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Microchip Technology Inc. Message Board

thejumpingsheep 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2014 8:47 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2003
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  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 9, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Old post but I figured I would comment anyway. Resale housing is low. Number of sales has been declining due to very low inventory and extremely high prices. I assume LL is much more tied to real estate than HD and others who are not as specialized in renovations. I dont think LL has major contracts with builders since they can bypass middle men entirely thus new home starts do not help LL.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 9, 2014 8:34 PM Flag

    Any fundamental reason why this should stay above 20 p/e? ive only shopped there once for some laminate and that was 3 years ago. Since then I renovated 3 condos and an office and found that Home Depot was cheaper for both laminate and wood flooring. Of course I get installation elsewhere. Then there is the anemic realty market that is going nowhere due to lack of inventory and high prices.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    You do understand that for $18 to happen again you would need 3 things.

    #1 complete negative market sentiment towards mREITs which did actually happen mid last year. The problem with sentiment however is that it is short lived and unpredictable and completely unreliable. If you invest based on sentiment alone then you should quit now and open a pizza parlor.

    #2 Almost overnight interest rate increase to about 6%. Recall last year we had an overnight increase from low 3% to 4.5% when the feds finally stated they would start to taper. It was investors that pushed the rate up and now it has fallen back to low 4's despite further fed tapering... meaning that 4% is the real actual market rate. To see it jump to 6% overnight would mean that our economy is so strong and people are buying houses and such so fast that we cannot keep up so we need to slow them down instantly. This isn't happening right now. Real estate is anemic.

    #3 Margins must be shrinking at the same time as all of the above. But margins are already weak... they really cannot get much worse. It can happen but right now it does not seem likely.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    S&P did but the broad market did not. AGNC is up about 12% and the DOW is up about 14% (taking divs into account). Shrug, not a big deal. S&P did better but their P/E is above historic average. Which means it will eventually come down unless earnings grow very very fast while the S&P remains flat. But chances are we are heading into a recession soon so flip a coin, buckle up and take a side.

  • Reply to

    Going back $22

    by shoathai Jun 26, 2014 11:11 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    What where you expecting? Its an mREIT lol. Dividends will always fluctuate wildly as will BV. Bottom line however is what you collected along the way. In general, mREITs that survive the long haul will double your investment every 8-10 years. Not bad compared to the general market and that assumes no reinvestment of any kind. If you reinvest, then the number will be higher on average however I dont recommend blind reinvestment. I like to hoard cash and deploy manually.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    And before that it was going up for several years. So what? In the meantime the investors have enjoyed a 12%-20% yield per year. When price goes back up, as it always does eventually, those investors will have made out like bandits doubling their investment every 6-8 years without even reinvesting any of it.

  • Reply to

    The rise in the 10-year

    by owens132000 Jul 2, 2014 9:52 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I can see BV going up by why do you feel that income is increasing? I have not seen any indication that margins have improved much.. then again I have not been monitoring all that closely. Loss going forward is a good thing because it lets them keep capital for investment. It does not really hurt investors very much in the long run.

  • Reply to

    Easy money

    by fred_red_oak Jun 30, 2014 1:20 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jul 3, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Be careful, this is not always true. Many times, they drop on impulse and end up a few days later. Its about the margins & BV. The interest rates do change book value which in turn can hurt if a company is over levered as BV drops. However there are times when BV drops and margins widen. Look at history.

    All that said, I have a feeling that long rates will remain at below 5% for a very long time. Probably at least 2-3 years if not 5-6 years. Further, despite fed tapering, interest rates have actually declined in the last 6 months which means that the rates were actually artificially inflated by investors on the news and only fell back to what they are supposed to be over time which seems to be the low 4% on the long term. Again, be careful. Look at the long term graph vs. interest rates. Higher rates do not always result in lower price nor does the opposite guarantee higher prices.

  • Reply to

    obamas performance

    by colonelflashmanvc Jun 28, 2014 5:00 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jun 30, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Good retort for the most part however I need to point out a few things about where people get news. Almost no "progressive" under the age of 40 watches tv for news any more. Conservatives by definition, are much more likely to watch TV because by definition, they are not as "comfortable" with tech (progress). Sorry but its true in general although it is slowly changing as new generations of conservative are born into the internet era. Since news hubs list things by popularity and views and since online involvement remains in favor of progressives, this is why more liberal articles than conservative stuff. It has nothing to do with Google or Yahoo bias. As the numbers equalize, the articles will become more variant but people need to stop watching the dummy tube... there is a reason why its called that. All that said, you will find it interesting that conservatives actually spend more time on forums than their counterparts albeit most of the time its to vent anger. You give MSNBC too much credit.

    The number of bills passing are not really telling. Sometimes its better when nothing gets through. Frankly, I think both populist groups are so #$%$ that we are better off when nothing is passed, at least this has been the case since Nixon. I wish we had blocked Reagan , Bush, Clinton, and Obama at every step. We would be much better off today if we had since I cant think of a single good thing coming out of any of those imbeciles.

  • Reply to

    obamas performance

    by colonelflashmanvc Jun 28, 2014 5:00 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jun 30, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Bush projected what? Do you realize how asinine that statement is? No one, NO ONE is afraid of Bush. He was the laughing stock of the world. They were so scared of Bush I & II that they went and hijacked not one, but two planes and shoved them straight into our two towers. Then they threw a sandal at his face. Projected impotence is more like it. Say what you will about Obama, but at least he did not lie to start a war for his buddies. He did screw us on the healthcare thing but even that is questionable because what we got was nothing like what he has originally intended... you can blame that on the obstructionists in office and we all know who they are. The healthcare bill was destroyed by earmarks. I think Obama should have killed it but then you would be on here stating stupid things like he is indecisive. Lol people really are a laugh and so predictable.

  • Reply to

    $40 Tomorrow - Sell Short

    by drmlk3 Jun 26, 2014 10:23 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jun 29, 2014 5:05 AM Flag

    How is that working out for you? lol.

  • Reply to

    These big sell offs are just crazy. The numbers

    by gordon939 Jun 25, 2014 6:48 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jun 29, 2014 4:53 AM Flag

    Because we havent seen this happen a hundred times in the past... (rolls eyes). Last time I saw this happen to a company as strong as this was Cake in 2011. I made a killing on that one. Just wish I held it since then. We have also seen it with weaker companies that were in real danger like GMCR, NFLX, and FSLR. You my friend are an idiot plain and simple. Its not preaching, its looking at things objectively. They have absolutely no danger of failing and their ratios are all insane. Their margins are high. Their size gives them tons of room to grow and they are indeed growing a fast pace. They have no real debt to speak of. They have seen returns better than leveraged companies for years on end. Their multiplier makes them a value buy. Stock prices eventually correct themselves. They cant be driven by emotion or the big guys forever without consequence.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Jun 29, 2014 4:41 AM Flag

    Idiot, BBB always did that marketing. It isnt new. They are known for it. You had your chance to buy and if you didnt, its your own fault. This was a gift.

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