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Radio One Inc. Message Board

tgagrippa 71 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 12:04 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2008
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  • Reply to

    October 7, 2014 Tender Deadline is too soon

    by aanalyst50 Sep 16, 2014 5:13 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 17, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Exactly, back to $3.50. That's the fear. And don't you think that Monomoy is counting on that fear? Anyone involved in stock investing for a length of time knows that it often comes down to a simple question: Do you want a quick nickel or a slow dime? In this case, we have the added element of fear caused by the knowledge that the quick nickel might go away. And, if history is any guide, the dime coming from COBR may be very slow indeed. I can't help but feel shareholders are being bullied here. It doesn't surprise me that Monomoy would do that, but I expect better out of COBR management.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    WWAV shares at $50?

    by tgagrippa Sep 10, 2014 12:28 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 10, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    First, define "long term" and then I will give you an answer. In investing, as in much of the rest of life, time and money have an inverse relationship.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa by tgagrippa Sep 10, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    So I see that CNBC screamer Jim Cramer said on his show last night that the metrics in the General Mills buyout of BNNY, if applied to WWAV, would yield a buyout price of $50 per share. Judging from some previous posts, I infer some WWAV longs here would argue that's too little given the company's long-term prospects. But I think it would be difficult for the Board of Directors to turn down such an offer. I'd sell my 600 shares at $50, for whatever that's worth.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 9, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    @aanalyst: So what comes next here? I mean, we can't reasonably expect Monomoy to up its own offer absent a competing bid, right? That would be financially stupid, and also an admission by management that they gave Monomoy too sweet a deal in the first place. It seems to me that Monomoy and COBR management are locked in an embrace here that neither can afford to let go of. To do so might not only scupper the deal but also call attention to the fact that management may have failed in its fiduciary duty. What am I missing? Something, I'm sure.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    20 different press releases about litigation

    by smaycs4 Sep 4, 2014 9:34 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 5, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    According to Yahoo there are 6.6 million shares outstanding, so $3 million divided by 6.6 million equals 45 cents per share.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pretty Slim Premium

    by aanalyst50 Sep 2, 2014 7:38 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 3, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Yeah. And I see that as of noon Wednesday we have another law firm jumping into the fray. What does that make, like six of them now? I guess they smell blood in the water. Either that or there's no downside to trying.

    That said, I don't expect anything to come of it unless another bidder steps up with a better offer. You can't blame Monomoy for wanting to buy low. After all, that's exactly what buyers like me thought they were doing when they bought shares of the common. You can't hate them for wanting a sweet deal. The stock has languished below book for a long time and anybody with sufficiently deep pockets was free to swoop in and scoop them up. Nobody did (you could argue) and so management is doing nothing wrong by making nice with Monomoy.

    What we don't know, I guess, is whether management tried all that hard to get a competing offer. I don't know the ins-and-outs of corporate governance as some of the smart posters here do, but I would think the fiduciary duty would have included the duty to test the waters and see if anybody wanted to top Monomoy's offer.

    I wish Longtime would chime in here. LT, you out there?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Arbitrage in COBR

    by tgagrippa Sep 2, 2014 3:46 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 3, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Good comments. I suspect if we're going to see a better offer it will be soon, else it's not happening.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • If we needed any more proof that WWAV products are now mainstream, there's this new headline from Business Week:

    Dunkin' Adds Almond Milk for the Health-Conscious Donut Customer

    WWAV is going to $40 by year end, either by itself or with the help of an acquirer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa by tgagrippa Sep 2, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    At this moment, COBR is trading at $4.30 -- the buyout price. So why buy at $4.30 if that's all the buyout is going to net you? I conclude that some money (smart money?) abitrageur(s) has (have) determined that the price is going higher and it's worth the trade. Just a thought. I could be wrong but continue to sit on my small holding because I feel like the downside risk of doing so is nil.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    appraisal rights ?

