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Reynolds American Inc. Message Board

the_quarry 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2015 8:22 AM Member since: Jun 1, 1999
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  • the_quarry the_quarry Aug 14, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    My full disclosure - I sold all of my shares.

    My opinion is that the stock is down because of all the negatives that you mentioned, especially the lower guidance forward, and a deteriorating industry fundamentals. It is not that the company or management is bad, but the industry is in a difficult environment currently.

    As to your listed positives, I agree that they are positives, but not nearly enough to outweigh the negatives. A fat dividend, even if tax free, is not to offset a bad industry. Unfortunately, since they did so well in the recent past, there comparable quarters over the next year will be almost impossible to meet. Stock price is based on future earnings. I think one of your positives is not as positive as you may think - lease growth rate is not necessarily positive here as it is locking them into lower rates than previous; again hurting future earnings.

    I love the company, but not as investment right now. I am waiting for them to say that lease rates are increasing. When they do, I am investing again.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Next 2 Years

    by the_quarry Aug 5, 2015 2:37 PM
    the_quarry the_quarry Aug 7, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    The problem is NOT the amount of trade. Trade was up over the last year, yet their earnings and revenue still fell dramatically. The issue is that lease ratings are falling, which is mainly being driven because the cost to build the containers are so much cheaper. Steel prices have dropped dramatically.

    Even if lease rates stopped falling and flattened out, it would still be an issue because leases expiring now (roughly 20% a year for next 5 years) are so much higher from when they were signed in previous years. The quarterly comparisons will be tough for a couple of years to come unless the rates rise a lot and immediately.

  • Reply to

    Next 2 Years

    by the_quarry Aug 5, 2015 2:37 PM
    the_quarry the_quarry Aug 6, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    I wish I had such a great run from $10 to $50, but thanks to the fall in price and my timing, it only allowed me a double. I'm not complaining.

    I agree that what the price was does not matter now, but I am not sure that it is now at the bottom either. I am not going to buy based on the price. I'm going to wait until they say that lease rates are increasing, whatever the price is then.

  • Reply to

    Next 2 Years

    by the_quarry Aug 5, 2015 2:37 PM
    the_quarry the_quarry Aug 5, 2015 10:16 PM Flag

    My bad, typing too fast and not checking before posting. It is not the earnings, but was suppose to say $25 a share, i.e., the share price is down $25 per share since the start of the year. People touting a ~$3 dividend while the share price falls 8x that seems to be missing the point.

    Their earnings are falling a little now, but that is not why the stock is down so much. It is because, as they themselves said on the conference call, it is probably going to get worse through 2016 or 2017. I had been invested in TAL for almost 3 years (I'm out now), but I think it will be at least a year before the air clears.

  • the_quarry by the_quarry Aug 5, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    TAL looks in trouble for the next couple of years. Yes, they have a $3.50 dividend and, yes it is largely tax free. But that is somewhat meaningless in face of loosing $5 a share since the beginning of the year.

    As CEO John Burns said on the conference call that they "expect the average portfolio will continue to decrease for the remainder of 2015 as more of the highly priced leases written in 2010 expire. If lease rates continue at current low levels . . . decrease will accelerate in 2016 and 2017".

    It is not about what they are earning now, but what they will earn. Unless you believe that lease rates are going to turn around and rise significantly within the next 4-6 months, I would stay out of this industry, not just this stock, until it does.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Harry Boxer's Charts of the Day

    by thetechtraderca Jun 26, 2015 8:39 AM
    the_quarry the_quarry Jul 30, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Down $3.00 today after earnings. Adjusted Pre-Tax Income, down 16%, Adjusted Net Income, down 18%, and Net Income, down 9%. Don't have all of the details of what income (leasing, resales, etc.) is the issue if not all.

    Cannot say they did not warn you last call. Conference call going on now. I cannot wait to listen to it later today. I doubt the fundamental industry issues have changed. Might be a while.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Harry Boxer's Charts of the Day

    by thetechtraderca Jun 26, 2015 8:39 AM
    the_quarry the_quarry Jun 28, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    No news? Did you read the last quarterly report and, more importantly, the last conference call notes? Even they admit they are in a tough position that is going to get worse as their long term leases roll off into a much lower lease rate environment. Since oil prices are lower, steel prices are much lower. This means that the resale value of used containers is also lower, which is especially harmful since they decided a couple of years ago to raise the residual value of the containers (which seemed illogical in a falling rate environment). This is increase value means a bigger loss on each one.

    They will need trade volume to increase significantly (seems unlikely) to help offset these issues. I sold after the last call and a waiting for this to turn around, but unfortunately, I don't think you are going to see a lot of good news for a while.

    Sentiment: Hold

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