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Sony Corporation Message Board

thejumpingsheep 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 3:41 PM Member since: Apr 30, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Really dumb to think it's too late to short BBEP

    by karenlupa Dec 16, 2014 9:07 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Dec 23, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    It very easy to go with the flow of the market. Many people got crushed that way. I made millions doing the opposite. For the record i am down about $1.0m this year.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Dec 23, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    How do you know goofball? Sounds like pure jealousy to me. Who cares how many shares one person had, has or whatever? Id rather people put their money where their mouth it so we have it for historic purposes on these forums.

  • Reply to

    investor on the ledge code red

    by colonelflashmanvc Nov 27, 2014 10:58 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Nov 28, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    If that is just a third of your savings then you have well over 3/4 mil. If you are retiring soon what is the problem? You need more than that to retire? Why?

    Also if you are as old as you say, then you have seen the markets and oil do this several times already. So again, what is the problem?

    Lastly, why are you so hung up on wealth? Perspective. Its the 21st century. You should know better. Money is meaningless. Its just a means to pass time and laugh a little when you have more than someone else. It is a "neener neener" activity. Otherwise, it was never really needed. This is not the days of old when you had to plow for 12 hours a day just to live. You can enjoy life just as much while on welfare enjoying a hike or a beach as Warren Buffett would with billions in his pocket... actually people on welfare are usually happier because they dont have much on their minds (few responsibilities to worry about).

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 29, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Ive made of fortune on them although recently energy has been ugly. But you cant really treat div stocks like normal stuff. Over time they win 90% of the time. Line sucks now but in 3-5 years? Its unlikely the div will drop much the next 2 years due to hedges and I doubt that prices will stay low that far in the future. Hard asset REITs are almost never bad. I remember buying CWH back when people ran and in time I made about $200k on that one. If the price drops too low on hard assets someone will step in to either buy them out or take over control. You can always depend on greed and nothing beats real estate greed (except oil greed lol).

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 22, 2014 11:56 PM Flag

    And like I said, ive heard your tune as well. Do I need to give examples? How about $1T Apple back in 2012? How about sky is the limit for solar back in 2007? AOL? Excite? Palm? How about all those pharma nuts? Diet stocks (lol)? College stocks were the thing 8 years ago. People say things like you do all the time.

  • Reply to

    30% distribution cut

    by arsesm Sep 15, 2014 3:44 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 22, 2014 11:48 PM Flag

    All businesses move on fundamentals no matter what. In the case of mlp's, it just happens that distributions are akin to earnings but not always. Bottom line, they are no different than net income at any regular stock and then evaluated based on individual investing preferences. There are plenty of energy companies that are not mlp's yet they moved the same way as mlp's and people invest in them just the same. Further, I have seen stock prices drop during increased distros, and increase during flat or declining distros. This happens because most of the trading volume taking place in a normal day is not by investors but by swing and day traders.

    The current drop in prices also disprove your statement. Oil has dropped and that has hurt the stock price of mlp's and other energy related companies. Yet, most mlp distros are not really changing and many will not change for years out if at all. Remember some mlp's are not even involved in oil yet they got crushed just the same. Same with midstreams. Bottom line,

    Another good example, all mlp's crashed during the 2008/2009 crash despite strong distros, many of which, were not cut at all. Despite rising distros and performance, stock prices still took a hit during this last bear run. EROC and BBEP both skyrocketed back during 2009 despite canceling distro's.

    The point here is that stock price is not always correlated to actual business. That was the point to my original post.

