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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

tgagrippa 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Aug 1, 2008
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  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 17, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    There may be good reasons for criticizing HTCH management but calling it a "scam company" and a "charity" is simply venting, not intelligent comment. You may feel better. We, the "losers," are not enlightened.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Price Upgrade

    by melodius27 Feb 20, 2015 3:10 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 20, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Looks like the $30s are in the rear view mirror, though I wouldn't rule out a dip to $38.XX in coming weeks. But sub-$35 prices are, I suspect, a thing of the past. IMO, $45 now more likely than $35.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Media News

    by jxenge Feb 13, 2015 9:44 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 14, 2015 7:15 AM Flag

    I think @keyes and @capt have captured the real truth here. HTCH is in "show me" mode. But I think @uptab is fundamentally correct, too, which is why I really think this stock could explode up some day, and in the fullness of time probably will. I'm not good enough to time it, so I just stay long and fight the temptation to add more. You know, for diversity purposes. We've seen gains in the NASDAQ lately and I'd have expected HTCH to be higher that it is now on that fact alone. But you can over think this stuff, for sure.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Upward Direction

    by robert4444444 Feb 17, 2015 11:35 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 18, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    I have no idea whether WWAV will be bought or, if it happens, what number the buyer will end up paying. But I disagree with the statement that no company would pay the current valuation. In fact, I believe a buyer might pay even more than the current valuation. General Mills recently agreed to pay more than 27 times EBITDA for Annie's. Apply that multiple to WWAV and you get (in round numbers) a price of $10.5 billion, or 50 percent more than the current market cap of $7 billion. That implies a share price of ~$55 to $60.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    "Cramit Cramer"

    by wdh827 Feb 26, 2015 2:07 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 26, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Not exactly sure where you're coming from, but if you're referring to WWAV as a Cramer "flavor of the day" you're wrong. Cramer has been plugging WWAV for years, basically since the split-off from Dean Foods at prices below $20.

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 2, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    I think a play will be made for WWAV. Buyout depends upon Board of Directors approval. Candidates include Danone, PepsiCo, General Mills, Nestle and Coca-Cola.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Big run into earnings

    by dividendseeker Feb 10, 2015 1:42 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 10, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    Yeah, but WWAV is a story stock. The story here is healthy eating, a secular trend not a fad. Story stocks don't always follow the value playbook. Plus there's a premium because WWAV is takeover bait. Throw in the growth from China and this thing could explode over $40 in a day on cheerful earnings news. Not predicting that but believe the upside potential here tops the downside risk barring unusual and unforeseen bad news, which is a risk in any stock. That said, taking profits is almost never a bad idea. You don't have them until you claim them.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH Stock

    by george3martha Feb 17, 2015 12:00 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 17, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Agreed. The coiled spring analogy has become a cliche, but I believe that it applies to HTCH.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Carrageenan

    by whtthefk Feb 26, 2015 5:36 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 26, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Maybe you should just cover your short position.

  • Reply to

    Latest from Foodbabe

    by whtthefk Mar 17, 2015 6:50 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 17, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Uh-huh. Thank you for your service to humanity. I am sure there are a couple, maybe even three, people here who will believe you.

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 30, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

    @ned: You do know that WWAV has hit two, maybe three 52-week highs in the last week or 10 days, right? It wouldn't surprise me to see it dip a couple percent this week on profit taking. Real profits are a bird in the hand, a buyout is two birds in the bush. But I believe the buyout offer, if it comes (and I believe it will), will be $55+ and I will take a slow dime over a quick nickel on this ticker. And if there is no buyout, I'll let my chips ride on the basis of the excellent fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    .... 4 dots

    by raggwead Mar 30, 2015 4:39 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 30, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Excellent analysis, well reasoned and nicely said. We can't wait for your next utterance.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Prerelease

    by tgagrippa Apr 1, 2015 6:19 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Apr 1, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    I've always just thought that preannouncements are just done to soften the blow. Most corporate outfits run on the "no surprises" principle and this is just a way of trying to achieve that. If you wanted to be an optimist (never a good idea with this company) you might speculate that they're going to have some good news when earnings release comes (OIS successes maybe) and they wanted to get the bad news out now so it didn't "pollute" the good when the time comes. But that is all just baseless speculation and wishful thinking from a long.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa by tgagrippa Apr 1, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    Well, now we know why the HTCH price sagged in the past two weeks. Someone had "material nonpublic information," to use SEC language. I guess the legality surrounding the use of such information depends on who you are. But the fact that some have it and others don't is sickening -- not new, but sickening -- and just confirms all the worst suspicions that make so many believe the market is a rigged game.

