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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

tgagrippa 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 3:49 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 27, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    As always value is tough to know. The value is what the market says, I guess. I know I bought in at slightly higher than the current price earlier this year on the basis of their expansion plans. The untapped markets here should allow big store growth. The headwind they face, though, is the healthy eating trend, which I believe is not a fad at all, but a real bankable trend. In the same week I bought DNKN I also bought WWAV, the maker of plant-based "Silk" soy milk and almond milk. I'm up spectacularly on the WWAV purchase and down slightly on the DNKN purchase. That said, donuts (carbohydrates) and coffee aren't going away anytime soon. And while Starbucks has their chunk of the carbs and coffee biz, the fact is that there are plenty of people who prefer another option, just as there are people who shop at either Target (a white-collar image) or Wal-Mart (a blue-collar image) but not both. (DNKN equals blue collar in that analogy.) I also believe you will see all the "bad" fast-food outlets (McDs, BK etc.) retooling their menus in the next five years to try to tap the healthy eating trend, though that's maybe a tougher row to hoe for DNKN. Sorry to be all over the map. Simply put, I believe the expansion potential here is really enormous, but success is no slam-dunk.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Is DNKNs Now a Takeover Target?

    by chuckpalot Aug 25, 2014 4:01 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 26, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    A couple thoughts. I suspect a stronger presence in the morning menu, where I think BK is not strong and TH is strong, was one of the reasons for the purchase. Also, I read an article not long ago about how TH has had trouble getting traction in the U.S. market. So BK may believe it can have a better international presence by owning TH, and at the same time may also believe that their U.S. experience may give them some insight into how to make TH more attractive to U.S. customers. Not sure how any of this translates with regard to DNKN. I suspect that each buyout has its own particular characteristics that make it work for the acquirer. Because TH has a relatively small presence in the U.S., BK may have felt that the purchase would not cannibalize business from their own BK stores. Lots of ways to look at it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    White Wave building a plant near us

    by barndog05 Aug 26, 2014 9:09 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 26, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    I believe you. I bought WWAV early in 2014 after I watched Cramer pound the table on it. But that alone isn't why I bought. I don't have the money to be able to afford to buy all of Cramer#$%$. I bought when, in addition to Cramer's rec, I discovered that my local grocery store was out of WWAV almond milk about half the time I visited the store. The store is in a small town in Wisconsin not noted for being a "progressive" place filled with vegans and organic foodie types. That was a powerful confirmation for me. The healthy eating trend is no fad. It's for real and will only grow over time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH ready to break 4.75$ any day....

    by mikengyeah Aug 22, 2014 11:31 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 22, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    Maybe. But the $5 price limit observed by some institutional buyers may come into play here. That is to say, if HTCH can close above $5 for a time it may attract deep pockets in the form of institutional buyers who won't hook up with companies selling under $5. If that happens, you could see this thing blow through $6 or even $7 in a hurry. I am not predicting that, mind you, simply pointing out that it is possible. Of course, even at $5 HTCH would still be a very small cap stock, and I think some institutional buyers have rules about that, too. The company remains in "show me" mode but, clearly, the recent price action shows the Street is starting to think differently about the company. A doubling in the price doesn't on massive volume doesn't happen without some conviction buying.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Another day when we drop small on relatively light (more or less average) volume. But when we go up it's on big volume. I'm no technician but I like the HTCH price action. It's that way stocks act when they're headed higher.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 19, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    I think your analysis of the recent price action RE pros coming in is dead on. I expected a stronger selling headwind as people who got in over the past few years in the high $3s and $4s took the opportunity to finally get out even or at a profit. But I suspect that demand is so strong that the price is blowing past the headwind. Who knows? We are pattern-seeking beings who need explanations, so we make them up sometimes. But the glorious price spike in the last 10 days -- that's no fiction. I am holding.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 19, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    How much effect do you think the recent (and current) #$%$ market for small caps may be having on depressing the price? I suspect it's some.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH:Rise on HIgh Volume means HTCH is on the MOVE

    by mikengyeah Aug 18, 2014 11:34 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 18, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    Yeah. We have already doubled the three-month average volume not even half-way through the trading day. A two million share day looks likely. If you think about it, this stock represents a combination of two of the Street's favorite things. 1. Improving fundamentals in the core business that almost guarantees profitability going forward and 2. A new product that could supercharge revenues. Lots to like here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Interesting?

