Those like you who think they know it all have no way of finding out they don't.
And is really a big surprise why scientists have decided to look for intelligent life on other planets when the they have concluded there is none to be found here in your posts.
If I were short ESI, I would be covering every share as fast as possible, especially on this gift of a dip to slightly below $10. The latest short thesis that ESI would be another COCO has completely collapsed. Worries about ESI's balance sheet, etc are now put to rest. The Department of Education stuff re heightened cash monitoring and letter of credit was simply a knee jerk reaction the late SEC filings and these issues are now not a problem. Nursing and computer technology enrollments are going up, not down. The weak Drafting and Criminal Justice Programs are basically tiny now and we are lapping the bad numbers on an annual basis (so we will get improved year over year comparisons).
If you are short a stock that can go from $3 to $14 in three days, you are in the wrong short. Forget about what happened in getting to $3. That is old news and water well under the bridge now.
gf06, i can not tell you how refreshing it is to have someone post on this, or any chat board, that has some clue about what they are talking about. There are just so many uninformed idiots that post rehashed garbage. Thanks for your insights.
Wow. People post some junk here about pathetic Zacks but do not even say anything about the huge ESI upgrade today to aggressive buy.
Buy report on ESI had these key points...
1. Shares grossly oversold and valuation compelling.
2. Overhang from delay in filing recent financial statements is removed. Delisting threat removed.
3. DOE shutdown (ala COCO) is no long an issue.
4. Bank lines of credit are secure.
5. Balance sheet looks solid, even with the consolidation of the PEAKs Trust student loans.
6. Over the past 90 days earnings estimates have been rising for 2014 and 2015.
7. P/E is absurdly low at 3.
8. New student enrollments are ahead of estimate and solid growth being shown in core areas: Nursing and computer networking technology.
9. Worst of problems are behind the company and short story on company is now overplayed.
10. Massive short interest will cover, creating additional upward pressure on shares.
Blum has taken a big beating on his most recent ESI purchase. He played ESI on the long side once before (2006-2007) I think and made a boatload. This time he got smoked. Blum runs an investment partnership and if his clients want their money back, then he has to sell ESI shares. I think that the shorts have always felt that Blum would have to fold on his ESI long position. This then creates an overhang on the stock. But the overhang has been offset with new large buyers like Clifton Park, Point 72 (Steve Cohen), and now Barnstar. Blum will eventually be cleaned up and be out of ESI, but his stock position will be bought be others who see the current ESI share price/valuation as offering large upside potential.
I was looking to see where the share price was back in 2006-2010. I was stunned to see that the shares were $20 in 2006 and then rose to $115 in 2008. Then from $115 in 2008, shares fell to a low of $15 in 6 months (in early 2009). From that $15 level, shares then rose to $97 in early 2011 (2 years later). From $97, we are now at $8.50. CLF clearly has a history of extraordinary share price volatility, even before this whole Bloom Lake fiasco. I think that iron ore prices have also had periods of enormous ups and downs over those years. I have no idea what to make of this other than when the share price goes one way or the other, it goes huge.
So, then, what are the sum of the parts? Asia = $700 mill? US coal = $600 mill? Eastern Canada = $1 billion. Tax loss carry forward = $1.5 bill. US Iron Ore = $3bill? That adds to almost $7 billion. Debt is $3 billion, net of cash. That leaves $4 billion for shareholders. $25 per share or thereabouts?
Come on dude. Post something intelligent. You are just acting like a twerp.
ESI at $5 means a market cap of $100 million. After meeting its PEAKS obligations in 2014, the company will have $200 million in cash and +$100 million in real estate - not to mention a business that will be earning $+$60 million per year. You are smoking dope dude. The "going out of business" story on ESI is dead.
If they have buyers at $2 billion, that means they are selling $8 billion in assets as they appear on the books. $8 billion in assets worth only $2 billion means a $6 billion write down. Getting rid of $8 billion in assets is absolutely huge, especially when long term property plant and equipment is $11 billion. That would mean that everything would be sold except the US Iron Ore business with assets or around $2 billion.
If this is the plan - get rid of everything now except the US iron ore business, I suspect that management will sell that US business too. Why keep CLF as just a US only iron ore company? Sell the company to some big player who really wants to get into the US market. CLF is the dominant player and the profits are great there. Casa will want to get their money out. The more I think about it, the more I believe that we are going to see the complete dismantling of CLF. Banks are probably going to get the picture on this or be told directly about this by the company.
So what will the US business be worth? Revenues of $2.7 billion and cash gross margin of $908 million in 2013. Add in all those large tax losses available to a big buyer. I have no idea what to guess - $2 billion, $3 billion, $4 billion, $5 billion. A $ 6 billion tax loss carry forward could alone be worth $1-2 billion even before the value of the US operations. Off the back of an envelope, a reasonable US value with your above $2 billion assumption gets investors to well into the $20's for the company. Not bad with shares now at $8.50.
