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Hutchinson Technology Inc. Message Board

tgagrippa 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2015 8:23 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2008
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  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 17, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    There may be good reasons for criticizing HTCH management but calling it a "scam company" and a "charity" is simply venting, not intelligent comment. You may feel better. We, the "losers," are not enlightened.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Price Upgrade

    by melodius27 Feb 20, 2015 3:10 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 20, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Looks like the $30s are in the rear view mirror, though I wouldn't rule out a dip to $38.XX in coming weeks. But sub-$35 prices are, I suspect, a thing of the past. IMO, $45 now more likely than $35.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Media News

    by jxenge Feb 13, 2015 9:44 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 14, 2015 7:15 AM Flag

    I think @keyes and @capt have captured the real truth here. HTCH is in "show me" mode. But I think @uptab is fundamentally correct, too, which is why I really think this stock could explode up some day, and in the fullness of time probably will. I'm not good enough to time it, so I just stay long and fight the temptation to add more. You know, for diversity purposes. We've seen gains in the NASDAQ lately and I'd have expected HTCH to be higher that it is now on that fact alone. But you can over think this stuff, for sure.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Upward Direction

    by robert4444444 Feb 17, 2015 11:35 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 18, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    I have no idea whether WWAV will be bought or, if it happens, what number the buyer will end up paying. But I disagree with the statement that no company would pay the current valuation. In fact, I believe a buyer might pay even more than the current valuation. General Mills recently agreed to pay more than 27 times EBITDA for Annie's. Apply that multiple to WWAV and you get (in round numbers) a price of $10.5 billion, or 50 percent more than the current market cap of $7 billion. That implies a share price of ~$55 to $60.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    "Cramit Cramer"

    by wdh827 Feb 26, 2015 2:07 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 26, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Not exactly sure where you're coming from, but if you're referring to WWAV as a Cramer "flavor of the day" you're wrong. Cramer has been plugging WWAV for years, basically since the split-off from Dean Foods at prices below $20.

  • tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 2, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    I think a play will be made for WWAV. Buyout depends upon Board of Directors approval. Candidates include Danone, PepsiCo, General Mills, Nestle and Coca-Cola.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Big run into earnings

    by dividendseeker Feb 10, 2015 1:42 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 10, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    Yeah, but WWAV is a story stock. The story here is healthy eating, a secular trend not a fad. Story stocks don't always follow the value playbook. Plus there's a premium because WWAV is takeover bait. Throw in the growth from China and this thing could explode over $40 in a day on cheerful earnings news. Not predicting that but believe the upside potential here tops the downside risk barring unusual and unforeseen bad news, which is a risk in any stock. That said, taking profits is almost never a bad idea. You don't have them until you claim them.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    HTCH Stock

    by george3martha Feb 17, 2015 12:00 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 17, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Agreed. The coiled spring analogy has become a cliche, but I believe that it applies to HTCH.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Carrageenan

    by whtthefk Feb 26, 2015 5:36 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 26, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Maybe you should just cover your short position.

  • Reply to

    Latest from Foodbabe

    by whtthefk Mar 17, 2015 6:50 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 17, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Uh-huh. Thank you for your service to humanity. I am sure there are a couple, maybe even three, people here who will believe you.

  • Reply to

    Adding the last couple days.

    by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2015 4:04 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 5, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    @LTF: Good to hear. Ten percent is kind of high for you for one ticker, isn't it? Congrats on CLGRF. I was on the fence at 18 cents. Oops. Though I suppose you'd tell me it's still cheap at 0.4X

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    longtimefollower on NPR (Planet Money)

    by keyes_fred Jan 1, 2015 2:05 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jan 2, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    Actually, I heard him last Saturday on NPR's "This American Life" on that topic. I imagine it's archived for anyone who'd like to hear it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Question for Longs

    by tgagrippa Dec 29, 2014 2:26 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jan 1, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    @stats: Thanks for the thoughtful reply. This stock is liked by longs whose opinions and analysis I have learned respect from other Yahoo stock boards, so I was hoping to elicit more thoughts. Maybe others will eventually chime in, too. Because, let's face it, the answer to the question of what happens to the company if gold tanks is something any intelligent and thoughtful long has to consider before buying in. Not to do so would be reckless. I, too, believe $600 gold is unlikely -- or $800 gold, for that matter. But I also would have scoffed at this time last year that oil would be ~$55 and quite possibly heading to $40. Thanks again for taking the time, and happy new year. And let's all be careful (prudent) out there.

  • Reply to

    Good thing that most of us here can

    by uptabdowntab Jan 9, 2015 2:55 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jan 9, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    Up smartly today on a down day for the overall S&P. Which happens sometimes to stocks. But the telling number was the volume. Today was 12.6 times the rolling three-month average, according to Yahoo. I can only suppose it's the OIS/phone news. Things could be getting interesting. It's been a long wait.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    longs

    by bargainhunter880 Jan 26, 2015 10:26 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Jan 26, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    Yeah. Nice. I always wonder why Chinese companies don't hire people who speak English as a first language to write their promotional materials and instruction manuals. This is not a dig at HTCH, which I remain long on. Just a general observation. Maybe there's come cultural opposition in China to doing the thing I suggest. But it sure would be a lot better for the image of Chinese products if they did it. I go now make dinner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NET LOSS of $147,000,000.00 or $0.47/share

    by marcopubio Feb 19, 2015 7:31 AM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 19, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    The unneeded zeros after the decimal point make the overall number seem larger. Nice touch.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buyout price getting more expensive by the day

    by callstothewall Feb 25, 2015 12:48 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Feb 25, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Yep, and you nailed it with the General Mills reference. So let's make an example out of them. Visit the GIS home page as I did moments ago and you'll see five stories being highlighted. Here are headlines for three of them:

    + "Less sugar, more protein for Yoplait"
    + "How gluten-free Cheerios came to be"
    + "Cheerios + ancient grains"

    See a trend there? They aren't touting Hamburger Helper. And a fourth story links to a piece by CEO Ken Powell discussing growth strategies that includes this line:

    "Around the world, a growing number of consumers are focused on wellness and have new interests in natural and organic foods, products make with simple ingredients, food free from gluten, foods that deliver more fiber, more protein and more whole grain, and foods free from artificial ingredients. "

    Translation: There is no future in Hamburger Helper etc..The future is all about healthy eating. WWAV will either grow to be the next General Mills or General Mills or (insert old-line food company name here) will buy WWAV. Either way, holders of WWAV win. The stock will hit $55 or higher in the next two years either on its own or in a buyout.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    We got MACD Divergence

    by railsnstocks Mar 24, 2015 5:01 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 24, 2015 5:35 PM Flag

    The ancient Greeks, on the other hand, would have killed a goat and examined the entrails for signs of the future, which provided no more enlightenment than your methods but had the great advantage of providing lunch.

  • Reply to

    Seems to be a lot going on as of recent

    by spirallocks Mar 24, 2015 1:10 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 24, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Congratulations for your successful ongoing effort to keep negative news at the top of the conversation. So, how many shares are you short?

  • Reply to

    Still a motivated seller among us, wonder who?

    by uptabdowntab Mar 24, 2015 4:25 PM
    tgagrippa tgagrippa Mar 25, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    @uptab: The worry, of course, is that a motivated seller may have information we don't.

    Sentiment: Hold

HTCH
2.73+0.18(+7.06%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT