.....even 1 product can make.
Viropharma (VPHM) just got bought up by Shire Pharma at $40-$50 per share.
Right now it's $49.50 per share.
VPHM has like maybe 3 products (one of them is an orphan drug).
I used to trade them on and off a couple of years ago when they had just the 1 approved drug.
And here we sit, starting practically from zero (again) and seemingly always having to disprove some safety problem which most of the time doesn't really exist. Like groping for our butts in the dark.
Even just one approved product can make the difference between "wanted" and "scourged". What are we waiting for now? 2015? 2016?
Well, Happy Thanksgiving (for another year) to all the old timers and hangers-on.
(Not you FD, BFS, whatever you are. Go eat some greasy old road kill somewhere out in the cold.)
"Assume the worst, but hope for the best"
If you get results that are better than the worst, then you are so much the better off.
If you get the worst, then you had expected that as default anyways.
You don't believe that entities bigger (and brighter) than you had not already considered what you proposed (that EMEA would uphold the FDA's US decision on Heplisav)?
I'm sure that they did before they plunked their monies down. Rational analysis would only dictate it so.
Lastly, even if the EMEA delivers the worst, Dynavax is already working at the delaying, re-run trial; so, if the worst comes it's already been factored in by the FDA. I'm sure that some monkeys would show up to try to oversell, but how far do they expect to get on something which the FDA has already set in motion?
Dynavax is pretty much starting over from zero anyways. 2 candidates in phase 1 levels and a re-run on something which the financial markets has already pretty much written off as "probably won't make it".
That's pretty much starting over from zero (or at least from $1.25).
I don't know why I am wasting time on you, you are most likely just another alias of FD's or BF's (same, same).
Suggestion for the future. Think first before you write......
Here's my TA on you.
You are a maggot and #$%$.
That will continue long into the future, well beyond our sight.
Your chart is pretty much all downhill from here on out.
And BTW, you DESERVE IT!
YOU telling someone else to "watch their mouth" ???
After the nasty things you wrote about my wife (whom you don't know from Adam's house cat)????
I always KNEW that you were playing both sides of the street on DVAX; that's why you have so many bloody aliases. You're boiler-room-trash and I always KNEW it.
"watch your mouth"....... pah!
And what are you, so deserving of some respect?
You're no more than "boiler-room garbage wrapped in skin".......
What we have lived with DVAX (that you described) is called reality.
I don't know what that Brasil moron's problem is, but I don't think he's living in reality.
Reality leaves a lasting impression; something not soon forgotten.
Something like what the long term chart for this stock shows.
$20 to $35 ????!!!!
PURE snake-oil salesman. A real politician.
Try looking at more than 5 days worth of the chart and you'll start to get a clue where DVAX is at.
"$20 to $35" Pah!
You should come with some sort of warning label........
Anyone notice that?
Look at a basic chart on a 1YR setting.
3 drops down, the two previous are both followed by an upward slanting recovery phase.
The latest one, since July 13th, no recovery. Just flat, flat.
Notice that? Why?
The stock has shown the tendancy several times, on it's own, to want to go up and go higher.
And yet, we keep going back to $1.10.
I searched for it briefly and cannot find it.
On my brokers site, I find the brief PR that Jefferies is maintaining their $3 recommendation and buy rating.
I believe that Cowen is handling the latest share offering in some form, and could be considered sort of suspect in any recommendations, ratings, upgrades, etc, etc. Manure spreading by a farmer cultivating vegatables which he will see a profit from, when sold.
Sorry. I'm sure that analogy will be viewed dimly, but truthfully, what WOULD you expect Cowen to rate DVAX as(with them having a relationship in a share offering)?
Honestly, I would trust neither of them. Neither Jefferies and crooks or Cowen. They're both baked as far as I am concerned. Jefferies proved themselves compromised when they kept right on rating DVAX as a buy over the last year period; right through the whole VRBPAC thing right up to now.
DVAX could not have truly been a "buy" as it was falling steadily all the way down. No?
Forget both of them; wall street tricksters, and nothing more.
$3 per share would be in a different solar system from where we are now, nevermind $5-$6.
