I tool a quick look at SB (Safe Bulkers) as you suggested. I will look at MSN later. Regrading SB, I find it a difficult situation to assess. The problems I have with figuring this one out are 1) the company is based in Greece, 2) management is all Greek, 3) the company pays no taxes, 4) predicting dry bulk cargo rates are tough and I have ZERO visibility into what the rates are doing and why (with gold re NEM, I at least see the pricing of gold and make some judgments), 5) the company's earnings track record is terrible (down earnings every year for 6 straight years), 6) the company has a large amount of debt ($466 million), 7) shares do not trade at all (the trading volume is tiny) and 8) how to value this company is a mystery to me (value it on a price per ship basis, or a p/e basis, or by cash flow?).
On the other hand, SB did generate over $2 in eps in each of 2008 and 2009. If this company could show some aptitude towards getting back to that type of eps number, the shares will go much higher in my opinion. The dividend yield looks good, but with earnings falling, I am wondering how safe the dividend is. The dividend is not large compared to the operating cash flow, but SB also spends a ton of money each year on capital expenditures (+$100 million). I think that I am leaving this one alone.
Regarding shipping, I am more interested in the market for shipping refrigerated and semi-refrigerated natural gas from the United States to Europe. Gas in Europe is very expensive and it is cheap here. But shipping it is very difficult. There is a ton of money to be made by any company with expertise in operating a fleet of these types of ships. The only public company I know that does this is Navigator Holdings (NVGIF). Shares hardly ever trade, but I am expecting a public offering soon as the company builds out its fleet. This is going to be a hot area. Billionaire Wilbur Ross recently took a large stake in the company.
Some posters recently asked for my next stock pick. I immediately posted AAPL as a long at $421 (my buy price that very day) with a detailed explanation. The market has since taken a bit of a dive and AAPL shares stand at $444. As such, the long call is up 5% in a down tape.
I am now looking at Newmont Mining (NEM) and have taken a long position at $31.68 and bought more today at $31.88. Newmont shares are down hard from a high of +$70. Shares in the past couple of months have fallen from $42. The decline in the price of gold has hurt the shares. I am not a commodity expert and have no clue where the price of gold is going. However, NEM shares look like an reasonable bet here. The current quarterly dividend is $0.35/share, which translates into a +4.4% dividend yield, well above the market's low 2% yield. With gold prices down, NEM may face some dividend pressure although the current dividend is well covered by the current level of earnings. There are no guarantees on NEW's dividend payout, but I think that the market has priced much of the negative. Everyone hates gold. If that is the case, then I want to look at it as a long. When NEM shares move, they go up real fast, which is unusual for a recovery type stock situation. Most recovery stocks usually have to form long bases and then slowly move up against the grain, finally building some momentum. Newmont does not strike me as such and if the shares move, they could go up $12 quickly. Given the commodity nature of NEM's business, I would use a reasonable stop loss to protect oneself. I would stop out in the low $30's and re-evaluate. If NEM shares improve from here, a move back to $44 ($12 gain) plus a $1.40 dividend translates to a $45.50 target, or a 42% gain. I measure this against a potential loss of 8% getting stopped out. This type of investment is not for everybody. I like the fact that it seems decoupled from the overall market.
less, unfortunately you never bothered posting that you were long ESI as far as I can tell or have seen, so post whatever you would like regarding your gains or losses. It is of no consequence to anyone on the board. If you made a bunch of money on your ESI long, good for you. I have no clue why you would ever post detailed info on your "sale" and "profits" but not post anything about your entry position. Next time, post your entry like I did when I went long at $11.80.
mizz, you deserve to lose all your money. you posted garbage on this message board about ESI and trash talked the company without any reasonable basis. As such, you attempted to destroy value in my long position and those of other investors. Your objectives were to cause me financial harm. If your posts had been fair and objective, I would have a different opinion towards your loss. I completely respect an honest opinion based on sound analysis that may differ from mine. I am open and accept that type of exchange. But in your case, your posts were pathetic, misleading and manipulative. I attempted to set you straight, but you would not listen to reason. You attempt to make me lose money was met with your own demise and I could not be happier for your loss. This may sound harsh to some, but I see no need for sympathy in this case.
Are these short seller dopes mz201 and freetz for real? They are gloating because ESI shares are down today. Well, ESI shares have only just run from $12 to $27 in a couple of weeks. That is only a gain of 110%. And now there are all excited because ESI shares drop to $25.50 today. I just bought some stock today for a day trade at $25.50. We will see what happens. I am long of course a pile of stock from $11.80. Can't remember the last time I bought a stock and then had it go up 140% in a couple of months.
