Once again, I retire on a Sunday night and wonder if... and hope... and pray... that this will be THE week. The week of an early Optina report of great results. The week of a Zertane deal. The week of a Louxis IPO announcement. The week of the realization of any number of positive catalysts. The kind of catalyst that will take AMPE over the $12 mark. But alas my head must hit pillow with the questions unanswered, the carrot remaining dangling in front of me, and a rest-less night awaiting me, yet filled with optimism and the recognition that the 100%+ stock appreciation over the past year may only be the beginning. Will THIS be THE week? The week where 5M+ shares short must be covered? The week where major analyst coverage might begin? The week where vasoloc meets milestones and NCE001 reports on pre-clinical results? Only time will tell.....
Not sure.... but a few things to ponder:
1. With full results from Optina and Ampion within weeks, what reasonable institution would roll the dice and bet $25M on the results without major investment banking support? Or without some knowledge of what those results will show (possibly necessitating and restriction on sale of the stock following the offering and for a period of time)?
2. What does this offering say to the shorts and the prospect of them ever getting out below $5.50 at best? What does this say about the prospect of a surprise (to some of us) negative announcement making a short investment pay off?
3. The lack of an investment banker in the transaction, although possibly disappointing for those us looking for share price support from such involvement, makes the deal a) that much more impressive, and b) cash positive for the company - saving both cash and further dilution in the form of over-allotments, etc.
Maybe because I'm blind to anything else, I can't help believing the new investors know what is coming in the Optina, Ampion, Zertane, etc. announcements and made their very bold (non-investment banker supported) investment.
I couldn't find anything in the AMPE filings that reflect any kind of restriction on the sale of the newly issued shares under the offering that closed yesterday. I find it encouraging that the new investors apparently have decided not to go for a quick 30+% gain and dump a bunch of shares today. Close at $5.50 on Monday and sell at $7.50 on Tuesday must certainly have some appeal unless there is a high level of confidence that the upside is significantly greater in the relative short term. Maybe just wishful thinking, or twisting everything possible into a positive sign... but still glad to see there is no apparent profit-taking dump.
Yeah... I would think if you're an institution investing $25M into a company in which you have had no previous interest (per deal documentation these investors were not prior shareholders) you would do some pretty extensive due diligence.
The action in the stock recently has been encouraging. It is still way undervalued, but at least moving ahead nicely. I believe much of this is in anticipation of the meeting with the FDA scheduled for a week from next Tuesday.
If Cavelli is correct regarding major institutional accumulation prior to initiating coverage, there is a chance this coverage or involvement may come before on or shortly after the Tuesday meeting. This meeting is primarily to cover the following:
- Critical interaction between CDER staff and the sponsor in ensuring the submission of a well organized and readily reviewable NDA/BLA
- To determine the adequacy of the sponsor’s dossier for the submission of an NDA/BLA
- To agree on format and content of the application (any specific needs?)
In thinking about what the result of this meeting may be, I see the following possibilities:
- A determination that Ampio's dossier is sufficient for submission, and providing guidance on the organization, format and content of the application. This would be HUGE and could result in an easy doubling of the stock price (or more). it will grab attention and would also make any firm recommending the stock prior to the meeting look like a genius.
- A determination that Ampio's dossier is not sufficient for submission, requiring additional studies, and providing guidance for those studies. This is a matter of timing (and money) and not necessarily a bad thing. This prospect is well (and overly) already reflected in the current pricing. Depending upon how extensive any further studies may need to be, the share price may still go up significantly, and positive guidance going forward may be very favorably viewed - again, making the IB look brilliant.
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- A determination that the dossier is insufficient and safety risks, side effects, or other matters make further study and potential submission inappropriate. This is EXTREMELY unlikely, mostly due to the positive results and the complete lack of any adverse reactions.
In looking at these alternatives, it would appear as though a HUGE jump in the stock price is pretty likely as a result of this meeting. Even under the second scenario (requiring further study), the cost of these studies are fairly low, and the company now has cash sufficient to handle any such possibility.
All of this can enter into the decision process on the part of investment banking firm(s) on the timing, or wisdom, of their coverage and stock recommendations. Emerging Growth Equities recent coverage and $14 price target may have well been timed for this reason. I would not be surprised to see an Aegis price target update as well.
Going back to Cavelli's comment regarding the accumulation of stock prior to coverage,m all of this may make very good sense and bode very well for us longs.
The 5M shares that are still short have also yet to fully hit the stock price as the price has been increasing.
I anticipate having much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.... and a very, very, very Merry Christmas.
.... just MHO....
Where did this "regenerating cartilage" come from? I seem to remember someone saying that and thinking it was ridiculous, but i can't find it. I am sure there is absolutely NO basis for it.
How did you see it? Or know it was speculated therein? I'd love to find out. If true, that is truly a stellar revelation!!
That's what i thought. Tissue regeneration doesn't make sense.