Honestly. This thing will have to grind it's way, slowly up the ladder to $3. Same as it's always been.
We are having to start over again from pretty much zero (like 2009). It's going to be a long road (just like before). It's just the way it is.
What a joke!
KNEW you were ENGLISH. What a "tell"
In your dreams would anyone here call you Sir FDS, with anything BUT sarcasm.
You have to earn it first, zero.
It's a nice try, but it comes with the territory, and it's (pretty much) all efforts in vain.
Cohen is right. FINRA would be the ones to give a "flying flup" before the SEC (and I doubt anyone is "at home" in the SEC anyways. They have all left the building in one form or another).
When the watchdog is dead or "looking the other way" or what have you, the "mice" will play.
And in a situation(s) like what we have with this company presently, those mice are probably playin' heavy, M-F, 9:30 to 4:00. Full tilt, no drag.
This isn't $30 per share "cheese" either. This isn't even $10 per share cheese.
This is $1.45 per share cheese (at best), and rife with opportunity for both sides to steal.
Both sides (longs and shorts) know it; they know that no reguatory agency is going to be watching and those the game is most likely being played on both sides. I would assume that it is not only one side with dirty hands.
After the mugging the company took over the last year from Daum, GSK, and the FDA, do the pilfering of shares either way mean that much??? Honestly?
The recent developments reminded me of when the "lot-to-lot trial" results came through.
The company "stepped in it" and missed their primary endpoint and would have deserved the spanking due; but the FDA and stock market saved their collective bacon and the share price didn't take a bath.
I have NEVER seen this company go to the shelf for Class B preferred shares to sell and yet, I think the stock market seems to have applauded that move and news MORE heartily than the latest plans for Heplisav retest. Imagine that!
Yesterday, I saw $1.08 per share in AH at some point, (but I was busy with other things) and today's closing price looks like, "smelling like a rose" in comparison. Thank God for small favors (as far as I'm concerned).
After the year we have seen with Dynavax? Screw it! Break out the fried chicken and sell it as some chiropratic therapy! Whatever makes the PPS go up!
One last note, if this group or person (less likely one individual) can make such a presence on this media, how could they NOT be "juking" the stock as well in the marketplace???
I.E.: they are most likely the ones "yo-yo-ing" the stock's PPS between $1 and $1.45 and predicting the (short term) chart patterns, to boot......
Here is my count on it (up to 10/23/13):
laquanzeesha (and her sisters) * at least 2 with this one
gildslayor (and associated gooblefreaks) *at least 2 with this one
at least that many for fairly certain.
I suspect also these:
dt(some random numbers)
Careful, he is quick, try to turn things around on his accusers; saying that THEY are actually all of those plus the accusers ID. This a real boiler room character here.
I believe that he planted that buyout message on GSK's board (and XOM and BP) after I ran my mouth about holding a position in XOM. I believe that he wanted the fake buyout message found; but he wanted it found in somplace where I might go looking.
I suspect that he is with an English (UK) boiler-room on behalf of some UK based hedge or one which deals with or for GSK. If this person, or persons isn't a boiler-room, it's one of the most sophisticated "lone wolfs" which I have ever seen.
An humungous amount of effort and overworking for a small company and stock like Dynavax.
Why so much effort?
Our simple, small town MB stopped being so, long ago.
If Mr. Gray had gone and appealed to his former employer for assistance with funding as part of a, "co-development deal" (as it has been sometimes described of by certain writers), then wouldn't you agree that would have shown real commitment (by our new CEO) to the company and primary pipeline candidate which he is suppose to represent.
Yet, he didn't. Why would that be? Doesn't THAT say somehting?
Just imagine for a moment what would be getting written about him (here) if he HAD brought home some bacon to apply for Heplisav's ailments. "Hero" wouldn't cover it, I daresay.
He is a former employee, still in good standing, but yet he cannot broach the subject of money and funding of Heplisav's trial with his former employer?
Especially when his former employer has been described as having some "development partnership" (that no one can find much real proof of) on the compound that is going back into trials?
1/8th of $50MM would not hardly dent GSK. They are probably paying China more in damages in lieu of admitting to any wrongdoing on that bribery scandal a few months ago.