These short sellers are pathetic. They just don't get it. The stock runs $15 straight up. It backs off $2 and they think that it is the start of some massive collapse and they start celebrating. Instead, they should realize that the small decline is just part of an orderly pullback in a huge upward move. I haven't even finished typing this post and am already up nicely on my trade.
you are making yourself look like a total buffoon. Go post your trash elsewhere. Well, I guess if some hedge fund who is short ESI is paying you to post your junk here, at least you are get paid something for your efforts.
where are you hearing these "rumors" that graduating classes are being hired even before graduation? Can you provide any info where you are hearing this?
I am amazed that the shorts simply never bother to cover ANY shares at all. None! They must have started to believe their own #$%$ on ESI. They have pounded on it so relentlessly that they got every analyst to downgrade the shares in the past couple of years. They must have thought that the business would never get better. Now they are in a really tough spot. Everyone is watching the short interest and they are seeing that no one has covered. That means the short squeeze pros are going to continue to look to put pressure on the short sellers. I think that the short sellers just got too spoiled (like brats) with the ESI positions. They manipulated the stock rice and the news flow on ESI. They probably thought that they were kings of the universe when it came to ESI. Now things are going the other way. It will be interesting. It will be interesting to see what the shorts will do. I suspect that the shorts will probably attempt to put out some derogatory news regarding ESI in an attempt to keep the stock from going up a ton more, but we will see.
Yesterday's end of day price action and today's up move is a clear sign. Short sellers attempted to manipulate the ESI price downward in a sharp end of day drop yesterday. They are desperate to cover. I was a bit confused by the decline. There was no reason for it. So what is going on today? Another massive increase in stock price (+$3) on a mere 580,000 shares. That shows everyone what is really going on here. Well, that 580,000 shares traded today so far is probably triple counted (one part buyer, one part seller , one part middleman). So ESI trades less than 200,000 real shares and the stock goes up $3. And of that 200,000 in real shares, how much of that is short covering? Only part of it. And there are 8 million more shares to be covered! Yowza.
I would think that many people are asking themselves what they should do with ESI now that shares have jumped. IF you are short, should you cover? If you are long should you sell for a gain or hold. If you have not bought the shares yet, should you buy?
In my opinion, ESI remains a very strong buy. If I was short I would cover ASAP. If you are long already, let your winner run, even if it backs off a bit in the short term. Do not try to day trade or swing trade your huge gain of the past month. If you are not long, buy ESI shares on any even modest weakness.
1. ESI shares are down from $130 to $25. Earnings are for $4 in 2013 and going to get even better than that.
2. Shares are ridiculously undervalued by ALL measures.
3. Upside in the shares ranks among the best in the current stock market. What stock do you own at the present time that can triple in the next year?
4. Shorts interest is huge and upward move in the stock has them all looking to exit. +8 million shares need to be bought, to cover the short interest. Shorts will be competing with other true longs to buy shares as the stock price rises. Shorts are not going to get any stock from the core long term holders. These holders have held their positions all the way down and are not going to sell now that the stock price and the fundamentals are on the rise. That means all incremental buying must be done from retail investors. Now talk about having a hard time covering. In other words, there are no large blocks of stock to be bought to allow a short to cover in one fell swoop. Each short covering exercise is going to be incredibly painful and lengthy for the shorts.
5. ESI fundamentals are improving.
6. Upward price action in the shares is attracting attention, bring more traders, real buyers, and short squeeze players to the table. Shorts are feeling serious pressure as the buy interest is building rapidly.
My advice: DO NOT SELL. BUY MORE. COVER IF SHORT.
supr, I believe that on AAPL one has to be "in early" on an investment several months before the new product onslaught comes in 2013. The new products will start coming out for the back to school and then Christmas season. That means August, Sept, Oct are critical product introduction months. If they choose to get involved on the long side, investors should be invested no later than late June. One never knows when the buzz will start. I chose to buy yesterday because for me $421 was just too good a price and more than compensated me for buying just a tad earlier than I normally would.
If AAPL dips into the $420's, buy and hold!
follow-on from my prior post...
9. AAPL's valuation is so ridiculously low. It trades below the valuation of not only every technology company, but almost every company in the market.
10. Stock buyback will provide awesome support for the shares. $50 billion to be bought. That is a ton of stock.
11. Great dividend. 3% something.
12. AAPL sells product systems - integrated products: laptops, destops, iPods, iPhones, iPads, etc - that work together wonderfully and are masterfully designed. Samsung sells a smart phone (with someone else's operating system) and they sell some stand alone flat screen tv's.
