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Conceptus, Inc. Message Board

thesmalls 379 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jul 17, 1998
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  • thesmalls thesmalls 3 hours ago Flag

    10K is due Tuesday and an extension gives them 5 days

  • Reply to

    What profit number for 2014

    by jernst1959 Mar 28, 2015 12:25 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls 3 hours ago Flag

    Jernst - what is your time horizon for those 200K shares? If I wasnt as heavily invested I would have been buying the $0.16s for a quick flip. I dont expect any upside volume that would be sufficient for me to liquidate.

  • Reply to

    Somebody just bought 83,300

    by jernst1959 Mar 27, 2015 1:40 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls 3 hours ago Flag

    How is lack of news appropriate?

    How can you remain positive on the future of EECP based on the last three years? PSK JV aside, what has the company done and followed through with concerning EECP? Stonybrrok? India? Europe? CMS consultant?

  • Reply to

    What profit number for 2014

    by jernst1959 Mar 28, 2015 12:25 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls 3 hours ago Flag

    Apparently that is a very tough concept for him to grasp.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Announcement

    by greenmtnguy67 17 hours ago
    thesmalls thesmalls 3 hours ago Flag

    Unfortunately - I dont know what to expect tomorrow and that is a MAJOR issue with this company/mgmt. There is no transparency and Ma/mgmt cant provide basic guidance or know how to evaluate ROI on something as simple as a tradeshow.

    My guess is they will have a profitable 4Q due tbackloaded commissions but they wont overcome the earlier losses to to be profitable for the year. They will be very "confident" in PSK Venture and will be confident about MobiCare as well. Same platitudes about EECP and Biox. There will be no questions from external analysts and they will cut the Q&A short due to the stumbing over basic questions.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Announcement

    by greenmtnguy67 17 hours ago
    thesmalls thesmalls 4 hours ago Flag

    Feel free to make me a private offer for my shares. The current "market" certainly cant absorb them and you obviously are not backing up your confidence in the future with aggressive buying. Sellesr remain on the ASK.

    I am sure most on here know the difference between whining and advocating. If not - then they will probably not do well in the market long term.

    You have nothing to add but cheerleading. That so far has done nothing to flip the buy/sell imbalance.

  • Reply to

    Somebody just bought 83,300

    by jernst1959 Mar 27, 2015 1:40 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 28, 2015 8:24 AM Flag

    Not a day trading stock. They wil play the swings. Wait for a momentum run. Get in early and out before it drops. All of thise buying right now - what is their price target? $0.25 for 50% ? $0.32 for a double? How long will they wait until the momentum stalls and the price tanks again? Look at the price surges and coinciding volume. What is the company doing to make sure today's buyers will be around for 2, 3, 5 years instead of bailing on the next run?

    I have been around here longer than most (although there are some pre-PEECH guys still hanging on). I have a larger position than most insiders and know several other shareholders with even larger positions than myself. Not a single one has any confidence in current mgmt/strategy. Where do you think the volume on the sell sidehas been coming from the last 18 months or so? The company bought out Dempsey to keep him quiet.

    Why should I stick around if there is another large volume run (million share days for a couple weeks)...? If thecycle is no long term appreciation holds - why fight the swings? What has mgmt done to convince me that I SHOULD remain vested for the long term appreciation?

    Too many on here simply dont understand the market or how investors are manipulated on several fronts. Unfortunately - the CEO may be in that group as well. Little shareholders will never see long term appreciation without heavily vested, resolute large long term shareholders. The company is and has systematically driven them away.

  • Reply to

    Somebody just bought 83,300

    by jernst1959 Mar 27, 2015 1:40 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 27, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    If I was a trader - I would ha e been buying in the $0.16's for a quick flip. That is going to be a MAJOR impetus to moving the stock forward. It is being viewed as a good trading stock (with predictable swings) and a bad long term investment (company cant sustain gains). History has been on the side of the traders. In the meantime, mgmt and insiders publicly lambast true, let's ng term investors at the shareholder meeting and have created the VERY issue they accused the investors of by not LISTENING to those that viewed this as such.

    The company put themselves 2-4 years behind by their actions the last 18-24 months.