But, why buy the cow when you can get the whole farm for free ?
The short answer is that, "the horse is already out of the barn" there, Scoot.
As far as trials and efficacy are concerned, Heplisav has already turned over the last shovelful of dirt on Engerix as far as proving itself superior goes.
We all know it here. Everyone at Dynavax knows it. Many, I'm sure, at the FDA and in other medicine / scientific arenas are aware of it too.
It was even just published in "Vaccine", as a peer review thing; and no one came forward to dispute or refute the publication in anyway, since it appeared.
I'm sure that you're aware of all of that as well.
This new trial mess isn't about Heplisav working better or worse. It's a smoke screen, a delay loop, 2 more years to ensure continued sales for Engerix-B. "It's a television show about nothing" Does that sound familiar? It's a farce.
So, you read the posts here. You're a smart guy. What's the dope on the board about GSK taking over Dynavax? GSK is already onboard for $800+MM in programs. Who do you think is most likely to end up getting Heplisav as a trophy?
But yet it would be unrealistic to expect our new CEO to "make some deal" and ask GSK to pony up $6.25MM (1/8th of $50MM) to back something which they will most likely get anyways????
So, I guess you LIKE the idea of Dynavax funding everything themselves but not being allowed to see any rewards from their efforts???
Please, Scoot, I respect you more than that.
Daum helped to bring down Heplisav to where it is now. What big pharmas company has he been proven to have ties to?
Who is the CEO of Dynavax right now? What company did he work for?
Who is Heplisav's chief competitor? Who was the real winner when Heplisav was denied even restriced use for CKD folks?
It all goes back to the SAME 3 initials; and you know who that is. They are most likely going to end up with the thing which we all nailed our hopes to for the last 4-5 years.
You had asked me this question:
I suppose that if you have to ask, then you don't understand.
But your purpose in asking the question was more likely a rhetorical one. and less a genuinely interrogative one. It's most likely the same result though.
Why would GSK help fund a trial which will prove that their vaccine works worse than Heplisav?
No, no, no.
You mean, "bluddy brilliant"! (like that red haired kid from Harry Potter used to say it).
I do like Michael Caine though, he is a good actor.
Wouldn't it be a treat if our new CEO sounded like Benny Hill instead?
I'm not Eddie (thank goodness), but you've got my vote!
Just don't be fooled though; Eddie is not going to listen to anyone here or any of his underlings.
Eddie is here to ONLY listen to the counsel of one entity; and that entity's initials are G.S.K.
Excellent post though, DNB. :-)
You don't need to be sorry for expressing your voice and views.
I'm not attempting to argue or denigrate the The Capt'n s point or yours.
I actually like both of you guys and I read all of your posts even if I don't always respond to them.
But honestly, Outboard Jack; do you REALLY believe that Dynavax will ONLY recruit 5,500 people for this trial and say, "close enough" for the last 2,500?
Or that The FDA will tell Dynavax,, "don't worry about the last 2,500 people in the study"??? Or, "You can scrap the last 2.500 from the database"?
Honestly. HONESTLY, we BOTH know that is NOT likely.
8,000 is the number Outboard Jack; and 8,000 is the number agreed to AND will expect.
What would have been AWESOME news, would have been if good ole' Mr. Gray had reached out to his former employers and politely asked them to assist with funding of the trial up to an 1/8th or 1/4 or even 1/2. Or at least put their company name and "blessings" on the trial as it goes forward (in hopes that the FDA doesn't kill it for any odd reasons which Daum might once again come forward with).
But somehow, none of that seems to have happened, and GSK will be merely content to sit back and watch Dynavax do all of the heavy lifting (yet again).
A little funding would have shown REAL "developmental cooperation" and commitment on Heplisav; wouldn't you say?
Especially since GSK will (most likely) be the one to benefit most from Heplisav (considering that their former "company man' is running our company and all).
I "get" that you are less than appreciative of my thoughts here, but after the course of the last 4-5 years, "my money" (here at DVAX) is more tempered with REALITY than it is with "horse blinded support".
If I need to apologize for that, then, "I'm sorry"; but that is life and experience. Once burned, twice shy, Sir.