I bought a pile of AAPL shares today at a stunning price of $421. I could not believe that the market gave me this opportunity. Shares dropped 10% in two days for some baloney reasons (David Tepper's idiotic comments and some moronic analyst saying that AAPL shares were going to $240. With AAPL shares now at $437, I am already up $17, or over 4%. Not selling these shares either. See you well north of $600 when AAPL starts rolling out its back-to-school and Christmas new products!!!!!
supr asked me if I had any other stock picks right now. It is really tough because so many stocks are already through the roof and way too expensive. However, I think that AAPL is a good long here.
1. Universally hated by professional investors.
2. Universally loved by people who use AAPL products (this is the more important group versus professional investors).
3. APPL products remain the best. Highest quality, best packaging, best for seemless interconnection, best software.
4. Samsung is just copying APPL and using Google's free Android op system. This approach has serious issues and Samsung does not control the op system.
5. AAPL can not serve the whole smartphone market. It is just not possible. Can you imagine what AAPL would have to do if it controlled 75% of the smartphone market now! I think the scope of that amount of product/business is simply beyond what the company could ever manufacture.
6. Samsung Galaxy 5 is a delayed product. Samsung totally blew it by missing the 2012 Christmas selling season. So they introduce the Galaxy 5 in the early Spring, the worst buying period for any consumer product. Terrible. AAPL would never do anything so stupid. And AAPL will not introduce new products now in this "dead period".
7. Watch for a massive new product onslaught from AAPL later this year with the back-to-school and Christmas selling season as the focus. Anyone thinking that AAPL has rolled over for Samsung just because came out with the late Galaxy 5 and AAPL has no products coming out in the dead Spring period is in for a big surprise. Samsung will not be able to respond in kind. AAPL's new product efforts are among the tightest secrets in the tech world. Wall Street has no clue what is coming.
8. Furthermore, CEO Cook said that 2014 will also be a huge year for new product introductions at AAPL. The lines out the AAPL stores are going to be miles long.
9. Valuation on the shares is shocking it is so low.
I have not posted recently as there has been no significant news other than the following...
1. ESI beats its earnings estimates. So what. When does ESI ever not beat the estimates. I think in the last 10 years, they have missed only one quarter. And when they beat the estimates, they beat by a good margin.
2. ESI enrollment figures are stabilizing and should get better. This is the killer for the shorts and the fuel for the longs. New student enrollments means more revenues. More revenues, combined with $50 million in cost reductions, means earnings should be better than expected (as always).
3. Obama submitted student loan forgiveness bill for those that pay their loans for 10 consecutive years. This is brilliant. Provides a strong incentive for students to stay current on their loans. This program is in effect another strong incentive for student education.
4. Recent insider trading cases and investigations into politicians leaking to Wall Street/hedge funds information about the recent medicare law changes before they were made public has Washington DC politico running scared. They have all been trading on inside information for decades and now this insidious and deceitful practice is over. The education stocks have suffered mightily from insider trading with the politicians and the Department of Education staff being the ringleaders. These parasites fed the hedge funds information regarding the education regs and were even so brazen to have Eisman of Frontpoint Partners (a Morgan Stanley hedge fund) speak at a congressional hearing on the education sector. Eisman was short the education stocks and had the politicians in his back pocket (probably through kickbacks and political donations). Eisman firm was indicted for one of the worst and most blatant cases of insider trading and was shut down by the SEC and Morgan Stanley. Eisman was terminated but avoided jail time somehow. Some of Esiman's associates went to jail.
Warren Buffett blew town early in his career because he quickly saw the insanity of Wall Street. Who needs it. Even back then when he did not have the type of technology available that we know possess, he still did not want to have anything to do with this #$%$. The only play is to buy and hold. Day trading and swing trading is a joke. No one makes any money in that strategy except the brokers. Looking at APPL go up and down $30 in rapid fire is an exercise in futility. Either you like the company and want to own it for a reasonable amount of time so that the fundamentals can work in your favor, or you don't want to own it. 99% of what everyone is looking at is simply noise.