  • Reply to

    Resistance

    by prestonbrida Mar 27, 2015 10:11 AM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 27, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    resistance is coming from substantial shares coming onto the market through convertible debt offerings that are maturing that were signed at various points last year. there is more supply of shares than demand to buy them and that overwhelming supply drove the price down. it was further fueled by rampant shorting due to the high likelihood of demand being weak and low risk/high reward to try and short out of existence.

    the good news is being offset by the past issues of performance and getting products to market/large contracts signed and the dire financial situation.

    if you are looking to get in this, fully understand your risk/reward tolerance, your time horizon for return on investment, your expectations for return, and thoroughly understand the motivating factors behind the buyers and sellers - specifically the sellers.

    i am a long term investor in the company and continue to add to my position both on a share basis and percentage basis (of Outstanding shares based on best estimates). it is very high risk but i have done my own due diligence, spoken with people that sell/have sold the two products, and done my own market research (limited) so i like the prospects. i also am looking at this as a long term horizon 2+ years. if fundamentals change - i will adjust that outlook and position accordingly.

  • Reply to

    2 more counties

    by thermo32 Mar 25, 2015 10:59 AM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 25, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Anyone that doubts hese products exist in stores should call the stores directly.of course - I am sure the stores dont want to be inundated with investors calling for verification but it certainly puts that argument to rest. ABC confirmed on corporate twitter account. I have seen it in stores in the midwest where it isnt even marketed.

    Product could have been in a flea market but that says nothing. If it is expired or wholesaled out from a store/distributor closing - it could end up there. But how that is supposed to be proof the company doesnt sell elsewhere t is absurd.

  • Reply to

    The hangover shot is going to rock, IMHO-FB

    by thundersteel_03 Mar 25, 2015 10:49 AM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 25, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    The recovery shot definitely makes more sense in c stores and other places where people atop for their coffee in the morning on their way to work after an unintended binge the night before. I have used it as well. Mostly for meetings after being out with clients or colleagues late the nigh before. Where i used to doze off or become completely unfocused on the meeting around 10 this shot would push it back to around 2 pr so where I would naturally start to drag around 3 anyway. I have found the recovery shot works better for me than the energy shot while driving late at night and worsk better than the Dr. Pepper which adds at least one bathroom stop.

    However - I never used energy shots or drinks prior so I cant rdirectly compare. I tried several AFTER being invested in HJOE and 5HR definitely gave me serious jitters within 5-10 min. I assume that goes away if you drink it regularly but why would someone WANT to get used to that?

    Company needs to get more details out on Asia and finalize retail group in US and that should flip the supply/demand balance after the dilution ceases.

  • thesmalls thesmalls Mar 25, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    not when he is blatantly and repeatedly violating the TOU set forth by Yahoo. neither this forum or Yahoo has a solid means of moderation or preventing these boards from denigrating into being completely useless. the individual is not here for debate/information exchange and his badgering, harassment, and obscene language all violate the TOU. every post that violates TOU should be reported. if posters allow this sort of posting to continue, the board will be abandoned by anyone that who is interested in really discussing/exchanging ideas about the company and will be left with nothing but that chirping.

    i dont know nor do i care if the guy is being paid to bash, he has an established short position, or if it is personal - regardless, the posting is destructive. for me, i can quit posting today and it wont affect my income, investment decisions, or portfolio in the least. but, there are many who get a start from these boards or come here for ideas and if it is nothing but bashing and destructive posts - the forum will be rendered useless.

  • Reply to

    2 more countries

    by casey7883 Mar 24, 2015 5:57 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 25, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    now that was funny... :)

  • Reply to

    Don’t worry be happy

    by smallswasright Mar 24, 2015 4:01 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 24, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    i have a fan on the PSWS board...

    looks like Hicks still hasnt been able to line up sufficient convertible debt yet. when he does, the R/s will be enacted and the conversions will begin. he will need that money to satisfy his consulting agreements with himself and the shares to unload the rest of his shares owned outright and through his capital group.

  • thesmalls thesmalls Mar 24, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    and when did the only "2" employees dump...? please provide one example of them selling stock.

