Bonds are in the greatest bubble of all time, greater than the 1930s and greater than 2008. TBT should show some spectacular gains. starting soon in my opinion.
If the 20 year bond backs up to as low as 3.25%, TBT should show 30-50% gains. Call options could produce 500-2000% gains.
You think 20 year rates are going to zero? I have this Florida swampland you might be interested in. TBT in the $30s is a levered way to play a backup in rates or a dollar selloff (which will probably accompany the backup in rates). We are NOT in some "new era"---we are in a strange bubble where bonds are excessively loved and bid up. This will change, and rates will revert to the mean long term of 3-5%, maybe more.
"Trends that can't continue, will" until they don't. In the age of instant communications and instant trading, ternds can change in an instant. In 2005 and 2006, everyone was yammering about how real estate could only go up. I had my doubts, said we might be in a bubble & bought some puts on home building stocks. Made a bundle in 2007 and 2008. I think bonds are in a bubble now. I may be early, but this bubble will pop.
The number of billionaires in recent years has expanded vastly, and most are underowned in gold & silver. During this time, the supply of gold & silver has not expanded nearly as much as the billionaire cash.
The tell will be a $75 or $100 up day. Maybe more.
This means that the price of gold will have to rise much much higher ($2500?) to equilibrate supply & demand if some or most of the billionaires decide to increase gold (& silver) holdings.
And Syb, zero (& negative rates) = zero (and negative) carry costs to own gold.
Syb, you going to bet against Soros on this? And Gundlach? All are calling for a gold "meltup" as faith in central banks goes bye bye. Syb, don't miss the gold train.
So is billionaire Mark Cuban--on CNBC in minutes---promo says he is super-bullish on gold.
This is getting "veddy interesting"
When Central banks Panic & go to Negative rates = Buy Gold (carry costs zero)
Big traders are underowned in gold, so they must play catch up before the meltup Gundlach predicts.
All realated to credit default swaps blowing out--banks are afraid to lend to eachother, esp. in Europe.
Gundlach says rally is just starting! BUY!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Dollar an unnecessary layer of complication". All fine and dandy for US buyers, but don't you think the dollar enters into the buy/sell decision of traders of U.S. bonds outside of the U.S.?
Gold is the big winner today, but one day's action doesn't make a trend. Watch it like a hawk.