    by smaycs4 Sep 1, 2014 7:50 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Sep 2, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    I infer that "Tim" means Longtimefollower? I, too, would really like to know what Longtime thinks of this deal.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    These same lawyers jump in

    by pa1702 Aug 28, 2014 2:38 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 29, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Maybe they figured it would fly because COBR is a sleepy microcap trading below the radar of big money. If so, I guess they were wrong. Just as interesting is the price run-up this stock has enjoyed in recent weeks. I guess we should attribute that to the recent upbeat conference call because, you know, trading on insider information is, you know, illegal. Yeah.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I hate ambulence chaser spammers like Tripp Levy

    by smaycs4 Aug 29, 2014 1:19 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 29, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    I agree. But I'm sitting on my shares because I also agree with your second sentence. What's to lose? I already know what my upside cap is. I can't get any less than $4.30 unless the deal falls through. If it does, c'est la vie. I'm OK with that risk.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 27, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    As always value is tough to know. The value is what the market says, I guess. I know I bought in at slightly higher than the current price earlier this year on the basis of their expansion plans. The untapped markets here should allow big store growth. The headwind they face, though, is the healthy eating trend, which I believe is not a fad at all, but a real bankable trend. In the same week I bought DNKN I also bought WWAV, the maker of plant-based "Silk" soy milk and almond milk. I'm up spectacularly on the WWAV purchase and down slightly on the DNKN purchase. That said, donuts (carbohydrates) and coffee aren't going away anytime soon. And while Starbucks has their chunk of the carbs and coffee biz, the fact is that there are plenty of people who prefer another option, just as there are people who shop at either Target (a white-collar image) or Wal-Mart (a blue-collar image) but not both. (DNKN equals blue collar in that analogy.) I also believe you will see all the "bad" fast-food outlets (McDs, BK etc.) retooling their menus in the next five years to try to tap the healthy eating trend, though that's maybe a tougher row to hoe for DNKN. Sorry to be all over the map. Simply put, I believe the expansion potential here is really enormous, but success is no slam-dunk.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 26, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    A couple thoughts. I suspect a stronger presence in the morning menu, where I think BK is not strong and TH is strong, was one of the reasons for the purchase. Also, I read an article not long ago about how TH has had trouble getting traction in the U.S. market. So BK may believe it can have a better international presence by owning TH, and at the same time may also believe that their U.S. experience may give them some insight into how to make TH more attractive to U.S. customers. Not sure how any of this translates with regard to DNKN. I suspect that each buyout has its own particular characteristics that make it work for the acquirer. Because TH has a relatively small presence in the U.S., BK may have felt that the purchase would not cannibalize business from their own BK stores. Lots of ways to look at it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    White Wave building a plant near us

    by barndog05 Aug 26, 2014 9:09 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 26, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    I believe you. I bought WWAV early in 2014 after I watched Cramer pound the table on it. But that alone isn't why I bought. I don't have the money to be able to afford to buy all of Cramer#$%$. I bought when, in addition to Cramer's rec, I discovered that my local grocery store was out of WWAV almond milk about half the time I visited the store. The store is in a small town in Wisconsin not noted for being a "progressive" place filled with vegans and organic foodie types. That was a powerful confirmation for me. The healthy eating trend is no fad. It's for real and will only grow over time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH ready to break 4.75$ any day....

    by mikengyeah Aug 22, 2014 11:31 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 22, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Maybe. But the $5 price limit observed by some institutional buyers may come into play here. That is to say, if HTCH can close above $5 for a time it may attract deep pockets in the form of institutional buyers who won't hook up with companies selling under $5. If that happens, you could see this thing blow through $6 or even $7 in a hurry. I am not predicting that, mind you, simply pointing out that it is possible. Of course, even at $5 HTCH would still be a very small cap stock, and I think some institutional buyers have rules about that, too. The company remains in "show me" mode but, clearly, the recent price action shows the Street is starting to think differently about the company. A doubling in the price doesn't on massive volume doesn't happen without some conviction buying.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Another day when we drop small on relatively light (more or less average) volume. But when we go up it's on big volume. I'm no technician but I like the HTCH price action. It's that way stocks act when they're headed higher.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 19, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    I think your analysis of the recent price action RE pros coming in is dead on. I expected a stronger selling headwind as people who got in over the past few years in the high $3s and $4s took the opportunity to finally get out even or at a profit. But I suspect that demand is so strong that the price is blowing past the headwind. Who knows? We are pattern-seeking beings who need explanations, so we make them up sometimes. But the glorious price spike in the last 10 days -- that's no fiction. I am holding.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 19, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    How much effect do you think the recent (and current) #$%$ market for small caps may be having on depressing the price? I suspect it's some.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH:Rise on HIgh Volume means HTCH is on the MOVE

    by mikengyeah Aug 18, 2014 11:34 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 18, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    Yeah. We have already doubled the three-month average volume not even half-way through the trading day. A two million share day looks likely. If you think about it, this stock represents a combination of two of the Street's favorite things. 1. Improving fundamentals in the core business that almost guarantees profitability going forward and 2. A new product that could supercharge revenues. Lots to like here.

    Sentiment: Hold

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