ejdb7 - in light of the wall of opposition facing long term appreciation - what fuels your belief that the company will do well long term? i am genuinely asking. i may be missing something obvious or you may have had conversations that contradict what is obvious to the investing public.
with the DD i have done - it is at best a speculative short term play where one could leave house money on the table in case it does break out. beyond that - the company has routinely and systematically disappointed investors and once again, made a Crazy Ivan with the lottery acquisition to further obfuscate their core business (which at this point i wouldnt even know how to describe what their core business is)
big difference between marketing claims such as that and adverse affects. for an example - google the red bull class action lawsuit and look at the actual damages to the company. very similar formula for success as 5Hr except they relied on the extreme sports demographic to market.
the award isnt even a dent in their sales/profits and the majority of it goes to the attorneys. there is a big difference when being pursued by AG and states than private practice but this settlement would surely be used/referenced for precedence on both sides (viability of claims and amount of settlement).
5Hr will try to claim "puffery" to a large extent and the states will claim willful misleading.
HJOE needs to walk a fine line between claiming they are healthy and not like 5Hr while not getting lumped in with all energy drinks. wont be easy. good news is they have very specific ingredients/claims that the rest of those in the public eye do not seem to have.
it is hard to predict bottles sold per day per store on a national basis. soft launch was used to gather information on a variety of stores/formats with a variety of demographics and traffic.
however, it is certainly in the best interests of the company and long term investors for teh company to remain conservative on their estimates/guidance. better to exceed and surprise than to fail and surprise. if the national launch is scalable along the same numbers provided for by the soft launch - then i would agree that the $5MM target will be low. they could easily do $1-2MM on the recovery shot alone with the tie in branding to the energy shot and robust production.
they were around 90-100MM shares in 2012 when they did $2MM and were trading between $0.20-0.30. that was probably fair based on the growth between 2011 and 2012. also goes to show how even something selling that well very quickly can be derailed.
i replied to a poster who directly asked me for my thoughts on the recent PR with the $5MM revenue target/guidance. i wont repost here as it will take 4-5 posts with the character limit yahoo has assigned.
if anyone doesnt follow iHub board and is interested - i will split up and post here.
they are still a year behind on reporting. that should be the bare minimum for a public company.
according to last quarter filing - they have one partially completed machine in inventory and not enough parts to make another one. cash on hand isnt sufficient to produce another one. how are they going to generate sales without either? no announcements of capital/reorgs. what left is there?
Finally – compare and contrast the information and support provided in these posts with Ferrari and his constant attempts to discredit me as a market playing short or disgruntled employee. Challenge him to support his own ridiculous (by nature of no support and complete opposite of what the market is valuing at) price predictions that fluctuate wildly. More importantly – challenge his investment horizon as he has provided personal price targets and two days later has sold about 1000% below said targets. I see that as “pumping” or “hyping.” He suggests providing objective, market and filing supported opinions and models, and overall price projections based on such as “bashing.”
If my assumptions/assertions about mgmt/company viability are incorrect, the share price has room for very substantial increases (based on models presented). But, that can be said for almost EVERY stock in existence. The real measure is how much risk is associated with that future/potential return and if there are better risk/reward scenarios to employ risk capital until the reward becomes clearer and/or the risk decreases.
I welcome any constructive debate as this is the intent of message board forums such as this. I also thank those that have privately shared their own DD.
While I remain highly critical and skeptical of this company/mgmt (due to the above and what I have previously argued about their history and failed launches that are never discussed afterwards), I have also laid out (not in this much detail) the future potential should they make it. I think their history suggests latching on to “hot” markets and stringing along naïve investors about the long term potential is a major red flag. The lottery business fits the same mold. Very difficult to do any due diligence on the actual business that was acquired to determine where any real value exists.
