not a loved ticker or one attracting any attention at all. ROIAK, on the other hand, has been on a pretty robust uptrend the last month. Two radio stocks, two very different stories. I wonder why.
@uptab: Never wrong to cash out with a profit. I haven't cashed out any shares and have sweated over it, especially after reading that you had done so. I am still not out of the woods though I agree, if the deal happens $4 looks like a lock. If it happens, that is. Will be interesting to see if the news on net cash sends this thing above the post merger announcement high, which I think was $3.79.
I believe the earnings release language sticks to the second quarter, which is already a month old. So stuck's answer would be my answer -- 60 days or less. Of course, you could say the language about consummating the deal in the second quarter is management's way of addressing the regulatory issue with a stiff upper lip. "Nothing to worry about here, folks," it suggests. They have nothing to lose from such a statement because they do not know the outcome any more than we do, hence no need to change the story. If regulators scupper the deal, well, they simply were telling the story as they believed it to be at the time.
Two takeaways from earnings: 1. The quarter sucked but it does not matter because the merger terms lock down the share price anyway and 2. Net cash ticks slightly higher to $51.3 million, which is good news.
@fred: Zolly is one of the many people I've reported and put on ignore. Unfortunately, I don't think the Yahoo employees who presumably react to this stuff give a rip. If they did, the Google Alerts and Penny Stock Weekly spammers that litter these boards would be long gone just based on the several hundred reports I've made. Oh well. I will keep doing it. It makes me feel good.
Surprised at the lack of comment here on the proposed buyout by GCI. What do TPUB folks think? TPUB is up a bunch at the moment, not surprisingly, but GCI is also up, which is unusual since the stock of the acquirer in takeovers tends usually to take a hit. Disclosure: I am long GCI but have no position in TPUB.
And a LEE buyout will happen. Big consolidation in the newspaper business is inevitable. But I always thought GCI would be the buyer of LEE. Now that GCI owns the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and other former Scripps newspapers, I suspect ownership of TPUB (if it actually happens) would create regulatory issues for GCI if they wanted to buy LEE. Too much concentrated ownership in places like Wisconsin, for example. New Media (NEWM) is now a more likely buyer of LEE. Though regulatory issues could maybe be overcome in a breakup of LEE that splits the various LEE properties up to various owners. I haven't looked at the numbers lately but I believe LEE has less debt than TPUB.
I do not have the skill to compute or estimate the value but can rely on published information from people who presumably do have the skill to get an estimate. Tegna (the broadcast and digital spin-off of Gannett) and Tribune each own 42.5 percent of CareerBuilder. MNI owns the remaining 15 percent. According to a Bloomberg article dated March 8 of this year about Tribune, an analyst at Jefferies valued Tribune's stake in CareeBuilder at $300 million. So under that thinking, the combined 85 percent of CareerBuilder owned by Tegna and Tribune is worth $600 million. Do the arithmetic on that and you get a value of $105.9 million for the 15 percent stake owned by MNI. Whatever. I believe that, eventually, Tegna will own 100 percent of CareerBuilder. I have no position in MNI.
@LT: I follow you on SA and thus got an alert about the RFP article. I read it. I made a few bucks on RFP a few years ago on your rec back then but have been out of it for a long time. I think some of the comments left for your SA article on RFP were interesting. Last I looked, you hadn't addressed any of them. Some good criticism there, I think, especially the reliance on newsprint.
@fred: I think what the proponents of this stock over the past five years (and that includes me) did not perceive was the extent to which mobile devices would supplant PCs. This had the effect of speeding the commodification of the PC business, which was already well underway. So what you have with HTCH is a parts supplier for a commodity component (disk drives) in a commodity business (computers). It created a pricing race to the bottom that resulted in ever cheaper computers for consumers but a tough environment for manufacturers. To HTCH management's credit, they recognized it and tried to address it with new product lines. But they didn't pull it off and the most promising of the developments, OIS, came too late in the game, apparently. The only news that matters now, as far as I can see, is that the TDK deal has passed regulator scrutiny and shareholders are going to get the $4 payout.
Tough to avoid questions about the TDK deal in a conference call, questions he maybe can't address (for legal reasons) and has no real interest in addressing anyhow. At this point, the die is cast. The deal is binary. It either happens or it does not and anything he says has the potential for trouble with no potential upside. Or so it seems to me.
Yahoo truncated my original post for some reason. Here is what I intended to write. Sorry for deleting your reply, Uptab.
Exactly 6 years ago, in April 2010, Emmis CEO, then and now, Jeff Smulyan tried to take EMMS private for $2.40 a share. Now, all these years later, here we are with a share price under 60 cents. How come Mr. Smulyan isn't champing at the bit to do another deal? A quick glance at insider transactions indicates that Smulyan hasn't bought any open-market shares in years. And if he's no longer hot-to-trot to own the company at at share price under 60 cents why should I be? Would love to hear comments from the bulls here.
Exactly 6 years ago, in April 2010, Emmis CEO, then and now, Jeff Smulyan tried to take EMMS private for $2.40 a share. Now, all these years later, here we are with a share price under 60 cents. How come Mr. Smulyan isn't champing at the bit to do another deal? A quick glance at insider transactions indicates that Smulyan hasn't bought any open-market shares in years. And if he's no longer hot-to-trot to own the company under 60 cents why should I be? Would love to hear comments from the bulls here.
Yeah. I saw it before the market opened. Now, two hours from market close, CLGRF is up 3 percent and SSRI is up 2.2 percent. Yawn. Got it? The SSRI price is driving the bus from now on. This is a fact, whether you like the merger or not.
I generally refrain from discussing politics and religion in these precincts because, well, I was raised to believe you shouldn't discuss those topics in most social settings. Of course, this is the Internet, the modern equivalent of the Wild West. But still...
I just returned from the poll in my small southern Wisconsin city and will spare the reader the details of my vote but offer this as a sort of "food for thought" rejoinder to uptab's first sentence above. In 2012, a very successful lawyer I know, a multi-millionaire with a trophy home on a lake, told me the day before Obama whupped Romney that the polls were wrong and his guy, Romney, would win. I allowed as how I thought that outcome unlikely. The day after the election, he took a line out of uptab's playbook and gave me this revealing quote: "I can't understand how Romney lost. Everybody I know voted for him." Yeah. Think about it.
Sure wish I'd cashed out of HTCH in the mid $4s back in 2014.
@fink: I share that general thought but what has kept me in the game here is that the volume on the "volatile spikes" you reference has not been large. This implies to me just twitchiness of the type that has caused you to sell rather than an information leak about serious problems with the deal. But who knows? Not me.