Expect to see more activity in coal liquifaction. Coal reserves will appreciate if this happens.
In WW2, Germany made oil from coal, ran 100% on this. If Russian oil is cutoff, I can see this happening again.
Good news might be: GOP takeover of Senate (coal friendly); M&A activity in coal; cutoff of Russian/Ukranian coal exports; coal liquifaction (SASOL process--SASOL makes coal into oil--most of South African oil).
I think Arch can get well above $5 on good news, and potentially to $10-12. Old highs above $35 probably pipe dreams though.
Disclosure: long BTU & ACI call options.
And coal liquifaction poses less risk to the environment than shale oil fracking issues, like groundwater contamination.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
SASOL is the leader; most of the refined oil products in South Africa are derived form coal liquifaction. With unconventional drilling in shale formations & coal liquifaction, USA could thumb its nose at OPEC oil cartel.
Broken all trend lines. Megaphone formation points down to $470 eventually. $600 test could come fast.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The stock prices are deeply on sale. Might see interest from oil & gas companies, which are energy companies. SASOL process makes coal equivalent to oil & gas. SASOL produces most of South Africa's refined products from coal.
Most predictions are that they will retake Senate. In fact, a Senator from coal state Kentucky will be the new Majority leader. Coal stocks already moving up in anticipation of GOP landslide. Also, Europe seems likely to consider coal gassification & liquifaction to replace Russian oil & gas. Germany ran on coal gas & oil in WW2, and South Africa does today (SASOL). Arch coal may hit $6 imho.
Coal gassification & liquifaction: the best way to show the "finger" to Putin :)
The all time high near $90 probably out of reach, but $50 seems possible imho.
People forget that Germany ran on the coal to gas & oil in WW2, and they could do it again if necessary. South Africa today converts coal to oil (SASOL). BTU to $25+, maybe $50 eventually. On sale!
Had technical analyst that was wildly bullish on coal stocks. Going to the MOON, Alice! Think we see BTU to $25 at least.
Downside as low as $470 (the lower line of the "megaphone") appears the worst case in a market selloff. Test of $600 could happen soon.
Buy KOL. Buy BTU. Buy ACI. Buy Consol. Just hold your nose & BUY! Going up 50-75% in a few months. Coal friendly Republicans will capture Senate.
Market could easily absorb the new shares, since the stock is on fire. Maybe even sell 50,000,000 new shares.
In the best interest of the company & shareholders, sell 30,000,000 more shares & retire debt.