    As for the news itself, I guess we can conclude that the PC business is, indeed, wretched. The problem is, the PC business is unlikely ever to be glorious again, given the device proliferation we've seen in the last five years -- devices that don't employ disk drives, I might add. It is so important for management to develop the OIS thing.

    Question of the moment: Will be see sub $2 prices Thursday? Anything is possible, and people who predict risk looking foolish, but I think not. We may well dip into the $2.20s though. This company just cannot get out of its own way.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looks like the very dumb money...

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 8, 2015 3:00 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Apr 8, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Yeah. You can't really call HTCH a cigar-butt stock, at least not as Warren Buffet used the term. And you can't really call it a value trap, either. It's more like that really smart, charismatic, good-looking guy or gal you went to high school or college with who never seems to "land." You check in every now and then -- at school reunions, or at the local tavern or wherever -- and he's always fixing to do great things. But it just never works out somehow. But there's always something in the offing that promises to pay off big -- a promotion that's weeks away, a job interview that went really well, a business idea that's bound to pay off big. For one reason or another, though, it never works out. Good thing is though he dropped from a wealthy womb, so he still lives nice -- like HTCH's management. He (and they) just needs to keep telling good stories and keeping the country club dues paid and everything is fine.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Adding the last couple days.

    by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2015 4:04 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 5, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    @LTF: Good to hear. Ten percent is kind of high for you for one ticker, isn't it? Congrats on CLGRF. I was on the fence at 18 cents. Oops. Though I suppose you'd tell me it's still cheap at 0.4X

    Sentiment: Hold

  • tgagrippa by tgagrippa Apr 10, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    And we have ourselves another 52-week high in WWAV today. This stock is amazing, no? Priced for perfection, you say? Maybe. But it will probably be bought out before the blistering growth rate peters out, which is what it will take for the bubble to pop. A bad earnings release might be devastating here but, like I said, I think a buyout comes before that happens. And if it doesn't, the long-term growth story here is secure, so no problem a sensible long can't sit out. What's not to like? Just my rant for the day. Do your own due diligence, as they say. Meantime, I gots to try me some of that cashew milk. Been using the almond stuff for my breakfast smoothies for years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cisco will counter this offer

    by pmkhoopster Apr 15, 2015 10:25 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Apr 15, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    I doubt it. CSCO is an American company, which changes the optics of the deal totally from the French point of view.

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Apr 21, 2015 9:09 PM Flag

    Check out the GCI earnings release today. Huge drop in print revenues. GCI has other ways to make money -- digital and broadcast. But GCI is the largest newspaper operator in the nation. What do you think this means for Lee and MNI? Do you really think they will post different revenue results in their markets than GCI did in theirs? This is what a secular (industry) decline looks like. It is over as an investable business. Watch for big industry consolidation in the next two years once GCI has split the company to separate the print from the digital/broadcast properties. They will be debt free and also free from government cross-ownership rules. The industry will consolidate to create "synergies," because that is what shrinking industries do. The newspapers will (for the most part) continue their slow decline into becoming glorified advertisers. Only industry ticker I'm willing to hold is GCI, and I do. If you can figure out who buys who you might make money on some others but I'm not that good.

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jan 26, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    Yeah. Nice. I always wonder why Chinese companies don't hire people who speak English as a first language to write their promotional materials and instruction manuals. This is not a dig at HTCH, which I remain long on. Just a general observation. Maybe there's come cultural opposition in China to doing the thing I suggest. But it sure would be a lot better for the image of Chinese products if they did it. I go now make dinner.

    Sentiment: Hold

HTCH
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