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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

thejumpingsheep 77 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2014 1:21 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2003
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  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Sep 12, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    @clrodirick Yea these guys needs a lesson on market movement. If the market goes down 20% you can bet your 1st born and your house that everything goes down, including REITs, bonds and anything else. Safety is bologna during a 20% shift which many would consider a minor crash. But its not going to happen without a major event (like 9-11.. god forbid). There are two reasons;

    #1 valuation is still in the middle of historic norm. Note that the S&P has been between 15-25 P/E since Reaganomics were instituted for obvious reasons (rich get richer policies thus reinvestment is rampant and valuations have skyrocketed).

    #2 The simple reason is that there is no where else to invest with any sort of safety worldwide. Its better to buy something safe and proven for a 25%-50% premium than take a chance on China or South America. Hell even they keep buying US stocks and bonds... ever wounder why?

    The only established markets worth looking at right now are UK (but they have more problems than us by a long shot), Australia, and Sweden. All the rest are garbage (like Spain, France, Italy, Singapore etc) even if their valuations are low due to the inherent risk of the country itself. Emerging markets are even worse and are most likely toast in the next decade or two due to robotics so its just a matter of time before they implode. Japan might be worth it soon for the same reason. They already started automating restaurants and manufacturing long ago so there will be a point when profit starts to spike due to cost savings.

  • Reply to

    Whole foods........ just like apple computer

    by kbonse Sep 2, 2014 10:52 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Sep 3, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    Very bad example... Apple is sub-par products that are outperformed by pretty much anything which are marketed to high hell for the least common denominator. Whole Foods has quality products and almost no marketing at all lol. They are polar opposites in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Short at Will

    by stocky6666 Jul 17, 2014 2:37 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 28, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    A dividend cut would send shares up, not down. This is a C-Corp not an mlp or reit... seriously get a clue.

  • Reply to

    does any one think MAT would cut the DIV?

    by corolla1974 Jul 19, 2014 6:09 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 28, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    Cutting the dividend would not help shorts at all. It will result in the price going higher not lower because that cash can then be used to buy back stock at low price without the double tax whammy.

  • Reply to

    Been gone awhile;

    by jrfillion Aug 28, 2014 2:22 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 28, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Here is what I have so far:

    1 - Insiders are buying at higher prices. Not huge amounts but significant enough for their actually wages. Interestingly they were selling earlier in the year.
    2 -They created new preferred stock in June at a high rate of mid 8% I believe. I assume that money has already been deployed albeit I dont expect much in return given the high interest paid.
    3- They bout a residential mortgage company last year. Primary Capital Mortgage. Looks like this is not profitable yet.
    4 - According to one analyst there is some margin pressure though he did not elaborate nor war it mentioned in the transcript.
    5 - No notable change in inst ownership in RSO
    6 - "RCF (resource capital fund) owned and controlled 195,439,933 Common Shares representing approximately 41.7% of the outstanding Common Shares. Including the Acquired Shares, RCF owns and controls 258,875,852 Common Shares representing approximately 48.7% of the outstanding Common Shares." So they own a big chunk but not he entire thing.

    It sounds like they are currently not making enough to cover the dividend. I need to check when they project to be able to cover it again or if a cut is in the cards.

  • Reply to

    Been gone awhile;

    by jrfillion Aug 28, 2014 2:22 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 28, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Im looking into it too. I just read their last transcript and it looks pretty good to me numerically. Income & revenue is growing and I know that CRE in general is booming right now so this will bode well. Its been a while since I looked into these guys but if memory serves me they are not a normal mREIT like NLY or AGNC or CIM. If memory serves their loans a bit more stable but I need to refresh my memory about bottom line risks.

    As far as the mining company goes, so far, it looks like RSO owns the mining company or at least that is what I read on a brief unofficial report. I assume the company went under and RSO took control. Either way its probably not a good thing (probably) but how bad is unknown.

    How about we both work on some DD since this board is filled with useless banter? At the current price... we would be fools to not at least look at it. Historically I would wait till its under $5 but with income growing and CRE booming it might be wise to pull the trigger a bit earlier this time around. I will post what I find.

  • Reply to

    Whole Foods Market visit

    by msftintckings Aug 21, 2014 3:32 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 28, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Yep but even that price is too high for me. We get sushi grade salmon for $10-$15/lb around SoCal. Sometimes even less than that. Its amazing...

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Silly PR statement. Apple is just BSD and Google is just Linux. China has had Chinese version of Linux for more than decade lol. And they work just fine but most people want windows for the software and games.

