Don't get carried away by the bullish blather. Stock has come a long way, and the valuation seems stretched. A weak hold, at best. And always be ready to exit if key technical levels are broken.
SP & Dow futures look strong, for now. Fade any rally.
Upside may be limited imho. In a correction, if that occurs at some point, $low $600s may be tested. If that fails, perhaps $490-510. But a deeper correction here seems to await October. For the short term, worst case might be 200 day around $617 if a selloff develops.
Cash position quite low relative to companies like Apple, Mr. Softy etc. Is dilution coming via new stock & bond sales, or will profits rise enough to take care of cash needs? I'm skeptical.
My policy is to increase my silver purchases when the G/S price ratio is above 70, as it is now, start reducing silver below 60:1 G/S, and buy mostly gold below 40:1 G/S. Right now, put 75% of funds in silver, 25% in gold. I also like palladium.
All fiat currencies eventually are inflated to zero, or close to zero. Even the dollar. Dollars today are worth less than 2% of 1900 dollars, in terms of purchasing power.
Is that a "doubt" discount?
By "cash", I don't just mean currncy, but demand deposits in safe banks (checking & money market) as well as very short term treasury bills (3 months & less). Checking deposits best. All longer term notes & bonds exposed to principle risk if rates rise should be sold imho. The tiny interest rate just doesn't compensate for the risk of a major fall if rates rise on the longer dated (5 years & out) notes & bonds.
Of course the rally could really pick up steam faster than I expect if the dollar resumes its downtrend. We shall see.
The new policy might be revenue maximization, which means production cuts which will probably drive the price up more than the percent cut. The frac oil supply is falling fast in the U.S., and Iran can't crank up all that fast. Nearterm maybe $14-15ish, longer term back over $20 in USO.
USO could see $15-16 by summer, or even much higher if the oild producing areas destabilize. The fires in Canada aren't the big story.
All bonds...Japanese, European, U.S. Get paid close to zero...hold cash instead.
Grant is correct, just a matter of when...days, weeks or months.
The jig is about up with NIRP & ZIRP. Confidence in CB monetary experiments clearly dwindling. Cash is superior to bonds (lose almost no interest with rates near zero), and a portion of cash should be put into gold & silver imho, as the highest quality common stocks (no more than 25%). Most in cash until the direction is clear.
Precisely--I don't understand why anybody buys the 1% garbage. Nothing different than Zimbabwe with their printing press beyond the fact that the $ is a "reserve currency" whatever that means & for how long?
Holter says you might have just days or hours left to buy silver coins & bars below $20.