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Gastar Exploration Inc. Message Board

theseriousinvestor 144 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Dec 31, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Out of the preferreds

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 26, 2015 11:50 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor 20 hours ago Flag

    I don't know that your 4% figure is correct. I get about 23 million for preferred dividends and 173 million for current capex which makes preferred 13.3% of capex. That capex figure is likely to be cut again since oil and gas prices were much higher when that decision was made so to the extent you are focus on the percentage figure of capex, it will be much higher. I would also note that director Selser who recently sold out his B preferred share positon of 7,500 shares this month had just added a 1000 B shares last month. Insiders here and most elsewhere aren't typically traders.

    You and other may be absolutely correct on the continued preferred dividends but, like I said, I just don't see the risk reward at current pricing. Even without the risk, the B shares seem overpriced at a mere 9% discount to par with bonds trading at about a 15% discount to par.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Out of the preferreds

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 26, 2015 11:50 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor 22 hours ago Flag

    Selling preferred to buy common would certainly be bullish for the common but since we haven't seen any Form 4 filings showing such insider purchases after the preferred sales, it's a moot point. I am waiting to see if the "activist" appointed director re-buys next week after what I construe to be his tax loss sale at the end of last month.

    I've answered your hypothetical now how about answering this one: What if the preferreds are being sold and the money is being reinvested in the bonds? How does that bode for the preferreds and common? There was a tremendous amount of bond activity yesterday but since insiders apparently don't have to file for bond purchases/sales, we don't have filings to rely upon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Out of the preferreds

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 26, 2015 11:50 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 27, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    No, I don't think they are that dumb to immediately suspend the dividend after selling, unless there is some fine point to be applied to the insider trading rules. I do, however, think they may seem some risk for suspension in the future and are selling while they can. Nobody knows the cash flow situation and likely re-sizing of the revolver better than they do.
    All I know is I sleep better not holding the preferreds. I don't want to wake up one morning to news of a suspension and kick myself for not paying attention to the road signs.
    Good luck to you and others who choose to hold. We each make our own decisions on risk vs. reward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 27, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    A nice break could bring back the technical buyers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    20% increase in two weeks?

    by surfcitytownhome Jan 26, 2015 12:52 PM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 26, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Could it be that what might be bad for the preferreds is good for the common? The up move began just after the news of the first insider sale.... altho I am not sure I see the logic of that correlation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 26, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    I hate to give up the yield, especially the tax free aspect of it but I am no longer comfortable holding them after the recent insider sales. Porter was a big advocate of them in the past and I can't think of a good reason for the insider sales, at the substantial discount to par and with the healthy yields, unless there is some heightened risk that the dividends may be suspended/deferred. I may be entirely wrong but I've seen what happens to the price of a preferred whose dividend gets suspended and it's not pretty.

    Just not worth the risk to me. Others may feel differently.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not Good News!!!

    by dd_avenger Jan 16, 2015 8:17 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 16, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    So you created your id two days ago just to post here and bash GST? Gee, I wonder what screen name you used to use?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wunderlich/Jason Wangler on GST

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 15, 2015 6:29 PM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 15, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    I think that, overall, Gastar Exploration will do well. In fact, I think the money raised gives Gastar a lot of liquidity, at just the right time, with the market closed up. The company's going to struggle along with everyone else, but it now has a good balance sheet to get to the other side. And it has a lot of nice assets. The assets are all held by production, so the company does not have any capital commitments to worry about.

    TER: How did Gastar do that fundraising? What was the mechanism?

    JW: It was a straight common equity deal, as many companies have done in the past. Gastar just happened to do it at the end of the window so to speak. In fact, it paid down quite a bit of debt with the funds.

    TER: In closing, what's your advice for an oil and gas investor in these times?

    JW: If I'm in the chair, I am looking to nibble at high-quality names. Probably not trying to take full positions in anything, because it seems that every day any stock could be down 10%—not necessarily because the company did something wrong, but because the market is just not good right now. Prices are very, very depressed.

    These price levels don't make sense from a long-term perspective, and I think there is a lot of value in these names. If you can hold your nose and stick with some good, high-quality names, there are a lot of big returns to be made over the next 12, 24, maybe 36 months.

    TER: Thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 15, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    TER: What are some of your favorites?
    Jan 15
    JW: Some of my favorites are Earthstone Energy Inc. (ESTE:NYSE.MKT), Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR:NASDAQ), Gastar Exploration Ltd. (GST:NYSE) and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK:NYSE) on the E&P side. On the oil field services side, I really like Seventy Seven Energy Inc. (SSE:NYSE), Superior Drilling Products Inc. and Natural Gas Services Group Inc. (NGS:NYSE).

    A lot of these companies share similar traits. I like having a decent gas content because with most commodities depressed, having diversity through two commodities is a good strategy. I don't know which commodity is going to do better going forward, but having the ability to deploy capital to either one is a strong position.

