Price prediction: won't mention a date, since the market can remain irrational for an unknown period of time; at some point in the next 6 months Apple may trade in a 10% range, up or down 10% from here. However Amazon may sink as low as $325. Again, could happen any time. Next month or 6 months.
Mildly bearish on Apple, wildly bearish on AMZN.
Apple has 4 potential problems: growth in China, competition in China (Xiaomi), and lack of visability in new products, and the collapse in demand for the watch. But the PE is low and they have tons of cash.
Amazon has many potentila problems which the market chooses to ignore: stratospheric PE; relatively low cash compared to Apple,; commoditization of "cloud services" which could lower profits in the future; costly distribution model (vast warehouses, labor intensive; vast inventories).
Amazon is the much better short by far.
I'm sorry you bought puts that are about to expire, but the little bird will fly high again with the right leadership.
Today on CNBC. Greenspan warned that bonds could crash, said "interest rates are now below where they've been for generations, even millennia". Huge crash of bonds coming as foreigners dump. TBT to $65+
Bubblicious low rates as Greenspan said, foreign owners with twitchy fingers & a need for funds. Recipe for $110 or lower TLT.
Well, he did warn about "irrational exhuberance" a year or two before the tech bubble burst in 2000 (but did nothing about it). But there is that silly "WIN" (whip inflation now) button thing in 1974, right before the recession, but others made him do it.
If Greenspan warns of a "bond bubble", I would not ignore his warning Marenkov.
May sell a few puts in mid $20s, have stock put to me there.
Use these minicrashes to establish buys.
They are moving to a domestic demand economy anyway, so the exchange rate impact seems to be of lower concern. Besides, U.S. sales of Chinese stocks would partly cancel Chinese sales of USTs.
May impact the exchange rate somewhat, but the Chinese could do a lot of domestic good with $1.5 trillion.
Today, Puerto Rico announced it may not be able to make debt payments coming due (covered on CNBC). Should the U.S. government help Puerto Rico pay its debts?
Puerto Rico is a U.S. commonwealth so the U.S. may bail them out.