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SandRidge Permian Trust Message Board

thechiefaz 119 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 11:22 AM Member since: Mar 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Brent vs WTI

    by thechiefaz Feb 27, 2015 10:38 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 27, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    I have so many pumpers and bashers on ignore and its hard to have any type of rational discussion.
    Anyway I don't even believe the amount "oversupply" is any justification for 55% cut in oil prices , just the traders of paper contracts using the hysteria you mention to drive down prices.
    It will balance out in time and i believe at much higher prices the way fracking has shut down and even non land base is curbing production at a swift rate.
    And as CEO said SDRL will be ready to pounce on weak hands when, not if things turn.
    BTW Fredricksen now owns a whopping 24 % of sdrl !!!!!!!!!

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz Feb 27, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    wow an amazing $14 spread(approx) between the two . something has to give. too lazy to see if this is a record gap but has to be close. not sure how anyone justifies the difference

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 19, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    why stop at 200 oil Mr Powers when we can go for 400 and $100+ sdrl muhahahaa
    He says as we go positive for the day

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 19, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    $10 oil = WW 3 ,soon to be followed by $200 oil

  • thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 19, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    You need a bigger font and more caps, couldn't hear what you were saying. See my "analysis" on how we get to negative $5 oil, using wood burning stoves in the trunks of our cars for power instead of oil
    I think there are more morons on my ignore list on this board than not.
    Don't mind honest negative commentary, actually welcome it as a long if it adds some valid point of view

  • Reply to

    January 2016 call option

    by hpsportsfanatic Feb 18, 2015 11:23 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    my bad you are correct, must have "fat fingered" my calculator.

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    June 1 put vol 2,00+ and Jan 2016 1 put 2,000 + vol looks like paired trade and also 1,300 of the June 1 call done, all 3 trades are over 25% of open interest and the June put is 75% of open interest. meaning these are new positions.
    not sure if anyone other than the trader who did these trades knows the position or what they are looking for, but it is certainly unusual in such a low price stock, which itself is cheaper than many options.

  • Reply to

    S/A article intrinsic value 4.10 target 10+

    by thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 3:01 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    At-least the guy did tons of work and laid out facts and scenarios both good and bad, unlike the nameless/ uncorroborated bash piece put out by the liberal commie rag Bloomberg yesterday.
    We all must make our own choices

  • http://seekingalpha.com/article/2927196-allied-nevada-gold-an-intrinsic-evaluation-reveals-hidden-alpha?auth_param=v85ln:1ae9lul:c372dfa263cea283380364d312a63326&uprof=46&dr=1

  • Reply to

    January 2016 call option

    by hpsportsfanatic Feb 18, 2015 11:23 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    at 54 can't take the same risks , i think very good risk reward for your age and what i would have done at 21 GL

  • Reply to

    January 2016 call option

    by hpsportsfanatic Feb 18, 2015 11:23 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 18, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    I'm long the 2017 15 calls but also short the 2017 25 calls, paid net $1.90 when sdrl was in 10's, same spread will cost about 2.30 now . gives a full year more , spread b/e around around 17.30 w/o comms. so currently risking $230ish to make up to $770 if over 25 in 2017. Personally i preferred the extra year and the profit cap of the 2017's over the 2016's solo. of course for that extra time max profit is locked at "only" 193%
    In general call/put ratio has been very bullish over the last several weeks, with a very low volume of put buying.
    so option players see more upside than down.

  • Based on the facts that
    1 While drunk last night I saw pigs fly and I have both a dog and cat living together in my house.
    2 Also with a worthless commodity like oil, I figure the majors , drillers ,pipeline operators and all will be happy to pay people to take this useless stuff off their hands at a mere loss of $50 a barrel.
    3 I see people driving cars with wood burning stoves in their trunks powering steam engines to get to work

    I put my "research" and "analysis" right up their with Gary schilling(Mr $10 oil) and I hope Bloomberg picks up on my story. Perhaps this will make Yahoo headlines later today.
    Full Disclosure : long sdrl stock and options.
    Have to continue my research on fire water, also contacting my publisher to see if my comedy writing career has hope.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RIG dividend to cut dividend 80%??

    by jaci1969 Feb 16, 2015 1:39 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 16, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    total div is now .60 vs $ 3, not .60/ quarter. its now .15 c quarter , that's how they get 80%

  • Reply to

    If you like jcp

    by thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 10:22 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    I guess we need to define safe. i would say 95% of Americans would consider 1 % CD's safe. When in fact , they are most destructive, and a sure-fire way of investing to go broke. With REAL inflation at 5 to 8% for the average american( food was up 19% last year) you only need a calculator to figure out how unsafe a CD really is. Live long enough and "safe" CD's will bankrupt anyone.
    So is an investment that the market places a 10 % yield on safe? as i said it's all relative.
    Not suggesting to mortgage the house on this, but risk reward looks good to me and of course for every buyer is a seller.

  • Reply to

    If you like jcp

    by thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 10:22 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    jcp is paying the actual coupon of 7 %, , while still a little high , only in terms of current environment.
    In 2007 when this was issued, treasury bonds where 7.5% !!!!. so they are paying less than U S treasury to borrow at this time.
    And T and VZ are paying 5.5% and 4.5 %,I would call these very very safe, so not really out of line at all
    For you youngens
    I remember getting 20 % on CD's!! in the 70's. It's all relative

  • Reply to

    If you like jcp

    by thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 10:22 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    not sure if your a bull or bear on JCP , but there is a slight safety advantage to the preferred issue. If you don't like JCP then do not buy JBN either. as my title said if you like jcp, give this a look. that's one of the main reasons for M B 's, to share info .
    Personally been in since 3/13 and 3 div payments (pays semi annually)received. Unless they go BK ( in which case equity goes first) i see no reason for them to stop payments. The bigger "risk" is that they recall it, instead of letting it run to 2097. Of course, if recalled it must be done at $25 with accrued interest.

  • thechiefaz by thechiefaz Feb 13, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    take a look at JBN (J C penny preferred), $25 par preferred stock currently around $18 paying almost 10%, ex div on 2/25

  • Reply to

    I'm in for the long term

    by mikeestewart46 Feb 9, 2015 10:52 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 9, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    total return is what is important, the way this is structured you can never" break even" on share price if you hold long term, that is the way it is planned with a high distribution fixed life( 2031 in this case) investment vehicle . Disregard purchase based cost and concentrate on total roi, programs like quicken and the old msn money help create a clearer picture of total return( or loss). which is the only thing that matters.

  • Reply to

    bought 15,000 shares at 9.37

    by hprach Jan 12, 2015 10:52 AM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 9, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    bought 368 million shares at 9.18, sold all at 14.23 or what ever high for today is

  • Reply to

    I just don't understand the hype..

    by paulpathikal Feb 6, 2015 2:17 PM
    thechiefaz thechiefaz Feb 6, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    oil fell over 60 % and whether oversupply is 1 , 2 or 5 % currently, none of those justifies a 60% drop on a supply and demand basis. The ease of shorting futures contracts with any real skin in the game is what drove oil down, as witnessed by 8% daily moves this week. That can NOT happen purely on supply and demand. Are you serious.
    if you have 100 of something one week and 105 next week for sale, do you expect to get 60% less for each?!?

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