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Itron, Inc. Message Board

thermo_bea 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2015 6:10 PM Member since: Oct 14, 1998
  • Reply to

    Observation

    by johnamkins Jul 21, 2015 4:48 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jul 21, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    It's called throughput. In table service restaurants it's called table turn. It's a core metric for any restaurant. Line throughput or table turn is directly proportional to revenue as soon as you've got a line or all tables full, for fast casual and table service restaurants, respectively.

  • thermo_bea by thermo_bea Jun 29, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    CMG is basically tracking the broad market recently (with some outperformance today). It's tracked the market over the 5-day and 30-day periods. Most of the lagging performance is associated with a few days after April 21 and another brief period.

  • thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 16, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    Yep. Slower comps are baked in the cake and the only things that could rescue top line growth would be if a non-Chipotle brand (Shophouse or the pizza concept) began ramping quickly and soon or if overseas Chipotle did so.

    Fast casual competition is heating up all over the place and with interest rates backing up there is a general headwind on growth stock valuations. Oh, and then there is the growing movement towards higher minimum wages, which will even trickle up to those not currently making the minimum wage. Margin squeeze!

  • Reply to

    REALLY wanna dip my toes in here

    by tonyrocka1 Jun 12, 2015 12:25 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 16, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Go for it. Fight the tide.

  • Reply to

    volume

    by thermo_bea Jun 10, 2015 4:33 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 11, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    Well, today was another decline in CMG while the markets were up, but volume was half of average.

  • thermo_bea by thermo_bea Jun 10, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Take a look at the daily volume (or more granular data if you have access). It looks like volume is higher on down days and the narrow churn days. On a day like today with the broad market up sharply, CMG is up less than half the market and on low volume.

  • Reply to

    momos scurrying out of CMG

    by thermo_bea Jun 10, 2015 10:02 AM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 10, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Don't count on it. Big traders front run the news. They have the budgets to hire independent traffic monitors and get other street level data. They'll know the quarter is down before any company announcement.

  • It really is starting to look like momentum investors are trying to ease out of their CMG positions given the weak performance vs. the broad market If investors start to sense a slowdown in growth at Chipotle it's going to be a big deal for the stock. This is because there is a large gap between the prices momentum and value investors will pay. If growth slows, there are no "natural buyers" of CMG for at least 100 points downside. In fact, I wouldn't see a traditional value buyer coming in much above $400, $450 max

  • thermo_bea by thermo_bea Jun 8, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    A quick note that CMG has significantly trailed the S&P500 over the past 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month periods. However, during the past 5 trading days it has slightly exceeded the price performance on the S&P500. Given the tight band CMG has gone into recently, this is unlikely to persist - it will resolve to the upside or downside. My hunch is more downside.

  • Reply to

    support $608

    by mbunce1 Jun 3, 2015 8:09 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 5, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    It depends. It's looking like today is going to show a bullish reversal - opening lower but then closing higher that the previous day's close, and this against a down market overall.

  • Wedbush took their 12-month price target down to $620 today. Given CMG's low beta (~0.7), that implies a current price of about $580 (apprx. 7% implied expected return).

    (The again, the sell side folks are usually generous even when taking targets down. They really do everything they can to avoid printing a target below the current price. So take a guess that the "inside" target is somewhere in the low-mid $500s. Discount that and get a current price of roughly $500.)

  • Reply to

    support $608

    by mbunce1 Jun 3, 2015 8:09 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 5, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Even more interesting today, getting down below $602 and finding a sharp recovery and as of now seems like it's heading to that pin zone around $608 - $612.

    On shaky ground.

  • Reply to

    support $608

    by mbunce1 Jun 3, 2015 8:09 PM
    thermo_bea thermo_bea Jun 4, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    It does look like it's pinned to a narrow range around $610. It is starting to look like support, but CMG has been volatile lately and has had several moves counter to the market, so it's a bit odd right now.

    If it breaks below this narrow range it would seem to suggest quite more downside. It is a very expensive stock and is riding high on very low interest rates (low discount rates) in a growth-starved market. If expectations normalize and rates rise, it will hit the steady growth stories the hardest.

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