As I have publicly declared several times on this board and others, I have never shorted this or any other stock. I have never dealt with this company, mgmt, any employees past or present, in any professional or personal regards other than direct communication attempts via phone and email as DD for my investment purposes. To date, those communications have been mostly fruitless. Strauss has routinely dodged or ignored requests for information or clarification on filings that would NOT violate disclosure rules. I have also left voice mails at company listed main number and email asking for information on who to contact to purchase the CCWatch and those have also gone ignored. How do you generate revenues if you don’t respond to basic questions from potential customers on your products…?
Don’t take my word – do your own DD. Call the company and try to get info on CCWatch (or Mach5 for that matter). Another investor did and has shared his information. Contact Strauss and ask him about inconsistencies in filings on the smartwatch release that I have highlighted in past notes (inconsistent timelines, launches, revenue expectations, etc). Ask him about the declining revenues since Jifu acquisition (that you wont get a specific answer but if/how he addresses those types of questions can provide just as much information).
The variable/convertible compensation mgmt has just assigned/granted itself is further fodder to attack the viability of the organization. Show me (1) example of a legitimate company providing the option of taking salary in a convertible share format.
Now – if I am wrong, and these are only models and assumptions based on reported facts in figures in filings, past history of company/mgmt, and years of experience with microcaps, then there could be a very good opportunity for rapid price appreciation. However, if the company does turn around the revenue decline and show real gains – I would argue that a long term investor would have the ability to take a large position at a higher price point with substantially less risk. If one can get in at $0.10-$0.20 for a long term gain (based on future growth potential that is substantiated by one or two quarters of REAL growth in top and bottom line) of $1.50-$2.00 share – they will still have a very solid return while absorbing a fraction of the volatility and price declines the company is poised to see in the short term.
Markets are created by varying views on risk/return and investment horizons. Those that have the risk capital to put in play for a long time with highly speculative investments will usually see the highest returns (over a long period of time). However, they will also see more total (or near total) losses (on individual investments) along the way as part of the risk in going for those long term, highly rewarding plays. On the other end of the risk spectrum is grandma and grandpa taking 1.5% on a savings account or 2-3% on long term bonds where the only risk is death or catastrophic collapse of the US Government.
These obviously show a glimpse of the potential assuming IF the company reaches $13.3MM month and maintains GMs/RORev.
However, if one looks at the trailing 4Q of revenues – they are:
These are declining and NOT increasing. Due to these declining revenues, no past history provided on JIFU prior to acquisition (as it was private), and the constant dilution (from Jifu and convertible debt), the stock price has been hammered and the market is not willing to assign a current industry multiple let alone a growth multiple.
This is further exasperated due to never turning past announcements into growth. Mach5 and CCWatch – accounted for what appears to be $10-15K of revenues in past quarter based on quarterly report:
“Our revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2014 totaled $629,448, an increase of $613,420 or 3,827% from $16,028 for the three months ended June 30, 2013. This increase in revenue was primarily due to the acquisition of Jifu in the middle of 2013, which generated revenue of $617,588.”
The company is showing consistently decreasing revenues on last dilutive acquistion, no announcement/details provided on a major launch almost a year ago now (12/1/13), and now shareholder will take a 100% dilution hit on another, unproven, undetailed, acquisition and are expected to “trust” mgmt that revenues/profits will follow.
That is why I remain very skeptical of long term prospects and consider this stock good only for short term trading opportunities. Until the company definitively proves it can take an idea from concept to profitability and shows sustained revenues with a clear trend towards profitability, it will remain mired in volatility and taken advantage of by traders and hedge funds that will use the (for now) relatively low OS to manipulate and swing the price back and forth with a consistent long term downward trajectory. This is basic market mechanics.
I ran some general numbers for current and future Fair Value (FV) projections based on trailing 4 quarters revenues and earnings and comparing to future revenues brought on by lottery revenues.
USD/RMP = $1/6RMP
Monthly Increase in REV = RMP80MM or $13.3MM
Company will maintain trailing 4Q Return on Revenue (RORev) at 6.74% (I use RORev to model furture earnings since there is no concrete GM numbers provided by company).