  • Reply to

    Buy, Sell or Hold IBM, What's your opinion ???

    by dancinggator Aug 27, 2014 12:41 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 11:01 PM Flag

    Been struggling with that question for years lol. I just dont know where they are going. I think the future is in easier data access and logic automation but they dont seem to have made any new progress on Watson in a long time. Its starting to look like a gimmick. What exactly is JnJ supposed to do with Watson?

    Other than that, with the loss of the server business it means enterprise will suffer in the long run. They will need to depend more on service contracts and if anyone has worked with IBM, MSFT, Oracle or other big names before... we can tell you they suck the big one. They are not talented at all when it comes to services. Their hardware was actually ok although overpriced.

    I love the P/E and buybacks at this level though... at some point that is going to have a huge impact. I just dont know where they are going. Cloud is useless in 90% of applications so I hope they are not pinning too much hope on that... I dont know.

  • Reply to

    This isnt to overdone. ridiculous

    by dispatchhh Aug 27, 2014 4:27 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    You dont think the P/E is a bit inflated for their growth? I mean... they are not even hitting 10%... their growth is actually similar to BBBY over the last 3 years and BBBY trades at about 13.5x with better margins and insane buybacks. i wont even mention the 10 year comparisons... i think this is just a wake up call. It was riding too high at 25x. It probably needs to be inline with competitors of similar growth profile unless I am missing something.

  • Reply to

    No threat to California economy

    by norrishappy Aug 25, 2014 10:39 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    I already explained to you in detail why it looks like they have a lot of poor people on paper. It simply is not true. Its just how it looks in the stats. Again, go meet some "poor" people before you speak. Most work under the table hiding 100% of their income. The same poor people rent a home that was purchased with cash under a relatives name. They are also the same small business owners who barely report 50% of their actually income.

    They are not poor. If they really were poor then the state economy would be in depression based on the statistics alone.

    I do agree about unfair tax breaks but that is the name of the game in politics. Its not a CA thing. In fact, Republicans are the worst perpetrators since all of their "favored" industries are subsidized by tax money. They dont have a single industry backing them that is not doing on the backs of tax payers. At the very least, CA subsidized tech like Tesla which will be hugely successful in about 5-6 years. They would not exist today if it were not for these social incentives. Also look at solar... it is booming faster than anything I have seen since the dawn of PC's and the internet. It would not be happening if it were not for government subsidies into research and development. Even after solyndra, it will be a wild and extremely productive success. in other words, there is a time and a place when such tax breaks and incentives make sense. If it is to help the country then its good. If it just to help your buddies and does not push progress, then it is very bad.

  • Reply to

    Whole Foods Market visit

    by msftintckings Aug 21, 2014 3:32 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    I am sure people shop at each others markets. Its not like Joes has everything you need or want. They have only 3 products that I ever want in the fresh basil plants (because they are cheap), cheesecake (which is like once every other year) and dried snacks which are good but overpriced so I barely ever buy them. I spend a ton more a WFM because of the food court... though I dont really buy much else. I did notice the price of fish there was actually the same as any other supermarket with king salmon going for about $16/lb. Its actually the same price at Costco.

    I went to the WFM in Hillcrest (San Diego) on Monday while I was in the area looking for retail location. All I can say is they need wider lanes... the place was too packed and Hillcrest is not a high wealth area though it is a "happening" town. That is one of their smaller locations however, nothing like the one up in La Jolla which is twice the size and still always packed from early afternoon up to around 8pm.

  • Reply to

    No threat to California economy

    by norrishappy Aug 25, 2014 10:39 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    And yet their environment created the best innovations over the last half century. So who are you to say that they are wrong about their system? Did it ever occur to you that they might have it right and you have it wrong? Further, redistribution is a conservative demonized catch phrase that is completely redefined in their favor. It just bs.

    Money is always being redistributed. That is the definition of a monetary system since the dawn of society. If money is not "redistributed" or more correctly, continuously flowing (a term republicans dont use out of fear of being proven #$%$), then economies fail. The only question is how its being redistributed. If you believe republicans then redistribution should go up to the wealthiest people and corporate interest and not just any corporate, no, it should go to only the richest and most powerful of corporations and not small business. That is their redistribution plan. Democrats think it should go to everyone equally which, as you point out, has its own problems if people are lazy. But you know what I learned? The rich are lazy too. Everyone is the damn same. Most of the rich only got that way through opportunism not innovation. Maybe 1 in every 100 rich did it the right way through productive work and smarts. The rest are just a product of opportunity be it heritage (see anyone who inherited money and land), timing (see people like jobs, gates, or the waltons), or regulation (see banks, insurers, oil, and defense aka all republican backed businesses). So bottom line, you pick your poison. I would go with the democratic redistribution plan because frankly, we dont need the rich to survive, they will simply be replaced if they go away. But we absolutely need innovation which comes mostly from colleges and middle class folks. We cannot replace them unless you do what China does and simply steal it all lol.

