Good info. I suspect that as smartphone technology ages you are going to see the business commodified in much the same way PCs have become commodities. The only computer brand that really commands a premium is Apple, but that's always been true. When it comes to the others, no one cares much anymore whether it's a Dell, a Lenovo, an HP or a Toshiba. Apple reported staggeringly good iPhone sales this week but that's not going to #$%$ forever and I suspect Samsung's market share will erode over time, too. The costs of these things will grind lower as the market fragments and I think you are correct, that does bode well for HTCH.
Cramer has a net worth of over $100 million and it's based in trading stocks. What's your net worth?
Yeah, but WWAV is a story stock. The story here is healthy eating, a secular trend not a fad. Story stocks don't always follow the value playbook. Plus there's a premium because WWAV is takeover bait. Throw in the growth from China and this thing could explode over $40 in a day on cheerful earnings news. Not predicting that but believe the upside potential here tops the downside risk barring unusual and unforeseen bad news, which is a risk in any stock. That said, taking profits is almost never a bad idea. You don't have them until you claim them.
But the revenue decline continues, as it has for other newspaper companies who reported recently. Until the declines stabilize, the street is gonna continue to penalize the equity prices. The declines create an unsustainable situation, clearly.
Prediction: After Gannett completes its split this year you will see some major consolidation in the newspaper biz, and it will be GCI that does the acquiring, not MNI or LEE. This may actually be a reason to own some MNI, though I do not.
If something looks like it can't go on forever (i.e. revenue declines) it won't. And what must happen (i.e. consolidation in legacy industries) will happen. Lay your bets accordingly.
@newsad: I wouldn't be so certain, though I think a deal between GCI and MNI or LEE might take a form other than a 100 percent outright buyout. Here's some relevant comment from an article after the GCI conference call last August in which GCI announced the split of the company:
One aim of the split, Martore said, is to make it easier for both the publishing and broadcasting companies to make acquisitions, without being hampered by the F.C.C. regulations that prohibit the same company from owning television stations and newspapers in certain markets.
"It has been difficult for us to, in some cases, be able to look at certain acquisition opportunities that we thought were very attractive because of the cross-ownership rules and other issues," Martore said during the call.
In particular, the publishing company will look to acquisitions as a growth strategy.
In recent years, Martore suggested, Gannett has been unable to pursue newspaper acquisitions because it could not justify such transactions to investors, who preferred the company to acquire higher-margin assets. The spun-off publishing company, though, will be able to pursue these acquisitions, which make economic sense within the context of a dedicated newspaper company.
"It was much more difficult for us to do, from an investor perspective, newspaper publishing acquisitions within the context of the company that we are currently structured in," Martore said.
The newspaper company, she added, will be in a strong position to make acquisitions since it will have no debt and impressive cash flow for a newspaper company.
Translation: GCI will be buying in late 2015 or in 2016. Where? I dunno. But look at the map for where the market synergies are and you will find them. In particular you will find them between current GCI and LEE locations in Wisconsin, for example.
I think you are correct RE the digital properties making MNI attractive and remember that Gannet (along with Tribune) shares ownership of Careerbuilder with MNI. I could see a deal for MNI that splits the publishing and digital properties so that the new (post spin-off) GCI owns it all but under two separate company umbrellas. But remember that Carl Icahn will have something to say about it all since he has taken an activist stake in GCI. Who knows where it's all going. But I fell certain you will see much consolidation in the newspaper biz over the next two years. For the record, I traded MNI and LEE for small profits a few years ago but am long and holding GCI.
I think @keyes and @capt have captured the real truth here. HTCH is in "show me" mode. But I think @uptab is fundamentally correct, too, which is why I really think this stock could explode up some day, and in the fullness of time probably will. I'm not good enough to time it, so I just stay long and fight the temptation to add more. You know, for diversity purposes. We've seen gains in the NASDAQ lately and I'd have expected HTCH to be higher that it is now on that fact alone. But you can over think this stuff, for sure.
I have no idea whether WWAV will be bought or, if it happens, what number the buyer will end up paying. But I disagree with the statement that no company would pay the current valuation. In fact, I believe a buyer might pay even more than the current valuation. General Mills recently agreed to pay more than 27 times EBITDA for Annie's. Apply that multiple to WWAV and you get (in round numbers) a price of $10.5 billion, or 50 percent more than the current market cap of $7 billion. That implies a share price of ~$55 to $60.
The unneeded zeros after the decimal point make the overall number seem larger. Nice touch.
Looks like the $30s are in the rear view mirror, though I wouldn't rule out a dip to $38.XX in coming weeks. But sub-$35 prices are, I suspect, a thing of the past. IMO, $45 now more likely than $35.
Yep, and you nailed it with the General Mills reference. So let's make an example out of them. Visit the GIS home page as I did moments ago and you'll see five stories being highlighted. Here are headlines for three of them:
+ "Less sugar, more protein for Yoplait"
+ "How gluten-free Cheerios came to be"
+ "Cheerios + ancient grains"
See a trend there? They aren't touting Hamburger Helper. And a fourth story links to a piece by CEO Ken Powell discussing growth strategies that includes this line:
"Around the world, a growing number of consumers are focused on wellness and have new interests in natural and organic foods, products make with simple ingredients, food free from gluten, foods that deliver more fiber, more protein and more whole grain, and foods free from artificial ingredients. "
Translation: There is no future in Hamburger Helper etc..The future is all about healthy eating. WWAV will either grow to be the next General Mills or General Mills or (insert old-line food company name here) will buy WWAV. Either way, holders of WWAV win. The stock will hit $55 or higher in the next two years either on its own or in a buyout.
Yep. And that 27x PE is less than half the 66 percent YOY quarterly growth rate. Cheap. It's called GARP -- growth at a reasonable price.
I was using the Yahoo number from the company statistics page. But differences of opinion are what makes markets, and you're entitled to yours. Hype? No, I don't think so. Now, Tesla? Yeah. That's what hype looks like.
Not exactly sure where you're coming from, but if you're referring to WWAV as a Cramer "flavor of the day" you're wrong. Cramer has been plugging WWAV for years, basically since the split-off from Dean Foods at prices below $20.
Good news. And I, too, am constantly baffled by the seemingly strange and arbitrary censorship. You know it's got to be automated bot software that trolls for keywords. Yet, this same method is seeming helpless to remove the spam that pollutes these boards. If the powers that be wanted to clean it up I believe they could do it in a day.
I think a play will be made for WWAV. Buyout depends upon Board of Directors approval. Candidates include Danone, PepsiCo, General Mills, Nestle and Coca-Cola.
I thumbs-upped ya because you do a good job of summarizing the up side here (in this as well as other posts) and I am a long, too, but continue to be baffled by the lack of enthusiasm the market shows for this stock. "What am I missing that the market sees?" I keep asking myself. I keep falling back on my belief that the market has simply lost faith here because of the long duration of the turnaround. If that's true, then the upside move could, indeed, be massive here. But it's gonna take more than me saying so to make it happen. Stocks gap higher when expectations are backed by results. We've got plenty of the first, the jury is still out on the second. Fighting the temptation to add on today's dip.