No--there would still be a NBG, but true, the common shareholders would probably get nothing--like GM bailout in 2008.
Catalyst near term would be weaker than expected earnings in the SP500, mainly because of the strong dollar.
That would be substantial. My near term worst case would be 1885-1995 area in next two weeks or so; perhaps below 1800 in May. Sub 1800, probably not until late summer or fall, unless there is some unexpected "financial "black swan".
Is this the decline to SP500 1700-1800 area?
Actually, I'd prefer Chines e food to German--who knows what goes into their sausages?
Try the silkworms. They eat those too.
But don't let your cats out at night.
Debt wiped out. Hotels full occupancy. Huge current account surplus. In the long run, good in my opinion. Best of all--Greece a master of its own fate.
The "core" would have the strong euro--Germany, Netherlands, France etc. The weaker periphery--Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy etc.--would have the weaker euro with a lower exchange rate that would allow them to grow. That is my solution.
You say "Greece is a 3rd world nation at heart". If that is true, then Portugal & Italy & maybe Spain don't belong in EU either. Ever been to Sicily or Calabria or south Portugal? Greece looks sophisticated in comparison.
No deal with Iran: oil pops $5-7+
Deal: oil drops $1-2
Plus more wells are being shut in than are in the figures.
Bottom line: cover shorts as I did Friday, establish pioneer longs