  • Reply to

    Stuck N Deep Mud

    by bluefinboots Aug 26, 2014 3:04 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 2:48 AM Flag

    I learned over the years to never underestimate the market leader. The big scare today is competition. Do you know of any market that has a food court like WFM? Nope. How about their prime locations? Nope. Last, look at the competition. The big one is Sprouts. Sprouts has twice as much debt as cash. WFM has 12x as much cash than debt. Their net margin is also twice that of sprouts. So guess what will happen if sprouts forces a price war? Yep, they get screwed.

    It might take a while but WFM will win in the end no matter how you slice it. Dont ever mess with the market leader especially when they are debt free... at least not in businesses like this. If it were tech I would say differently but not in retail.

  • Reply to

    No threat to California economy

    by norrishappy Aug 25, 2014 10:39 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 27, 2014 2:38 AM Flag

    Seriously get over yourself. You are not smart. What was the point to this thread?

    CA is building huge desal plants. CA is also the center of almost ever great tech in the last 50 years so complain all you want but without them the USA would have entered depression thanks to Reagan policies. We were only saved by jobs created by silicon valley and the colleges there. Once their desal plants are built they will be in better shape than states with dirty rivers. Last time I looked I think they were building something like 6 plants and oh by the way, their state surplus ($4b) is twice that of the republicans greatest state, TX ($2.1b), so just zip it.

    Let me also fill you on something you clearly do not understand. That $4b surplus was funded with the illegal problem and all the social services offered in the state. On top of that, about 50% of CA economy is underground or hidden from government stats due to immigrants and illegals all working under the table. In other words, a drive around town tells you a lot more than hypothetical theories. Their economy is incredible and there is a reason why their home prices remain so strong. It is not just investor conspiracy and such conspiracies would not explain corporate earnings in the region. The same people hiding their money are also categorized as "poor" by your stats. So again, just zip it.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 20, 2014 12:19 AM Flag

    I can tell that no one on this thread has a high level degree of any kind... gotta love the online soap box. Im right and youre wrong obviously.

  • Reply to

    Icahn just took a 10% stake in WFM..

    by expertoptiontrader Aug 14, 2014 10:17 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    I think they are just playing a prank to see if it will have the same effect as a couple of weeks ago lol.

  • Reply to

    Macy's...retail juggernaut

    by mtstrategies Aug 13, 2014 8:16 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    I am not sure that you can compare food sales to things that can easily be displaced online. Macys hasnt really done much of anything since 2006 where their net was about the same as last year... They also lost a ton of BV since then for whatever reason. They are obsolete. I also dont think that the sales were lost, I think they just went somewhere else. All you have to do is drive around shopping center to know that there are more people out than ever before and I seriously doubt they are saving... I think with WMT specifically, the biggest hit is due to less food stamps. Not as many problems at Costco.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Both direction have been weak the past couple of months. You could make the same argument going the other way. Don't forget that shorts are kind of like pseudo-volume. You have to subtract new short positions from the negative days volume. We already saw them get reamed a few weeks ago on a fairly weak up move. Short volume is up to $38m as of 7/31.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Aug 14, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    I would probably be wise to actually look at the transcripts and their financial docs before you make statements like this. They are already contracted to open 500 stores by 2017... Same store revenue is still positive at about 4%. It is not negative but it is slowing due to price cuts. But even with comps at 4% how do you stop the new store growth to justify a $25 price tag? What happens if the price cuts results in more revenue as well? What about the buybacks that were approved? We are talking a conservative 12%-16% overall EPS growth every year from now to 2017 already in ink. At $25 the P/E will be something like 10-12 lol. That basically wont happen unless there is a country wide emergency in the USA. Realistically, by 2017, you will probably see earnings of about $1.98 and a PE of at least 20 to 25 assuming no further buybacks and contracts for 40-50 new stores in ink the following year. If they hit 50, you will be on the high side of the P/E. If they are between 30-40 then the low side possibly is nothing else is happening with comps. If comps climb back to about 5%-6% then expect a P/E of 25-30.

    No matter what, the most conservative estimate would be $1.98 x20 = $39.60 and this assumes that comps fall further to the 2% range. A more likely estimate would be $1.98 x25 = $49.50 with comps remaining about the same. The high estimate would be $1.98 x 30 = $59.40 if comps are performing at an old clip. Again, all this assumes no new buybacks. If they decide to buy back more in 2015 & 2016 then you can expect all estimate to climb further.

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