    Having a great balance sheet right now is about as important as anything, given the fact that companies have to batten down the hatches and try to survive. Having too much debt or having the issue of not being able to meet commitments, whether financial or operational, is a death knell. Gulfport Energy, Gastar Exploration, Earthstone Energy and Chesapeake Energy all have that ability. From the services side, it's the same thing. It's about being able to maintain your current position, generate some cash and wait for a better day, and that's what I think those three services companies can do.
    **********************
    TER: Your 2015 earnings per share estimate for Gastar Exploration went from $0.80/share to $0.22/share. Is this company going to have adequate revenue to justify the fundraising it did at the beginning of the downturn?

    JW: The fundraising is already done, so that ship has sailed. At the same time, as I have said, our earnings estimates across the board changed pretty dramatically because of the lower commodity deck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Percentage of GST from NAT GAs

    by chris749a Jan 12, 2015 2:44 PM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 13, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    3rd qtr
    Revenues from liquids (oil, condensate and NGLs) represented approximately 80% of total production revenues in the third quarter of 2014, compared to 58% for the third quarter of 2013 and 72% during the second quarter of 2014, excluding the benefit from an arbitration settlement.
    2nd qtr:
    Revenues from liquids (oil, condensate and NGLs) represented approximately 61% of total production revenues in the second quarter, or 72% of revenues excluding the benefit from the arbitration settlement. This
    compares to 48% for the second quarter of 2013 and 60% for the first quarter of 2014.
    1st qtr:
    Revenues from liquids (oil, condensate and NGLs) represented approximately 60% of our total production revenues for the first quarter of 2014 compared to 65% for the fourth quarter of 2013 and 50% for the first quarter of 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short interest nearly cut in half

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 13, 2015 8:16 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 13, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    I've never been in the camp that finds high short interest to be a bullish sign. Short squeezes that drive stock prices much higher are occurrences that are few and far between and usually involves short interest levels much higher than we had here.

    On the bright side, at least a lot of shorts don't see worthwhile downside from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 13, 2015 8:16 AM Flag

    Shares of Gastar Exploration (NYSE:GST) were the target of a significant decline in short interest in December. As of December 31st, there was short interest totalling 3,945,276 shares, a decline of 45.2% from the December 15th total of 7,200,334 shares,
    ________________
    So much for any short squeeze.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 9, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Nice favorable divergence... for a change

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor by theseriousinvestor Jan 9, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    I think it is inevitable that further capex cuts will be announced. GST was among the first to announce a cut in capex and that was in early Nov. when oil prices were still in the 70's and NG was in a better position too. What I am not sure of is how, at these low price levels, the market will react to a further cut. I'd like to think it is priced in but that's probably not the case. On the other hand, conservation of capital in this environment could be viewed by some as a positive notwithstanding some impact to production.

    Any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2015 hedging

    by gwhutten Jan 7, 2015 1:07 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 8, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Another nice percentage bump today but still only takes it to $2.57 after going up 32 cents

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Erroneous negative news out

    by theseriousinvestor Jan 7, 2015 1:04 PM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 8, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    The editor has responded to my email and just updated the story.... the headline reads "Judge grants dismissal in Gastar fracking lawsuit".... ta... daaa! lol

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 8, 2015 8:30 AM Flag

    "Got any better forcasting ideas?"
    Jim O'Neill, former GS Asset mgmt. chairman does- the 5 yr. forward oil price.
    My conclusion is that a good indication of this moving equilibrium does exist: the five-year forward oil price, or the amount paid for guaranteed delivery of oil five years from now.

    In my ongoing quest to become better at forecasting, I began, a few years ago, to pay attention to the five-year forward oil price as it compares to the Brent crude oil spot price, the price of a barrel of oil today. I suspect that the five-year forward price is much less influenced by speculation in the oil market than the spot price, and more representative of true commercial needs. So when the five-year price starts moving in a different direction than the spot price, I take notice.
    *********
    The drop in the spot price of oil has taken it significantly below the five-year forward price, which remains close to $80 per barrel. My hunch for 2015 is that oil prices may continue to drop in the short term; unlike in the past four years, however, they are likely to finish the year higher than they were when it began.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2015 hedging

    by gwhutten Jan 7, 2015 1:07 AM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 8, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    Actually, GST's ng pricing was up over nearly 20% yesterday. The bad news is that only took it to $2.25. With more frigid temps around, we should see another nice bump up today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Recent Insider selling by director

    by marcellusgashound Jan 7, 2015 7:40 PM
    theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 8, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    He is the poor guy that made a 14K share purchase just before the secondary was announced and took a bath on that purchase. His Dec. 29 sale of the same amount may be a tax loss sale. Will be interesting to see if he re-buys 31 days or so from now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theseriousinvestor theseriousinvestor Jan 7, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    How well did they do predicting $48 oil?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

GST
2.43-0.21(-7.95%)Jan 28 4:03 PMEST

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