imprvng: You state - "However in my view fundamentals consist of a product you can sell and a revenue stream from selling it."
I have spent many years advising and educating people regarding fundamental value for a development-stage bio-tech company. Many, if not most of these "investors" - including a number of experienced venture capitalists - had been embarrassed in presentations by bio-tech companies, when they asked questions such as "When do you expect to see revenues and sales?" Most often the answers (from these bio-techs) was "Never."
Very many of these bio-techs take new discoveries and technologies, prove the concept and develop the technology to a point where it can sold. Big pharma has been reducing their R&D budgets and yet have many drugs coming off of patent and need to re-fill their pipeline through acquiring technologies in development. These pharma firms have the sales and distribution networks, and in many cases it makes little sense for small bio-techs to try to replicate their networks for one or two drugs. This is quite often the market and business model for bio-techs. "Products you can sell and a revenue stream from selling it" is very often just not in the cards, not in the plan.
Thus under your definition of fundamentals, none of these bio-techs would have any "fundamental" value. However, if you recognize and understand the business model, the definition of fundamental value is often a reflection of the value of the technology being developed. Certainly eventual sales and the market size enter into that equation. However, a fundamental value can be attributed well before there is a product and sales resulting therefrom
I am not saying that AMPE fits within this category of bio-tech, but it certainly has a number of those elements relating to its fundamental value analysis. Comparable values given to others similarly situated is a decent starting point.
This is like listening to two, three or four seven year olds calling each other names on the playground. If you don't like what someone writes, stop reading what they write. If they present an argument you disagree with, then counter the argument with an argument of your own. These arguments ad hominem (when combined with the total garbage from underground alerts, are significantly detracting from what used to be a pretty good board. PLEASE!
imprvng... I think everyone would appreciate you limiting your posts to your thoughts, opinions and analysis of AMPE... and drop your thoughts, opinions and analysis of other posters.
Imprvng: "The stock today has been going lower on high volume." Huh? As of right now (mid-day)... its up a penny on less than 150,000 shares (less than half of normal volume).
There will be smarter and more erudite people than me that can better answer your question, but I got here first so I'll do what I can.
What you point out is precisely the reason why so many of us think AMPE is so far undervalued. A $1B market cap equates to about $20/share. The reason? I'll give you at least one: AMPE took a non-traditional route to becoming public - having done a reverse merger. As a result there were no major investment bankers that underwrote the company and/or promptly made a market in the stock nor provided respected research and recommendations on the stock. Stock often trades differently from intrinsic value. It is the vested investment banker that works to have the intrinsic value (or even the potential value) reflected in the stock price.
AMPE now has Citi and Jeffries as co-underwiters of its secondary offering. They also purchased 1.25M shares at $7. They have a vested interest based on their own ownership as well as the institutions they got to buy up the offering. We can expect to soon see research coverage from them, and them becoming market makers in the stock. Until that happens, AMPE is almost invisible to the investing community with the exception of those that "play" with stocks of these kinds of companies - both long and short.
Many of these other biotech's you are referring to were also funded by venture capital prior to their IPO. These venture capitalists have connections with most major investment bankers and help to support the stock post-IPO through those connections. AMPE never took any funds from venture capital and thus also has had, and has, no venture capital support.
Hopefully this helps some until others chime in with their insight and wisdom.
Where do you get 45 days from? From what I see, NASD Rule 2711 states as follows:
"(2) Secondary Offerings – A member firm acting as a manager or co-manager of a secondary
offering or[sic] is prohibited from publishing or distributing research or making a public appearance regarding
the issuer for ten calendar days following the date of the offering."
The rule is from October 2011./ Has it been supplanted?
Not sure what will happen this week, but one thing is certain... we will NOT here anything on the Ampion results. The last enrollees are only seven weeks into a twelve week trial.
Good info, bill... I think one of the issues is the actual market cap in 2007 and 2008. In other words, what was the baseline from which the stock then eventually moved. I haven't done the research, but I would guess that the "baseline" market cap of REGN during the Phase III was probably already three or four times that of AMPE. I think many of us are just as much looking for a huge upside in AMPE just getting to more comparable pre-BLA valuation of $800M to $1.2B. Again, my guess is that REGN was already there during the Phase III.
"Not fair!!! I want to hear some stories of drunken debauchery and potential infidelity!!!" - I know, but Agnew can't make it!
Are you confusing Jeffries with Piper? Kinda makes one question validity of your statement....
I just figured the first table on the right as you come into the bar would be a good place to hook up. With Suite making a small sign life is easier.
4:30 works for me. Very familiar with the place... go there all the time. This will be VERY interesting. almost like meeting an online date! (I would guess).
Agree, Super. I try to view it as just another tightening of the coiled spring. Once released (through big news, big firm coverage, big pharma deal) ... then .... boing!