First of all the idea of "support" and "resistence" is about 99% bs. You can site them all day but they will never work nor have they worked historically. Second, no one listens to "fools" on a yahoo board. I made my move. You make yours. If your 10% market cut doesnt happen then perhaps you should re-evaluate your arrogance.
I meant 3 years... sorry was thinking of another company. Still, if you look at the BMNM chart it should scare you to death.
Not trying to scare you, but ARR management is probably the most corrupt and least reliable of anyone in the REIT space. Recall, those were the guys that IPOed BMNM and they sunk it in about 1 year leaving their investors with nothing.
I dont plan to stay long enough to really care. My shares are already long. If i were planning on staying, i would vote NO in caps and all. In fact, I think the rules of hiding compensation and other things by making oneself external need to be abolished.
Actually you're still at break even as of today. Recall you did not get the dividend. Plus you predicted $14 and we are no where near that nor will it happen this year.
Please stop posting spam using several different names. Be a man and stick with one ID. If you dont then I guarantee you that no one is even seeing your posts because chances are you are on everyones ignore list. And now you are on mine.
Your posting history is historical. Thanks for the laughs... and welcome to the ignore list.
I really dont get all the friction here. All of us have made bad calls in the past and each of us has made good ones. The one thing about Jonk that I like is he uses analytic data relating to business and future conditions. In a lot of way I have agreed with him in the past. You tend to trade based on trends which is also ok. I do it all the time. In fact I traded into DPS just a few weeks ago when it slumped under $43. I collected a divy and sold at near $46 for a gain of almost $60k.
But there is a very different investment strategy between swing trades and long investing. This is where Jonk is right and things are now, finally turning our way numerically. We may not be able to predict share price (the market does not always follow business logic and sometimes people just want to swing trade), but we have been able to predict the business side fairly accurately. I dont anyone will be able to argue that NLY is by far the least risky mREIT out there not just from history, but also from current result which have verified the statement. You can see from NLYs stable and now increasing spread, and the fact that they make a majority of their money from actual spreads, that they are the least risky. This opens the door to long term investing and allows someone like me, who runs a small investment firm to say, ok im going to plop down $2.5m into NLY (something I would never do with AGNC or other mREITs) and I have enough confidence in them that I can hold it long and use hedges as needed rather than swing trade in and out.
My result is a return of over 20% on NLY (as of January) not including the upcoming div and the fact that the PPS has climbed since I did my taxes. Very differing strategies here and each has an advantage. The advantage I have now, over the DPS swing trade I made earlier, is that I now have favorable tax treatment over a big investment. This is a big deal if you run the numbers.
Which is fine. Some of them make good points. I again point out that once you make your point, you don't need to continually create new threads to state your point over and over. The benefit of forums is to gather contrasting viewpoints of information just in case you missed something yourself and to ask specific questions for advise. Going on a boards and proclaiming AGNC is better than NLY because it performed better in a cherry picked time frame is immature even if it is true. Anyone can cherry pick a few years where one stock is better than the other. A argument of history needs to be much longer than a couple of years and needs to take into account full history to be valid and this should be obvious to anyone. Further, NLY has been greatly profitable and has outperformed the market so again, its not like they are claiming that NLY is bad (though some have) but rather it is not as good as say, AGNC. I wont even mention ARR because they are clearly the worst mREIT on the market given who their executives are (old BMNM executive that burned that company to the ground). This is why I say their cheerleading is fishy.
My opinion is to stay civil. Make your point. Ask questions. Dont repeat yourself in new threads but rather help others who post threads by commenting with your opinion and give details. You don't need to cheer-lead because, once again, its pointless. You are not going to influence the market using yahoo forums where your name and performance cannot be substantiated nor trusted but you can influence with good arguments. For example, I always point out that NLY had a lower risk factor than AGNC for a variety of reasons such as previous leverage levels, fed actions relating to leverage, and history of success which is why I had more confidence in them. It doesnt mean that AGNC is a bad company, nor that NLY will outperform but it does mean that investors need to look at risk vs reward and look ahead not behind.
I dunno. Ive had my bouts with some of them in the past and they dont really sound like an options teams. They are definitely cheerleaders and I really dont understand why they keep saying the same thing over and over... I mean I sometimes post on stocks I am interested in and do comparisons but I never start more than 1 thread to say what I need to. They keep posting new threads regularly which is very fishy. then again whats the point? Does anyone really think that people invest based on yahoo forum recommendations? Only newbies with very little money to use thus if they are what you say, they are wasting their time. i really dont think so, I think they are just overzealous lol.
I would have never paid more than 10% discount to book and $16.40 was above book at the time. On my broker page my average is actually $15.56 but I did pick up 50k in nov at around $14 so that averaged down a bit. The options covered 150k shares. Im not sure its exactly $500k but we can calculate... I was just estimating in my head.
1500 options, took a while to move (several different closes), ended up selling barely above money but happy I did now that price has climbed. I made anywhere from $1.50 to $2 on those (need to check 1099). Lets just say $1.75 x 150k or about $250k. Divs collected have between $75k and $90k depending on what my position was. I did not qualify for the march 2012 div, so thats 3 divs and one coming up (will hold through it to turn long on the old 150k shares. Lets just say I average about $80k a quarter, thats $80x4 = $320k. The old shares were a little above current price but not by much. Lets call it 30 cents or $45k. We get $250+$320-$45 = $525... give or take. Seems about right.
Remember when i was asking about option strats? Ended up going all puts cause nothing else made sense. Add another buck and a half. About 200k shares give or take (due to timing).
No thanks. I dont want to go long on a company that relies 50% on luck for income and the current market conditions are not conducive to taking a new long position on a agency mREIT. I will ride out NLY, take my $500k or so gain since last year, and call it a success. I would have made more from AGNC, but I didnt like the risk profile. Risk vs Reward. Grats on your gain in AGNC but honestly I would never sunk $2.5m into them at any time so I didnt lose anything.
When you issue secondaries, you also have to consider broker commissions on top of worrying about book. So lets just assume that the book is now $15.50. Just to break even they would need to sell secondaries at about $15.75. This however would add nothing to the company. On top of that, you usually offer secondaries at below current value to entice investors. NLY, unlike others, has a long history of only only issuing accretive secondaries. This is not so for other mREITs who issue whenever they can to increase their own salary and bonuses. Dont expect NLY to issue secondaries unless price climbs to $16.50ish. They can then issue them at $16.
Thats not how it works. NLY has never, as long as I remember, ever issued stock at below book or even at book. So long as the PPS hovers below book, there will be no spo.
No one reacts to seeking alpha... thats an old wives tale. You will note that the moving average is actually bullish since Jan. You cant expect it to just go in one direction.
Have you guys actually received a single subsriber with all the spam you issued the last 4 years? I dont think you got anyone to subscribe so why do you keep spamming?