Well, I think the thing you have to worry about with the stock down mid-day 8 percent on April 29 and earnings due to be reported April 30 (tomorrow) is that there's bad news that's leaked and some folks are acting on this material nonpublic information. Not that anyone ever violates SEC rules, of course. Then again, maybe it is just traders who won't hold any security going into earnings. I see the volume is a bit above normal but nothing big.
Yes sirree, a gen-you-ine buying opportunity. There are so very many buying opportunities for HTCH. Say, you ain't from around here, are you?
Check out the GCI earnings release today. Huge drop in print revenues. GCI has other ways to make money -- digital and broadcast. But GCI is the largest newspaper operator in the nation. What do you think this means for Lee and MNI? Do you really think they will post different revenue results in their markets than GCI did in theirs? This is what a secular (industry) decline looks like. It is over as an investable business. Watch for big industry consolidation in the next two years once GCI has split the company to separate the print from the digital/broadcast properties. They will be debt free and also free from government cross-ownership rules. The industry will consolidate to create "synergies," because that is what shrinking industries do. The newspapers will (for the most part) continue their slow decline into becoming glorified advertisers. Only industry ticker I'm willing to hold is GCI, and I do. If you can figure out who buys who you might make money on some others but I'm not that good.
Didja check out the GCI earnings release today? Huge drop in print revenues. GCI has other ways to make money -- digital and broadcast. What does Lee have? Oh yeah, only print. Don't get your hopes up. GCI is the largest newspaper operator in the nation. Do you really think Lee will post different results in their markets than GCI did in there's? This is what a secular (industry) decline looks like.
@uptab: another post that succinctly sums up the bull case for HTCH. You are good at it. I especially like this line:
**Retail investors have a huge advantage over the professional investors with regard to Hutch right now. All you have to do is believe what Hutch management tells you.**
Yes, well said. The street is in show-me mode when it comes to HTCH and we, the small-time retail investors, aren't enough to move the needle. I suspect even Longtime isn't big enough to move the needle given his need to diversify.
To repeat what we all know, the move up here could be swift and powerful. At $2.75-ish, the downside seems pretty nil to me. Sure, it could slide under $2 on bad news or a big market decline but given the worldwide need and importance of what they do in suspensions it seems unlikely the price would not eventually recover, either on its own or because somebody came in and bought them out.
But as another poster mentioned recently, this company does teach you to be patient. I'm closing in on a PhD in patience.
I doubt it. CSCO is an American company, which changes the optics of the deal totally from the French point of view.
And we have ourselves another 52-week high in WWAV today. This stock is amazing, no? Priced for perfection, you say? Maybe. But it will probably be bought out before the blistering growth rate peters out, which is what it will take for the bubble to pop. A bad earnings release might be devastating here but, like I said, I think a buyout comes before that happens. And if it doesn't, the long-term growth story here is secure, so no problem a sensible long can't sit out. What's not to like? Just my rant for the day. Do your own due diligence, as they say. Meantime, I gots to try me some of that cashew milk. Been using the almond stuff for my breakfast smoothies for years.
@uptab and @bargain: I gave you both a thumbs-up because HTCH has trained me so well over the last four years to handle cognitive dissonance. Future's so bright you're gonna need shades but right now you need an umbrella. We'll lick 'em next quarter, though.
Yeah. You can't really call HTCH a cigar-butt stock, at least not as Warren Buffet used the term. And you can't really call it a value trap, either. It's more like that really smart, charismatic, good-looking guy or gal you went to high school or college with who never seems to "land." You check in every now and then -- at school reunions, or at the local tavern or wherever -- and he's always fixing to do great things. But it just never works out somehow. But there's always something in the offing that promises to pay off big -- a promotion that's weeks away, a job interview that went really well, a business idea that's bound to pay off big. For one reason or another, though, it never works out. Good thing is though he dropped from a wealthy womb, so he still lives nice -- like HTCH's management. He (and they) just needs to keep telling good stories and keeping the country club dues paid and everything is fine.
I've always just thought that preannouncements are just done to soften the blow. Most corporate outfits run on the "no surprises" principle and this is just a way of trying to achieve that. If you wanted to be an optimist (never a good idea with this company) you might speculate that they're going to have some good news when earnings release comes (OIS successes maybe) and they wanted to get the bad news out now so it didn't "pollute" the good when the time comes. But that is all just baseless speculation and wishful thinking from a long.
Well, now we know why the HTCH price sagged in the past two weeks. Someone had "material nonpublic information," to use SEC language. I guess the legality surrounding the use of such information depends on who you are. But the fact that some have it and others don't is sickening -- not new, but sickening -- and just confirms all the worst suspicions that make so many believe the market is a rigged game.
As for the news itself, I guess we can conclude that the PC business is, indeed, wretched. The problem is, the PC business is unlikely ever to be glorious again, given the device proliferation we've seen in the last five years -- devices that don't employ disk drives, I might add. It is so important for management to develop the OIS thing.
Question of the moment: Will be see sub $2 prices Thursday? Anything is possible, and people who predict risk looking foolish, but I think not. We may well dip into the $2.20s though. This company just cannot get out of its own way.
@ned: You do know that WWAV has hit two, maybe three 52-week highs in the last week or 10 days, right? It wouldn't surprise me to see it dip a couple percent this week on profit taking. Real profits are a bird in the hand, a buyout is two birds in the bush. But I believe the buyout offer, if it comes (and I believe it will), will be $55+ and I will take a slow dime over a quick nickel on this ticker. And if there is no buyout, I'll let my chips ride on the basis of the excellent fundamentals.
@sirius: If you are considering a long position based upon a belief that WWAV is "a rice company" then you are badly misinformed. If you are short WWAV because you believe it is just "a rice company" then you are going to get what you deserve.
Yikes. What do you do when a fan (uptab) and a basher (bargain) both have intelligent and (in their own ways) correct stories for the same stock? Well, I guess if you can handle the cognitive dissonance you give them both a thumbs up, so I did.
That said, I just returned home from a full day away from my computer and market news to discover we're now trading at $2.5X. Sigh. In 15 years of (mostly) investing and (some) trading HTCH is, without question, the most frustrating ticker I've ever bought. Excuse me now while I go pour a drink. A double, I believe. Yeah, that's the ticket. It won't fix anything but I'm bound to feel better.