I don't get it. APPL shares go into the tank based on what Tepper says? Tepper said he had no clue what was going on at APPL on the CNBC show. Said he is not close to the situation and that his analyst makes all the calls on the stock. Also said he owns the stock and bought more recently (obviously it was the analysts call to buy the shares). He makes some comment about APPL and their products, somewhat #$%$ and moaning about the new product pipeline, which he knows nothing about. He then says some #$%$ about evolutionary and revolutionary new products and makes some snide comment how APPL should have a big screen iPhone. But APPL just had a huge earnings conference call and they spoke in detail about how they have a huge slate of new products coming out later in 2013 and throughout 2014. This product introduction timing is perfect for APPL and will capture the back-to-school and Christmas selling seasons. People don't even remember how Samsung totally screwed up with their recent Galaxy product introduction. They totally missed the 2012 Christmas selling season because of product delays. So their product comes out in the totally dead Winter/Spring season. What a fiasco. By the time the Fall rolls around, Smasungs new phone will be like a piece of old dead wood. In the meantime, APPL's iPhone 5 swept the deck clean in the 2012 Christmas selling season due to the Samsung product introduction screw-up. And who cares if APPL doesn't introduce a new product in the past few months. It is the worst time for new product introductions. Just because Samsung comes out with their delayed iPhone rip-off recently, everyone has to get all worked up like APPL has nothing new. What a joke. Time to back up the truck and buy a ton of AAPL shares.
never seen you on this chat board before. you were not here at $12. so i suspect that you are full of crap. Nonetheless, I am long at $11.80 and posted here to that effect back when shares were at that price. ESI shares are grossly undervalued and going alot higher.
You are totally incorrect. No shares of ESI have been covered. The short interest in ESI remains massive and can not be covered. Shorts are trapped. of 23 million shares outstanding, 17 million are held by long term holders who are not selling.
The shorts need to cover over 8 million shares and everyone knows it. Who knows, maybe the politicians are now going long the education stocks because they realize that the game is changed, because they no longer have a winning hand on the short side, and because the short sellers were idiots not to cover (as they started to believe their own #$%$ that the politicians were going to drive every company to zero). There has been no company that has fared worse than ESI, but then there is no company that has performed so well over the past decade. ESI's record of achievement is unmatched in the industry. ESI has repurchased huge quantities of stock, holds massive real estate ($400 million), have no debt, has cleaned up the private student loan obligations, always beat the earnings estimates, are consistently profitable, and operate everywhere. The size of the ESI short position is staggering, the largest on a percentage basis on the NYSE by a huge margin. Trading volume in the shares is tiny and covering +8 million is not going to be easy. Sharks are in the water and the short sellers know it. Also, look at that huge new holder of ESI shares that just bought a massive 2.3 million shares (yep, 2.3 MILLION!!!), or 10% of the company in the fast few months. Clifton Park Capital Management LLC was the buyer and are now the third largest shareholder. Guess where Clifton Park Capital is based? Any guesses? Wilmington, Delaware - a stone's throw from Washington, DC. That tells you something right there!!!! Clifton Park has got the inside skinny and the shorts are toast. ESI to earn well north of $4 per share and next year could be a huge jump based on reduced costs, improved enrollments, and higher revenues and margins. Who knows where ESI shares could trade.? $40 is a no brainer. Question is $60-$70 in the cards for 2013? I am already up 70% and I am no where near thinking about selling.
I bought ESI shares at $11.80 and posted here at length to that effect. The short game on ESI is over. The short seller hedge funds and insider trading politicians are running for the hills but can not get out of the way. The politicians have been trading shorting ESI based on insider information and contributions for the short selling hedge funds (like that #$%$ bag Eisman - whose hedge fund was convicted of insider trading - and the inside trader thief Chanos). The laws have changed on insider trading by politicians and when it comes out that they have been shorting ESI in front of inside political information (and for taking political contributions from short selling hedge funds as part of the shakedown of the education stocks), all hell will break lose, particularly among the democrats who are knee deep in this scam. Recent aggressive SEC action has raised the stocks hugely. Which politician want to be the first to be investigated for and convicted of insider trading? The stakes are huge - ie complete humiliation, SEC penalties to the tune of 3 times the gains, jail time, disbarment, loss of office, and so on. The politicians are running for cover and word had been passed to Obama and the Department of Education. Time to cover your tracks and cease the unwarranted Salem Witch Hunt. The only way to cover their tracks is to back off, go into hiding, put through legislation that is favorable for the education sector, and discontinue all correspondence and activities with the manipulating short selling hedge funds. The game is over on the short side. But the shorts made a critical error. They did not cover their short positions. They failed to see the winds of change with the SEC insider trading rules as they now apply to politicians. There is no way any politician is going down the tubes without the associated hedge funds going too. The politicians have no teeth left and are in a spot so dangerous that they dare not sneeze for fear.