I can rent movies I want to see from Redbox for $1.60. Nearly all moths, there are only one or two that are worth renting, so I spend maybe $5 renting the films I want to see, & can watch them on my large screen TV, not on some small computer screen.
I think so.
1. Band width problem--feeds on bandwidth like a vampire on steroids, bandwidth it doesn't provide. What if band prices go up?
2. Content problem--good content is expensive, whether bought form others or made in house. Movie studios, if you haven't noticed, have a huge failure rate since flops are mixed in with hits. Whaever happened to MGM, the king studio of the 1930s-40s? This riskiness should mean a low PE--NFLX has a huge PE out of line with risk imho.
3. Fickle consumer problem--I doubt most consumers are willing to pay much more than $10 a month.
In my opinion, a correct valuation for NFLX would mean a price at or below $50. We'll see if Mr. Market agrees.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Al the double and triple leveraged ETFs/ETNs decay because of the rollover problem. Normal "contango" (higher prices further ou) mean that when the shift from the expiring future to the new farther out future they pay the 'contango' tax--the new future is a higer, different price. In the rare case of "backwardization", i suppose the rollover would give them a profit, but that is rarer.
Actually might be worse than Japan, since they fund their debt almost entirely domestically, whereas the U.S. relies on foreigners to fund a significant part. A "rollover" problem with heavy implications at some point for the dollar.
I might add a fourth point:
4. ZIRP & NIRP lead to increased currency volatility & trade wars, as nation states and currency blocks pursue "beggar thy neighbor" policies.
1. Spurs takeovers and mergers, which destroy employment.
2. Reduced (or zero) interest income for savers, which destroys purchasing power.
3. Leads to deflation by creating excess supplies of commodities and other goods because borrowing costs are so low (Ed Yardeni argument)
If ZIRP is bad, NIRP (negative rate policies) would be catastrophic.
Negative rates will panic all the markets. People will ask "what exactlty is the FED so scared might happen to let rates go below zero?"
This rally could occur as early as next week acc. to Kelly.
Massive shorts to be unwound. Rally could be very rapid according to Kelly.
If that happens, GDX could easily soar 90-125% from here.
And a negative int. rate TBill is worse than cash. So who would buy them?
Yes, Mr. K. What kind of fool would hold a neg. int. rate TBill when you could hold 0 rate cash?
2 out of 3 right--stock futures down big, dollar down but TLT is up pre-market. I think TLT rally will fade, maybe today or maybe next week. I see 115 soon.
Every excuse not to ever ever raise. Always something. OK for a net creditor nation, but for a debtor? Will the "ferners" continue to buy bonds???