    by carpinus1 Aug 14, 2014 12:46 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 14, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    I love the smell of burning short-sellers in the morning.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    La tee da

    by theotherathlete Aug 13, 2014 3:12 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 13, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    I believe it's "la dee da."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH: might hit 4.40$ today or tomorrow

    by mikengyeah Aug 11, 2014 12:52 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 13, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    I like your thinking.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH: might hit 4.40$ today or tomorrow

    by mikengyeah Aug 11, 2014 12:52 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 11, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Volume today was about 80 percent greater than normal but only relatively modest 12 cent gain on a good day for the overall market. I suspect the trend will be up in coming days and weeks but I also suspect that buyers will find sellers as people who got into this thing in recent years below $5 finally take a chance to get out with a gain. Translation: expect headwinds. Of course, if a big buyer wanted in quickly we could hit $4.40 in a hurry -- or $5 for that matter.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 7, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    And what do you think a reasonable price would be for an acquirer to pay for this growth? I can't see it being all that much higher than the current price, which is approaching a 30 forward PE. But I'm long, so I'd like to think the BoD would want something like a 20 percent premium over current price, so something like $40 per share. But that's not an informed guess, just a statement of hope more than anything.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Obowel

    by underground871 Aug 6, 2014 1:11 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 6, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    As opposed to moderate Republicans, which of course are everywhere.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 4, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Bump. It deserves to be seen by a wider audience.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Same song and dance

    by jungianshadow Aug 1, 2014 12:04 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 1, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Somebody likes what they saw in today's CC. Up 21 percent at this moment on high volume.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CC thoughts....

    by uptabdowntab Aug 1, 2014 9:46 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Aug 1, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    All interesting points but, of all 8, I think #6 is the most interesting. And quite possibly true. The market is a funny thing.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Can someone explain this to me?

    by benny2run Jul 31, 2014 11:31 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jul 31, 2014 6:36 PM Flag

    Yes. Now, to be sure, today saw a terrible sell-off in the overall market, so BWEN faced a headwind (pun unintentional). Had today been a "normal" market day we probably would have been up a few percent. But fundamentally, yes, it's the tax credit issue. Those predicting $20 for this stock absent a favorable resolution of the PTC issue are kidding themselves. With a favorable resolution, then yeah. Maybe.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    WDC cc this afternoon confirmed

    by uptabdowntab Jul 30, 2014 7:51 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jul 31, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Actually, the average daily volume over the past three months is more like 229,000, according to Yahoo. But your point is still valid. At the moment, a few minutes before 1 p.m. Central, as we endure a terrible market sell-off, HTCH is the only green ticker symbol among the 20 or so holdings on my computer screen, though the volume appears nothing special.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Excellent 2nd Quarter Earnings

    by upthedivy Jul 22, 2014 5:17 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jul 25, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Agreed. There will likely be a payday for longs sometime in the next 12 to 18 months when the company announces (as I believe it will) a split of the print and broadcast businesses as News Corp. has done and as Tribune company is scheduled to do. Then again, the GCI CEO said this week, in answer to an analyst’s question, that some newspapers are for sale. In that case, longs will benefit from the cash infusion, though I believe the aforementioned split is the more likely outcome for most of the print properties. Then there are the digital properties, which include Careerbuilder. Plus the dividend, which pays us to wait. And I believe management is truly focused on shareholder value and not simply spouting platitudes. The GCI future looks brighter for longs than it has any time since the Great Recession. The value here as we sit today could very well be $45 to $50.

    Sentiment: Hold

HTCH
4.70+0.22(+4.91%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT

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