  • Reply to

    22 times earnings for lower revs and net?

    by nomorehomes Oct 21, 2014 5:09 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 22, 2014 3:17 AM Flag

    I dont know about the 80's comment (I was just a kid) but I agree that they needed to diversify long ago. I do think the partnership with Keurig was an ok idea. Not the greatest but ok since Keurig is not exactly a household name outside of folks who buy k-cups and they are not going to be big on buying bottles. I have my doubts about the energy drink fad as well. All that said however, people have been doubting KO for more than a decade now... yet if you look at their 10 year it is actually very impressive. They have doubled revenue and income handily despite all the negativity about soda. This is why I think they should get some consideration. Maybe not 22 P/E but anything in the 15 P/E range is very good. Their fP/E is already under 19 so a decline to $32-$35 would put them in the 14.5 to 16 P/E range which is very fair I think considering history.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 22, 2014 3:05 AM Flag

    Ive heard both arguments in the past and Ive seen both fall on their face. I need to look at their earnings. Are they actually growing in existing markets or are they fueling growth almost entirely by entering new markets? Also who are the main customers? I know its not the gym crown... ive been there since high school 20 years ago and never knew anyone who works out and drinks monster. College kids? Non-coffee drinkers?

  • Reply to

    22 times earnings for lower revs and net?

    by nomorehomes Oct 21, 2014 5:09 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 21, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    20 might be a bit low ball. I can see $32 being an ok number. Remember there is a long history there of very strong business. This is not some hyped up company.

  • thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 21, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    Yea I thought that was extremely stupid too. Talk about brain drain lol.

  • Reply to

    Great entry point for short and long term

    by margate1980 Oct 21, 2014 5:09 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 21, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Its not low... it was however too high based on nothing. Since they are shrinking, it does not make sense to trade at near 22 p/e. We should be trading at about $32-$35 until there are signs of growth.

  • Reply to

    BBEP Could Go To Zero

    by brainboy262 Oct 17, 2014 3:48 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 17, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Time to change your username because A) you have no brain and B) everyone probably has you on the ignore list.

  • Reply to

    30% distribution cut

    by arsesm Sep 15, 2014 3:44 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 16, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    By your argument, all businesses should have cut their earnings 50% back in 2009 because their stock went down 50%... they didnt. Stock price has no bearing on operations except when they want to issue shares. Either dig into the reports or you are just gambling. I got out of EROC in 2011 for a reason. I got into EROC in 2009 for a reason too. Now I am in ARP. There is no way NG is going much lower and we are entering Winter. Oil is probably never going to dip much below $80 else our domestic producers will start to go out of business or cut production significantly (because it costs about that much to extract it). The Soudi's are playing an interesting game. For them, it is best if oil sticks under $80 because it destroys their competition allowing them to swoop in and buy our firms at a great discount.

  • Reply to

    I suppose

    by islandboy379 Oct 16, 2014 9:20 AM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 16, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    I see it. Wonder what it is for. $75m isnt much though it would be funny if they started a buy back program. Trading 9.5% for 14% is not bad.

  • Reply to

    Adding to my energy portfolio

    by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:03 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 10, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Grow up bubba.

  • Reply to

    Adding to my energy portfolio

    by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:03 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 10, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Botched that call. Looks like we are heading further south on energy. Got out pre-market when I saw futures continuing its tailspin.

  • Reply to

    Adding to my energy portfolio

    by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:03 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    It might happen... but the floor on oil is $80 before it is no longer worth extracting. There really is not a lot of wiggle room and we are entering winter for nat gas... this is now a hedge fund and day trader driven decline based on momentum. I think the correction has already happened as of a few days ago. But that is just 1 person's opinion.

  • Reply to

    Adding to my energy portfolio

    by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:03 PM
    thejumpingsheep thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    It does not matter if you believe me or not. Its a public forum. BTW i accumulated 30k shares now.

  • thejumpingsheep by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    I wanted to buy a few days ago but got caught up in the oil sell off and forgot about it... the buy back is a great deal. Ive held these guys since 2009 and although the position was small, it performed very well.

  • thejumpingsheep by thejumpingsheep Oct 9, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    I am not sure how low oil will take the sector, but this is a good entry. I hold some lnco and line right now but has some wiggle room with some long positions that have been sitting for far too long. I took up about 10k shares in the 16.55 zone. Waiting to see what happens.

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