Pe/g ratio (using a forward PE est. of 200) are now over 10 I believe, nosebleed level. Normal pegs should be at best 3, or below. Ideally under 2. This could be worse if the growth or profits don't materialize as expected.
data storage (& computation), of course. Worth something, but not a 900 PE (& retail sure not worth above a 20 PE). At best, If you assign a 20% growth rate to Amazon (lates figure is below this), maybe you can make a case for a twice growth valuation....not 900+. I'm from Missouri. Show me the profits.
This is important, because "commodities" rarely commander "economic profits", or "rents" in economic jive talk. I see lots of competitors, MSFT, Oracle & others. "Cloud" is fancy talk for outside data storage.
Also, many of the "Nifty 50s" had trailing PE ratios in the 40-60 range when they started to plunge, miles below Amazon's nosebleed trailing PE above 900. Get your facts straight.
Do you just pull facts out of the air? On;ly 1.77% of Amazon float is short..tiny! As far as the "Nifty 50s" not being shorted..they were, more than 1.77% of float. Low short interest in Amazon tells me the plunge could be brutal, whenever it starts.
That didn't end well, & doubt this ends well either. Remember when FANG used to be "CANSLIM"? The reduced number of letters reflects the narrowing of the list.
He compares the current mania for "FANG" with the doomed "Nifty 50" stock craze in the early 1970s.
Article by Jesse Felder, a yahoo Fin. contributor, can be viewed in "headlines" section. Felder focuses on the retail aspects of Amazon, where margins are razor thin. He questions the profit growth assumptions, saying that if they try to raise margins others will swoop in. I would also add that the "Cloud services" part of Amazon is, in my opinion, becoming increasingly commodity-like, and competitor Mr. Softy has lots of buckaroos.
If you haven't read it, DO! Bulls too.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Just as an example of the big slowdown in the U.S., sales of big ticket machine tools were down an amazing 83%! Recesssion may be coming, led by (guess what)....the strong dollar. Dollar needs to weaken.
Int, rate differentials don't matter when your economy is slowing & the "fer'ners" want out.
You have to hand it to them, the weeks before Christmas maximize their bargaining power.
Gardena distibution facility; workers urge other facilities to join. If this spreads, could really crimp deliveries.
Don't be a bagholder if downgrades happen here.