Yes. False alarm. But still many problems and issues with the person themself and how the CDC handled it - they call CCL after it left port and informed them. CCL medical staff imposed quarantine. They missed 2 ports of call and gave passengers a $200.00 rebate each. They also offered 50% off future cruises.
Now, this was pretty much all based on fear after a lab tech deviated from the honor code (a male by the reports I got rather than a female as some posters here have written).
So CCL goes up on relief for a few days. Then what? Any Ebola at all, anywhere outside its area of origin, hurts revenue. Are CCL's value metrics so very compelling to justify buying a company with such revenue headwinds?
They just self-quarantined. It just happened:
I wonder why they even went.
It is my best guess that the Dallas cluster is all we are going to get for now - no one on Frontier Airlines flight for example. We may get another one or two clusters (rumors all over the place now), but if we learn from the Dallas mistakes they can be quickly contained.
I am positively surprised that the ambulance crew that transported Duncan hasn't tested positive - at least they haven't told us anything about that.
But until the 21 days is up it is all just a guess.
I am thinking you are right. I read months back that margin was at very high levels, and likely playing distribution payout spreads.
ALL time low - going back to as far as my chart stretches for PGH. XOP down again today as well.
Great buy IF oil were to stabilize. IF.
Saudis have the power to regulate supply so they do matter. Oil is an oligopoly and they are the big producer. Russia and USA big too but they do not have the flexibility or (for USA) the control.
Great analysis to start the discussion - thanks. Oil could go below that level for awhile, due to Saudi price war. But but but - that itself would be a great long term buy set-up.
It cannot be discounted because no one knows if/how/when Ebola will be contained. Hopefully, the Dallas cluster is all the USA gets but each new case causes the odds to shift.
Odds are more infected patients in Dallas. Odds are also probably more likely than not of new index patients in other USA cities. Then Europe, then Asia, etc.
How long until it is fully contained? 3 months at the very earliest? A year maybe.
Unless USA wants to continue to see the economy suffer with Ebola worries, the Administration better promise something big - start with a 100 Billion commitment and indicate more is available upon need.
We will see if Obama can do something flexible with his tenure.
I have been looking into HLSS, as the income stream would be attractive if not being amortized. They are COMPLETELY dependent on Ocwen (OCN) which services their entire portfolio of "MSRs" (mortgage servicing rights) for a 12% cut. HLSS buys MSRs and OCN does the work and HLSS gets a return. I cannot figure out yet how, when, why and to what degree the MSRs will degrade as the mortgages are extinguished by pay-off or foreclosure. That is key I think. Again, I am just beginning and hope to find out more. Here is from annual report 2013:
We have entered into the Subservicing Agreement wit
h Ocwen pursuant to which we may engage Ocwen to ac
t as the subservicer of pools
of residential mortgage loans underlying the mortga
ge servicing rights that we acquire. The specific t
erms of the subservicing arrangement with
respect to each pool of mortgage loans, including t
he mortgage loans underlying the Acquired Mortgage
Servicing Rights purchased by us
pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, are (and may be
in the future) documented pursuant to separate sub
servicing supplements to the
Subservicing Agreement having a six year term.
We have entered into separate subservicing suppleme
nts to the Subservicing Agreement with Ocwen pursua
nt to which Ocwen has agreed
to act as subservicer of the mortgage loans underly
ing the Acquired Mortgage Servicing Rights on the t
erms described below effective upon the
transfer of the Acquired Mortgage Servicing Rights
We pay Ocwen a monthly base fee pursuant to the sub
servicing supplement relating to the Acquired Mortg
age Servicing Rights transferred
to us pursuant to the Purchase Agreement equal to 1
2% of the servicing fees collected in any given mon
th. The monthly base fee payable to
Ocwen is expressed as a percentage of the servicing
fees actually collected in any given month which v
aries from month to month based on the
level of collections of principal and interest for
the mortgage loans serviced. In a
I saw your post when I looked here last week. CCL is obviously falling for the very concerns you noted. I am watching the Texas Ebola situation like a hawk and applaud your prediction. My hope is that no one else of the 100 people being monitored actually gets infected. That is probably too much to hope for. I have the 21 day waiting period on my calendar and won't be buying any stocks (except LAKE etc.) until then.
GL to all. We may need it.
It feels just like the fall of 2008. Ah, good times for those that like character building experiences. Every day, down. Every day.
I agree the timing is really bad - straight into the teeth of an oil price decline. They have not treated the unitholders well with this.