I agree the after hours action is strong given the situation. I'd mentioned earlier that perhaps the alliance of analysts with too much face to save will keep this elevated yet again. It may be happening. Fair value is somewhere below $400, probably substantially below it. But the stock could stay elevated for some time. The company will be putting a bid under it with the buyback and the sell side analysts are going to keep painting a rosy picture relative to the reality.
Instead of trading down to roughly $300 and then providing fair returns forward, it may trade in a broad, elevated range of ~$400 to ~550 for half a decade. Who knows.
$300 is reasonable and it starts looking like a buy in the low $200s. Could it go below $200? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it.
When will analysts get it that Chipotle is not going to be opening new stores at nearly the same rate as before???
“We are pleased to have this behind us and can place our full energies to implementing our enhanced food safety plan that will establish Chipotle as an industry leader in food safety,” said co-CEO Steve Ells in a statement. “We are extremely focused on executing this program, which designs layers of redundancy and enhanced safety measures..."
One thing that's been nagging me is that the sell side analysts are all heavily invested - not financially, but repputation-wise - in the Chipotle story. You can see it in how reluctant they are to bring down estimates, including the likelihood of slower new store openings. So bears beware after the conference call. Even if the call is worse than expected, it is possible that most analysts will spin it positive and retain price targets that reflect extremely high P/E multiples.
So what? I'm bearish on CMG but a bunch of troll posts aren't part of my decision. Last year a local Mom 'n Pop restaurant got some bad press due to a simple misunderstanding with a customer with a disabled child. On Facebook it was clear that there exists a coordinated underground network of disability trolls. They endlessly bashed the restaurant and owners even though it was crystal clear few of them had ever set food in the place. However, loyal customers also spoke up. But the bottom line is that their bottom line did not suffer. The trolls had no power. The place still had lines out the door.
It seems nobody is pitching this stock. I seem to remember the management team didn't have good relationships with Wall Street or shareholders in general. I remember years ago looking at the conference calls and the management not saying much and even suspecting management ran the company for insiders.
However, this may have led to an "under the radar" situation where nobody follows the stock while they continue to improve performance.
Lower oil prices will be favorable to the bottom line and fish meal prices continue the relentless but volatile climb they've experienced over the past couple of decades.
This could be a $50 stock in a few years depending on the catch, oil prices, and fish meal / oil prices.
Another way to look at CMG's valuation is to look more properly at future earnings and dividends and doing a proper dividend discount model.
If we assume CMG grows earnings at 15%/yr for a staggering 15 years with no dips, it will have earnings of over $100 in 2031. Assume 5% growth after that. Also generously assume they begin paying a dividend next year at a 50% payout ratio. Then apply a low discount factor of 10%. You get a fair value of $400. (All numbers nominal.) This valuation is under very optimistic conditions.
If we are even more generous and switch the payout ratio to 70% 15 years from now, the fair value goes to $510.
More realistic assumptions show lower valuations. For example, simply using a nominal discount rate of 12% (very reasonable for a high growth equity in a competitive market) along with the enhanced 70% terminal payout, results in a fair value of $320.
If you look at industry multiples in this highly valued market you still have to award CMG a 20x multiple on forward (2017) EPS of $16-17. So that gets you to $320 - $340.
If the market returns to more normal levels and also recognizes slower growth is ahead for CMG,, a 15x multiple is reasonable, implying $240 - $260.
I'm not sure how much and how far forward Omega has hedged oil prices, but eventually, these lower oil prices are doing to hit the bottom line. Fuel is a huge expense for Omega, so sharply lower oil prices mean sharply higher Omega profits.
It could be ugly for you during the next couple of weeks if they pump this up during the news vacuum. You may have to wait a while. At least until the early Feb. conference call.
Back-to-back 6%+ up days, one with a market is steep decline, another with the market rising sharply.
It starts to look like near-term support. It's now a trader's game until the conference call in early Feb. There is no news, so expect volatility for the next three weeks as trader's game the name.
An incredible day for CMG. The markets and individual stocks will surprise you! CMG, one of the biggest dogs in past weeks was a star today. The amazing thing was that it simply held its huge gains while the market fell off a cliff. There either aren't many eager sellers or someone is putting a big bid under this. The company's buyback program isn't nearly large enough to be the cause.
If you read my posts during the past few weeks, you'll see I state the bear case. But we do need to watch price and volume and today we see CMG up very strongly on big volume while the overall market is down. Only time will tell whether this is some short covering (profit taking by shorts) or real buying by long-term investors or short-term program trading.
Sure, some of the bids may be company buyback, but that is "only" about $400MM. By noon EST about $700MM of CMG will have traded today!
Earnings this quarter are nearly meaningless to the valuation of CMG. It's future cash flows discounted to take into account market rates and company risk. The important question is whether the current price bakes in realistic estimates for earnings 2, 3, 4... years in the future. I think not. I think the stock looks very richly valued.
CMG was performing much better than the market from the open for most of the day while the market traded modestly higher. As the market turned down, CMG began to crater and is now dramatically under performing the market. The earlier volume on CMG was weak, but volume increased noticeably when CMG turned down.
Not good news for bulls.
The $400 test is in play.
Yes, and if you know anything about operations, that's a big deal.
That said, I really doubt they will be putting lids on and off each item as they are working. That could create more risk than it avoids. Maybe they'll put lids on during slow periods.