Just hold on. Nibble a little here and there. I have followed this stock for over 10 years. It is volatile. The dividend comes and goes.
Low Energy (if it lasts) will have huge effects in the US and maybe even more in China and India, not to mention they will offset production costs for FCX.
That is all theory.
There is nothing in here but extra clarifications that production is not restarting.
Here is my 2 cents, but I offer it up for free.
Currently, Canada and the regions supporting the Oil Sands, has limited options to transport it's oil, either light or heavy. It lacks major pipelines in all directions that reach capable refineries or major export hubs.
Because of this, I would guess that a premium is placed on Rail car capacity/availability, or Tanker Trucks. There may even be elevated insurance costs while transporting via Rail car or Tanker Truck due to elevated risk of loss, but that is only a guess on my part.
Approval of any large pipeline project, that can more efficiently and safely transport Canadian oil, light or heavy, would add competition to the oil transport infrastructure in place and lower transportation costs for all producers across the board.
As my thesis goes, any of the proposed pipelines, if approved and built to completion, would be like a rising sea that would lift all ships whether those producers used the pipeline directly or not.
I am hoping the current downtrend is a bet on an announced Distribution cut. Currently up above a 12% yield right now.
Something has to give.
Genetically Modified High Yield seeds are under attack. The World Population continues to grow. Viable farmland due to Climate change could be in question.
Short term, this company is a train wreck. I foolishly gambled a bit, thinking this company was going the way of the baby in the bathwater, when the Potash Cartel was fractured. Then it reported last qtr.'s results. An EPS miss by 96%? Are you kidding me? That's like getting dealt two aces on a gamble of Black Jack, splitting, and hitting 3s on each, with the dealer sitting at 17.
And do not get me wrong. Stock Market Investing is a pure Gamble. No matter the news, the Big Money gets what the Big Money wants. Big Money picks and chooses what is good news vs. bad news and it is not consistent.
So, I tend to Gamble on Long Term Thesis. I hope that my bad initial bets recover over time. I am not a trader.
Currently RNF is sitting at a 11%+ yield. I do not expect that to last but I could be wrong as revenues rose 70% and this is an MLP. But, Margins were crushed due to competition.
In the end for me, when I expect to see the need for increased farmland and yield to support Human populations, the push against Genetically Modified seeds, and the initial need to support new Farmland as climate change affects the landscape, I see a strong future for basic Fertilizer components to jump start production, where none could be found prior.
I am only 42. I am investing for retirement 20+ years from now.
Figures, I didn't follow my own advice. I was waiting for a second round of selling, not a continued and slow recovery. Yes recovery. 16% down vs 22% down. I should have bought at 22% down and balanced out some losses.
This volatility is not yet over. The price may be manipulated upward for other big players to recover losses. I am not a buyer here at all. Not yet anyway.
NRO has been spitting out 2 cents since the dark days of 2009. This is not a Mortgage Reit. It is a Real Estate Reit. That may sound redundant, but it is not. I feel it is the baby in the bathwater, getting thrown out with all other Reits.
I was averaged in pretty low and sold around $2 to bet on a sure thing penny stock. Well, lets say after a 25K loss on that venture, I have finally been able to recover enough skin to get back into the game. Technically it's not all lost, I still have over 15K in debentures which of course the company can't cover. Just waiting for the dismantling and bankruptcy process so I can claim my losses on my taxes.
Anyway I havce started to dabble back into NRO and am thrilled to get in below $5. I do need to review their top holdings again. I know they were heavy into the Healthcare Property Reits and Tanger Properties, which last I looked has boosted its dividend 10% over the past two years. (.20 vs .22)
Aside from my rambling, here's a suggestion. Try a short fund on Treasuries. I have done ok the past 2 weeks in PST and TBF.
And I just realized your post is from Apr 9th. You still out there Dwoods?
That is if the numbers work out as well.
Sorry you got burned in 2007. You should have sold at the top.
Most here have bought NRO below a dollar and have enjoyed a 10% dividend along the way. A few have even been able to trade the ups and downs caused by the tender offers.
It does not take rocket science to figure this fund out. Anyone can look at the annual and semi-annual reports and see NRO's actual holdings, and even figure out what NRO is bringing in.
In the dark days after Lehman, which Neuberger was a part of, this fund with Neuberger could have been liquidated, and all the longs given pennies on the dollar in return. Instead Neuberger fought for independence and regained it, as well as keeping this fund whole and paying out giving the longs a chance to recoup losses if they played it smart, and didn't panic and bail. I would think that most here today bought these types of funds with blood in the streets in 2009.
Unbelievable the knee jerk reaction here. I actually thought TGB was trading alone on Gibraltar and copper over $3.80!
Sadly, I have been out of my position since $4.
Good luck to all.
If I had to choose, I would choose the company with a viable future business model and that is Netflix. Blockbuster will go under.
Netflix has the foothold on streaming and that is where everything will move to. Even my Blue Ray player will support Netflix streaming videos.
Just because I choose Netflix here though doesn't mean that I think it is a cheap buy. It's not at all, and I would be interested in buying it between $25 and $40 a share.
I do not own Netflix shares now, nor have I in the past. I just watched it in wonder from the $70 range on up.
When you say Pre-crash, you mean around $15 with a 10% Yield?
Even I am having a tough time of being bullish this week.
I don't think we ever see $15 again. I do see $8 and maybe $10 in the next couple of years, but it depends on how contagious this euro fiasco becomes.
I am hoping that out of the smoke, US assets as a whole will be seen as the most safe, and thus maintain and gain in value. All bets are off again until that realization is made. Our cities and States need to WAKE UP now and control their budgets and slash the their debts.
Just keep doubting George.
If you haven't heard, we DID just go through the Greatest Recession since the Great Depression.
This is and will continue to be a V shaped recovery.
Maybe for NRO to double...again...in the next 6 months is a bit optomistic, but it will be damn close to it.
You just keep waiting for that Dow 4000.
A Chinese company won't give a crap anyway about sanctions or where NSU is listed when they decide to buy out NSU.
I had paid as high as $12 I think, with a 9% yield. I also bought as low as .69 with a 30% yield or something like that. I bought a lot more below $2 than over $2 the past few years. I did sell my position (3.40ish) to raise capital for a private investment deal.
I am really itching for that deal to pay off a little bit, so I can get back in.
I am bullish on North America. Europe is heading towards Socialist Hell. Asia may or may not be a bubble ready to burst. Even though the US also has debt issues, it is still the best of the worst and capitalism will live on, as long as the US heeds what is happening in Europe. The gvt cannot help everyone, nor can it pay them 14 months of salary for 12 months of work.
Sorry....Soapbox speach. lol