Freetz, you are cracking me up. Bought a pile of ESI today at $10.75. Am already up 6%. How is your short doing from $5. You are simply so out of your league. Like most short sellers, you were simply too embarrassed to show your face here while the shares went from $3.75 to $13 in three days. And you got nothing to say about the just released and long awaited 10K? Nothing? Zippo? Not one comment? What about the conference call? Did you even listen to it? I doubt it. You are basically zero added value to this board. If you would post something that had some factual support or intelligent thinking, then maybe people would pay attention to you.
ESI shares just ran in three days from $3.75 to as high as $14 early today. Now shares are $11.20 and they are going to go much higher. If you are unable to see through the short term changes in the company's valuation, I suggest you sell your stock. ESI needs long term holders to maximize the upward stock price move. Short term traders should just leave ESI to the long term players.
you are a complete idiot. Earnings estimates for ESI are rising for both 2014 and 2015 and 2014 EPS estimates are for on the order of $2.80 per share. Go short that, idiot.
I looked up CLF's asset base at 12/2008 and then the same at 12/2013.
on 12/2008...CLF had assets of $4.1 billion, including $1.21 bill in Asia Pacific Ore, $773 in North American coal, North American iron ore of $1.8 bill.
on 12/2013...CLF had assets of $13.1 billion, an increase of $7 billion from 2008 levels. Of the $13.1 billion, Asia Pacific iron ore was $1.0 billion (no increase from 2008), US iron ore was $1.67 billion, Eastern Canada was $7.9 billion, and North America Coal was $1.8 billion.
So how does a $6 billion write down fit in with these numbers? Hard assets increased from $4.1 billion to $13.1 billion, a $7 billion increase, from 2008 to 2014. And now the company writes off $6 billion of that $7 billion increase. Asia Pacific assets did not even go up during that time. The north American assets are probably totally solid because that is all iron or pellet business sold to US customers.
It is hard to imagine that CLF wrote down 85% of all the asset increase since 2008. Surely, the asset values they added since 2008 have to be worth more than 15 cents on the dollar. If the Asia Pac ore business is for sale and the numbers mentioned in the press were $800 million, that would only be a $200 million hit to asset values, leaving the remaining $5.8 billion for Eastern Canada and North American coal. Looks to me like they are writing that stuff down to zero in some cases. Bloom Lake must be taking a huge write down. Yet the operations in these areas have substantial mineral reserves. They must be worth something more than zero, but maybe not. I am clearly not an expert in this area. Anyone have any thoughts.
I would also say that I do not think that CLF "marked up" its existing 2008 iron ore assets when ore prices went through the roof, so why mark them down now. The stuff that CLF bought when iron ore prices were much higher are clearly due to take a hit, but ore prices are not down so much that assets should be written to zero?
I wonder who on the NYSE is responsible for making an orderly market in ESI? The share price decline was far from orderly and the price rebound the same. Today's price action is just more of the same. I am not sure why ESI is even listed on the NYSE. What is the benefit? Maybe it is like the worst of two evils: the NYSE or the NASDAQ.
I suspect that the run up in ESI shares from $3.75 has attracted too many short term traders that have no interest in the company other than a vehicle to execute an immediate short squeeze. When it looks like the short squeeze has run its course after a few days, these traders move on to the next target. It is part of investing that is extremely frustrating, but without some of this, one never gets the super highs and lows at which to buy or sell a core position.
I still think that anyone short ESI should look at below $10 as a total gift to close a short position. I do not think that we are going to see much below $10 again, now that the financial statements are all cleared up. Bankruptcy and Dept of Education shutdown of ESI are off the table as far as I see it.
Just bought some shares today at $10.75, down from +$13 just a couple hours ago. I think that the short sellers are looking to get out of dodge and this quick drop is as good a chance as they will get.
dude, you are acting like a complete moron. The ESI 10K comes out after months of waiting, all the while you posting endlessly negative #$%$ about ESI. So now that the 10K came out, didn't you even read the thing? All you did was to disappear from the chat room while ESI shares went for $3.75 to $14, a quadruple in just a few days.
So, what are the negative and the positive things that you can comment on regarding the 10K and the ESI conference call? I suspect that you have absolutely nothing to comment on as you didn't read the 10K and didn't listen in on the conference call. That makes you a complete village idiot.
This has the makings of a short squeeze of biblical proportions. Additional 5 million shares shorted two weeks ago below $5. Stock now at $13 and change and rising. Short interest at some massive level in relation to the float. Core shareholders not selling at all. New buyers piling in huge. ESI's business is solid and its leading education programs are seeing student enrollment growth.