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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

thejumpingsheep 62 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 20, 2014 12:19 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2003
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  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 20, 2014 12:19 AM Flag

    I can tell that no one on this thread has a high level degree of any kind... gotta love the online soap box. Im right and youre wrong obviously.

  • Reply to

    Icahn just took a 10% stake in WFM..

    by expertoptiontrader Aug 14, 2014 10:17 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    I think they are just playing a prank to see if it will have the same effect as a couple of weeks ago lol.

  • Reply to

    Macy's...retail juggernaut

    by mtstrategies Aug 13, 2014 8:16 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I am not sure that you can compare food sales to things that can easily be displaced online. Macys hasnt really done much of anything since 2006 where their net was about the same as last year... They also lost a ton of BV since then for whatever reason. They are obsolete. I also dont think that the sales were lost, I think they just went somewhere else. All you have to do is drive around shopping center to know that there are more people out than ever before and I seriously doubt they are saving... I think with WMT specifically, the biggest hit is due to less food stamps. Not as many problems at Costco.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Both direction have been weak the past couple of months. You could make the same argument going the other way. Don't forget that shorts are kind of like pseudo-volume. You have to subtract new short positions from the negative days volume. We already saw them get reamed a few weeks ago on a fairly weak up move. Short volume is up to $38m as of 7/31.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    I would probably be wise to actually look at the transcripts and their financial docs before you make statements like this. They are already contracted to open 500 stores by 2017... Same store revenue is still positive at about 4%. It is not negative but it is slowing due to price cuts. But even with comps at 4% how do you stop the new store growth to justify a $25 price tag? What happens if the price cuts results in more revenue as well? What about the buybacks that were approved? We are talking a conservative 12%-16% overall EPS growth every year from now to 2017 already in ink. At $25 the P/E will be something like 10-12 lol. That basically wont happen unless there is a country wide emergency in the USA. Realistically, by 2017, you will probably see earnings of about $1.98 and a PE of at least 20 to 25 assuming no further buybacks and contracts for 40-50 new stores in ink the following year. If they hit 50, you will be on the high side of the P/E. If they are between 30-40 then the low side possibly is nothing else is happening with comps. If comps climb back to about 5%-6% then expect a P/E of 25-30.

    No matter what, the most conservative estimate would be $1.98 x20 = $39.60 and this assumes that comps fall further to the 2% range. A more likely estimate would be $1.98 x25 = $49.50 with comps remaining about the same. The high estimate would be $1.98 x 30 = $59.40 if comps are performing at an old clip. Again, all this assumes no new buybacks. If they decide to buy back more in 2015 & 2016 then you can expect all estimate to climb further.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Yea I owned MPW and BMR back in 2009-2010 but I didnt hold on to them due to the growth factor. I switched them out to OHI in 2011 when it took that triple dip because it was clearly oversold at that point while the others were trading at fair value. They have managed to continue that ffo growth since then which is very impressive and they have also added BV to old investors despite share sales. I follow a lot of REITs and this one has been extremely impressive since 2010, possible the most impressive REIT in the market today (that isnt a recent startup at least).

  • Reply to

    Wonder why LNCO up and LINE down today?

    by sandra888us Aug 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 12, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    Yea I thought it didnt sound right. The acronyms dont mean much to me until I do my taxes and after that I just forget them again. Im the guy who forgets a name after a hand shake. I remember what you do and your features and such but always forget the name.

  • Reply to

    Wonder why LNCO up and LINE down today?

    by sandra888us Aug 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 12, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    Yep sorry its UBTI.

  • I am not sure why this company does not get more attention, but it has been part of my various portfolios since 2011 when it dipped under $20. I added a little more in 2012 and have been holding back waiting for a good drop but it never came. After looking for rental reality all last week (granted it was retail but I saw a trend towards less vacancies) and looking through the last transcript I doubt that we will see another major dip in a long time. Since vacancies are dropping, rent will be under pressure to increase and so again, I feel like its safe to bet on hard asset real estate right now. I took a bite today given the dip after the last div and added to my position. I am now up to 10k shares making it about 10% of my main portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Criminal Hedge Funds Take over

    by crk00 Aug 8, 2014 11:49 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 9, 2014 11:01 PM Flag

    This does not help corporations, and funds or any business entity. This is why, if you check ownership, there are more institutions in LNCO than LINE. It also does not help any investor planning to sell before death lol. A lot happens in life. In my case, if I see a glowing opportunity somewhere else you can bet your patuty I will be selling to switch to that opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Can you say $9.45 a share?

    by rjs_scam_alert Aug 5, 2014 6:09 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 9, 2014 10:47 PM Flag

    Since share price generally follow bv with a deviation based on yield, you would need BV to drop to. I am fairly certain that you have no idea how book value works here otherwise you would know that it really cant drop much below $10.50. The deviation is caused by margins. Again, I dont think you have the faintest idea how the margins work in mREITs. You are just looking at a graph and assuming a trend.