  • Reply to

    Predictions

    by jn121 Mar 24, 2015 11:53 AM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 24, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    yes. any of those large chains in any of those categories would be using EDI with suppliers due to logistics. i cant speak directly to the planograms but i have to imagine all would have a rather specific process for including new products and launching them in stores. i have customers who have cstore chains (on the smaller scale - 5-10) who use a much less sophisticated process for evaluating new products and determining where they would be placed but they still have a specific process. customers with larger reach (have one with 180 cstores) do have specific planogram type processes.

    i am NOT involved in that side of their business but have spoken to several of them to get an idea of what they go through to evaluate/place a product like these shots. the one with 180 stores did see their booth in Vegas last year but did not stop by as it was the end of their last day and there was a line. it wasnt his forte and he was only doing it to do some DD as a favor to me but he did say the two times they went by (earlier in the week) and then their last day it was crowded. they went by earlier in the show and was going to catch them on the way out but both times they had lines.

    so - going from 180 to 11K stores- the level of sophistication and difficulty in getting a product placed/launched obviously increases dramatically.

  • i just read a number of posts on iHub. not to gain any insight but to get an idea of where the traders are heading. even for that medium - i am amazed at the venom and anxiety over this stock by day traders who feel they have been taken by mgmt.

    while i have been and remain a long time investor - it amazes me (again, even for that forum) that these traders feel like they have been swindled by mgmt when it appears rather clear that most of them did NO due diligence. the dilution has been in play since LAST MARCH and the risk was the company could drive revenues from the new product/launches to eliminate the debt before it went toxic. it became dire at the end of last year that the risk was going up that they would not get out in front of those notes. the speculation at the time then turned to would investors absorb the supply coming online enough to keep the freefall from happening. that obviously did not happen and once the death spiral started - there was little to prevent it from bottoming hard.

    the company has not hid the dilution nor the dramatic impact. i have yet to have a single basher/naysayer/etc show how the insiders are profiting off of this freefall. how are they cashing in, lining their pockets, or fleecing investors...? unless they are getting paid third party/off the balance sheets - it isnt happening. the amount of misinformation and attacks is absurd. even more absurd, is the attacks from shareholders who feel burned but are doing nothing to change their position (either sell and take the loss, wait it out, or leverage your position with cheap shares).

    with $3-5MM in revenues by year end - the company can eliminate the remaining toxic debt, fund cash flow, and buy back shares while lining up traditional capital. of course -that is only viable if one believes the intent in the first place. but - if one doesnt -why would they be sticking around for a miracle...?

  • Reply to

    What a Joke!

    by ejdb7 Mar 23, 2015 1:42 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 24, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    i referenced that earlier. it just depends on who and how many are absorbing those new shares. at a certain point -they will be tapped out, will have lost faith/interest in the company, or decide to employ their capital elsewhere with a clearer line of site to ROI. at that point - you will have capitulation and a freefall in the price. doesnt mean the company cant or wont make it but it certainly gives pause to new investors in buying in now.

    the history of the company is the biggest deterrent to investing followed closely by the complete lack of transparency with results. every initiative has been a disastrous failure (with respect to investment and resulting stock price).

    Mach5 - no follow up on trials/failures
    Smart Watch - no follow up on failure to launch/market acceptance
    Jifu acquisition - in case there are those that follow this board and didnt read the 8K the company filed on the Jifu acquisition - they should. Its been dissolved (but there was no discussion/notes on why - my guess is after independent accounting - the $4MM in revenues that were pushed forward in 2013 were deemed not to be which would be supported by the rapid decline in 2014)

    so with the dramatic and abrupt swing towards lottery - there just isnt any credible history to suggest this time will be different.

  • Reply to

    I will go with prior comments

    by jernst1959 Mar 23, 2015 1:03 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 23, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    i wish i had your confidence in both the numbers and the market's reaction to them. then again, if i did, i would be buying heavily now as well.

    more importantly - why arent the insiders buying heavily? we know they are being given hundreds of thousands shares as performance bonuses but why are they not backing that up with buying on their own or - doing another buyback while shares are so undervalued?

  • Reply to

    What a Joke!

    by ejdb7 Mar 23, 2015 1:42 PM
    thesmalls thesmalls Mar 23, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    you still would have 30-35% of your original investment you could salvage. that is not a total loss. depends on how valuable the loss is to offset gains.

    going to be tough for this to move forward with the black hole of information, ever changing focus, and crushing convertible debt that is coming due. that being said - there has been a large portion of supply absorbed already. will the buyers continue to absorb the shares coming into the market or sit out and wait for a lower price point?

    company has done its investors NO favors let alone managed their investment dollars.