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SandRidge Permian Trust Message Board

thechiefaz 70 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 8:06 PM Member since: Mar 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    breakdown

    by thechiefaz May 1, 2015 3:52 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    I plan on holding till 2031 so, i guess yes I am serious. They sell a commodity that the world can not do without, is in a state growing demand, and has a limited finite supply.
    Take today's closing price $8.40 - 1.80 in subordinated distributions for remainder of 2015= $6.60 . $6.60 -$1 in residual value in 2031 =$5.60, /16 years = that's an average ANNUAL distribution of .35 that 35 cents annually and a buyer today breaks even. while that would be disappointing, do you seriously believe they can't beat .09 a Quarter?
    With oil at avg 49 last Q they made .51 in the QUARTER, yes they were hedged but even without that they made .25 or $1.00 annually at $49 oil . oil now 60 and going nowhere but up
    Reasons not to hold?

    My money is where my conviction is. My first 100 was at $12,and yet i have a very nice profit ( yes i added very, very substantially in DEC and Jan sub 6.50). Looking forward to collecting 15 k in distributions this year,.
    With an averaged down cost basis of 7.21 without distributions, and my feeling we return to 100+ oil i feel very comfortable with my( i'll do the math for you) 6,000 shares .
    not to worry this is just a small part of a well balanced portfolio, as, Citi could be correct and we go to $20 oil for the next 16 years, he types sarcastically.
    Anyway, If that's the case, buy guns and ammo. Which, just in case, is also part of my portfolio

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Declared 64 cents...

    by keltus1952 Apr 30, 2015 7:28 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    ouch 9 thumbs down, didn't know there were that many people here.
    However you speak the truth, But it will have no impact on distribution for the next 2 quarters.
    With hedges they earned .518,and yes it would have been about .25 without, BUT distribution still would be .64, because of subordination. Which is what matters.
    Next 2 quarters will be similar, however it appears that oil will average way over the $49 price of last Q.
    Just for example. assuming 60 oil and similar production, unsubordinated and unhedged earnings might be .35 however distribution still be about .62 WITHOUT hedge but WITH subordination.
    Now fast forward to Q 1 2016 sub is gone, where is oil price? no one knows but say $55, dist. would be about .25/Q or 12 % yield still beats a cd.
    However if oil is 100, dist. is more likely .45/Q at that point,
    Appears to be very little downside risk here, unless you believe Citi call for $20 oil, then buy smith&wesson stock, not anything oil related

    Sentiment: Buy

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz May 1, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    So with oil probably averaging below $50 last quarter, trust managed to earn .518 with oil at those levels , had to add .122 to get to the guaranteed distribution as promised in creation of trust.
    IMHO that is dam good, i am personally glad hedges will be gone by the time subordination is gone in early 2016.
    Seems all working out just right , hedging oil price in dropping oil market is great, hedging oil price in rising market is bad, plain and simple. If oil is back north of 80 next year all longs will be happy hedges are gone.
    In the mean time enjoy the 30+%( for some who bought lower even higher) return till end of first Q next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DIVIDEND?

    by peacefulwarrior064 Apr 10, 2015 11:42 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    bump for my spot on "analyst" estimate lol, although i was somewhat light.

  • Reply to

    us rig count

    by thechiefaz May 1, 2015 2:28 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Almost 1,000 rigs off line since late last year peak of around 1,600 now the count is .....679. and yet we still import opec and south american oil. Logic?!?!

  • Reply to

    us rig count

    by thechiefaz May 1, 2015 2:28 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    OOPS Sorry, 200 miles away in the great state of Arizona, just filled up for ........$2.09

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz May 1, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    drops for 21 st straight week. lowest since 2010 . Tell me is oil demand worldwide greater today than 5 years ago? Oil prices gonna rebound and overshoot so far, people not in oil stocks will be screaming.
    Can you say $ 4 Kalifornia gas for summer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The charts say

    by thechiefaz Apr 30, 2015 2:40 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz May 1, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    texas and titus, good points and thanks for your thoughts and opinions.
    Anyone else have any contrary or positive CONSTRUCTIVE opinions or thoughts
    no cheerleaders or bashers , please.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz Apr 30, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Caveat: the following means nothing if oil does not cooperate .... coop means stable to slightly rising
    "W" bottom
    12/14 after div suspension sdrl = 14 ish mid Jan low 9 ish mid Feb revisit 14 area mid march test 9 ish lows.
    so thru test should be $14 again if it breaks 14 and holds on anything more than normal volume
    . Lookout.
    no resistance till 20 .
    What to do? If your new... standard is to wait for confirmation and hold once over 14 then buy. If your wrong and long like me, well , I doubled down at second visit to w bottom and will add again but not till over 14
    any chartist see something else?

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 29, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    you could be correct, but will most people get over the " I am not paying x(11,12,13,20) when two months ago i could have paid $9". . Also has upward movement started? 10 day, 50 day upward sloping, and 100 is basically flat, but if the late Jan and late march lows of 9 ish were a double bottom, then the chartist in me would say "all clear" over the low 14 level set in early Feb . But then again woulda coulda shoulda is always a problem, for me at least.
    caveat : I started my position @28 ,(so clearly i have been wrong) but with many many double downs, i am certainly happy with current direction and look forward to a new overshoot high in 2/3 years.
    Panic and fear work in both directions
    GL

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo and Citigroup both want to buy SDRL

    by ibc123 Apr 27, 2015 9:29 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 29, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    another question would be why was it a hold from 40 to 8.. I love the fact that they valued rigs over 15 y.o. at zero. Transocean and others have 35 y.o. rig still operating.

  • Reply to

    ANV Special Meeting

    by markedtofuture Apr 24, 2015 8:43 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 27, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    done

  • Reply to

    here it is from TDAmeritrade this morning:

    by tuanngnt Apr 27, 2015 7:58 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 27, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    and the result so far is up 2.5%, keep the baseless downgrades coming boys

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 27, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    putting you and your kind on abuse and ignore is the only way. goodbye

  • should be interesting close,

  • Reply to

    BANKRUPTCY IS IMMINENT

    by rredfox Apr 24, 2015 11:19 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 24, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    I would put you on ignore, but the comedy is priceless. And an intelligent response to what XRX does today not 20 years ago would not change what little mind you have

  • Reply to

    wth

    by thechiefaz Apr 22, 2015 4:01 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 22, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    several 1 million share blocks, guess we will see. post market all over the place on 1 share and 100 share trades ??? not sure what is going on, I count 3 million+ shares in last 3 minutes

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz Apr 22, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    was that in last 5 minutes, insane volume

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 21, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    you mean like last earnings when it dropped to $2.20 on 1/30 then hit $3.20 on 2/20 is that what your basing your call on??

  • Reply to

    Raymond James downgrade today

    by annualrunrate Apr 20, 2015 1:30 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Apr 20, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    I am generally not a conspiracy guy, but I am guessing they missed the move from 6 to 8 and want in. Oil seems to have bottomed and looks to be heading nowhere but up. Certainly seems suspicious to me.. some big blocks over 30 K shares also add to my feelings of shenanigans. as that block volume is fairly rare.
    If your holding till 2031 like me, it is of no concern. Only thing that matters for this trust is the future price of oil and how much is in the ground, and i can assure you no one working at Raymond James has any clue as to the answer to either of those issues.

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