    There is an old saying that goes something like "you should not invest in thigs you do not understand." You shouldnt be in this stock be it one way or the other because you dont know much about the business. Go play with MCD or KR. They are much easier.

  • Reply to

    Criminal Hedge Funds Take over

    by crk00 Aug 8, 2014 11:49 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 8, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    What doesnt make sense is buying Line at a premium. They are the same stock... if you have money you should obviously buy the one on discount. A corporation or fund will not save on deferred taxes anyway so there is no advantage in LINE for them.

  • Reply to

    Wonder why LNCO up and LINE down today?

    by sandra888us Aug 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 8, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Because the margin in between the two has no basis in reason. Eventually they will trade within pennies of each other. The only distinction between the two is when you pay tax. LNCO you pay immediately while LINE you pay when you sell. LNCO was created to bypass AMT in IRA's which prevented IRA investors from buying a lot of MLPs. Bottom its the Roth IRA vs Traditional IRA argument. Some think they will pay less as they age so they go traditional while others think they will pay less now since they dont make as much money. In down years, you can expect people to sell line and pick up LNCO because they have losses that can cover gains. In bull markets they will sell LNCO in favor of LINE to take advantage of deferred tax from depletion. Over time, they are basically the same.

  • Reply to

    Think about this

    by logantrader1960 Aug 8, 2014 1:23 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 8, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    Different strokes for different folks. I actually completely disagree with you about IRA. I think people are generally much too conservative (scared) and by watching my parents over the years, I know that too conservative = very high risk. All investments should be treated the same, with lots of caution, due diligence, and for maximum return. There is really no difference whether its in an IRA or not, that is just a mental thing. If you dont invest in something outside an IRA, you should not have it in your IRA either. The investment is either good or not.

    The IRA does have a tax advantage which is nice so that should reflect in your investing decisions. Dividend stocks are perfect for IRAs for that reason. You are incorrect about having to pay capital tax on LINE in an IRA. I held it for a couple of years and never met AMT limit for having to pay taxes and I held well over 2k shares at one point. You do need to pay tax if you go over the AMT limit but most folks will not reach that amount unless they hold all MLP's in their IRA which is not likely. There is no AMT on LNCO dividends so I switched to that at a nice discount in both the IRA and my normal account.

    The reason LINE is at a premium right now is because they are writing off a lot of the distribution. As you all know however, eventually, the write offs will come home to roost and you will need to pay them when you sell. LNCO simply makes you pay immediately rather than later. Its just a matter of opinion whether or not tax will be higher or lower when you sell. For me, it is probably lower now than later but the markets have been up the last few years so people are probably trying to dodge more capital gains until there is a down year.

  • Reply to

    Chances are Icahn bought WFM

    by veh012 Aug 5, 2014 5:07 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 5, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Nah, Icahn likes to have control so that he can have direct access to the corporate checkbook. He then uses the company money to pay down his own debts, encumber them some more, and exit leaving behind a crippled carcass. Overall he is usually very bad for a company long term, albeit he usually pushes the stock price up temporarily.

  • Reply to

    My thought on Icahn

    by fleschkevin Aug 5, 2014 12:22 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 5, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    I stopped trying to understand people long ago. What the point to grass fed milk? There inst a point. No scientifically at least, just speculation about correlations none of which have any real supporting evidence to support the claim. All organic food falls under that objection, yet, people hear what they want to hear and believe based on that. People also smoke cigarettes, drink alcohol and eat fried foods... Point here is that there is no point in trying to make sense of people. Even you follow illogical beliefs so why cant people who buy organic vinegar?.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 5, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    welcome to the ignore list.

  • Reply to

    Earnings (Whole Foods and Sprouts)

    by gearhead305 Jul 29, 2014 2:29 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 2, 2014 2:52 AM Flag

    You cant really say the two are not related. What is driving down WFM is same store comps of mature locations. New locations obviously have higher comps but because WFM is larger it can be viewed as the future of SFM to some degree. Also, WFM is losing growth because they are reducing prices. This is not good for SFM. If prices become equal, WFM will win in any competitive market. SMF's draw right now is that it is a little cheaper than WFM and that they are in markets that WFM is not like lower income areas but its still very expensive compared to a normal market and thus they are more susceptible to economic slowdowns since their client base does not make as much as WFM clients.

    I like both companies. I purchased a chunk of WFM last Monday and I was going to pick up more if it drops back down to $35 but now I am thinking that maybe I should diversify with both. I will do more research over the weekend.

  • Reply to


    by expertoptiontrader Aug 1, 2014 11:29 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 1, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Thats what everyone says every time a stock performs like this. I wouldnt have $3m today in my name if I listened to them and I would have nearly $7m to play with from family and friends who trust me. Play fundamentals not technical's except when markets are inflated near 25 P/E. As long as Reagan policies remain in effect (Reaganomics), 25 P/E will always be the inflection point between normal and bubble. Its too predictable.

  • Reply to

    New 52 week sell signal triggered here today

    by sjsrhs Aug 1, 2014 2:18 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 1, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Its not up to them.

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