Industry PE compared to Apple at 15.75
Current share price of $0.03
CUrrent OS is 79.8MM according to Yahoo
Future OS includes 80MM for lottery dilution and @10MM in future convertible debt (still remaining)
Does NOT include convertible salary that company announced in last 8K
With those assumptions - here are the figures based on the last 4Q providing a "fiscal year"
Trailing 4Q numbers: $4.2MM REV and $284K EARN
EPS = $0.0036
PE = 8.43
RORev = 6.74%
If one assumes a PE of APPL is a fair "target" to compare to and uses 15.75 as that number - than the PE Multiple to Industry Average is 1.87. If that is applied to current share price - than it would provide a FV SP of $0.056 (which is just below where it topped out last week).
Now - if one applies RMP80MM/month into the revenue equation and uses the same RORev estimate to assume what earnings could be obtained - it would provide the following numbers:
Future OS = 169.9MM shares
Future 4Q= $57.5MM REV and $3.88MM EARN
EPS = $0.0228
PE = 1.31
Now - if one applies the same target PE of 15.75 - the multiple is 11.99 and would provide a FV SP today of $0.36 (based on current $0.03 SP).
From here - one can start giving "growth" multiples on industry average. For example - aggressive growth companies are often assigned (by the market) multiple anywhere from 5 to 20 times PE (think Facebook) and can be over 100. If one assigned a modest growth multiple fo 5x - one could multiple the current and FV SP by 5 each and get today at $0.11 and FV at $1.80
Sure - I can when I get to my laptop.
Give me a conversion rate to USD.
The 80MM shares are known. Its the convertible with no restrictions that will be the rub
Please provide price vide proof of those increasing profits and the multiple revebue streams. Accroding to last 10Q - virtually all of the revenues came from Jifu acquisition which would preclude any coming from Mach5 orthe smart watch.
Further - since Jifu was private - there is no way to determine if their revenues are increasing or decreasing as there is no history to compare them to. There is also nohistory on profitability. Shareholders dont k ow if they bought a growing or dying business. Same with Chinese acquisition. No real facts on what was purchased or an 8K to detail the particulars.
However - shareholders do know there will be an additional 80MM shares added to OS not to mention the runaway convertible debt the BOD offered to themselves in lieu of salary.
If this is a "screaming BUY" why has your share position not changed when it was the same screaming buy in the $0.50s, $0.20s, $0.12, and then at a nickel...?
I think many would classify that type of price target (quadruple) with no facts and no personal buying as "pumping" or "hyping"
If there is a settlement - there will be some official document from court proceedings "closing" the case and terminating the suit. The terms of the settlement would more than likely not be disclosed and would remain confidential. That is completely separate from being a "material event." In a company this size and the significance of this suit - any and all results are material and should require disclosure once any agreement is reached. They can not discuss and aspects during but once finalized, it should be disclosed that the suit hadls been settled and some terms. More than likely they would be vague as if it is favorable to HJOE - the mfg would probably insist on confidentiality of the terms to not encourage others to engage legal action with similar complaints.
did any on here take advantage of the opportunity presented? did you look at the two week/monthly chart and see the well orchestrated spike?
i see ferrari didnt respond to my questions/posts about price targets and exit points this time around or how it makes sense to integrate the new acquisition with the existing business.
no one addressed that massive dilution likely to occur with the officers now having the ability to take salaries as discounted shares with few restrictions. how does that help the long term shareholders...? do you have that option?
i only have an ancillary idea of how this show will produce immediate orders. i know it is much different than the trade shows i deal with where it is usually just the start of a long process. from the guys i have spoken to - they will place orders/cut POs right at the show. i had a couple of customer go to the show and one got back to me. i asked him to stop by the booth and ask some questions and give me his general impression. i told him i was an investor and left it at that.
he said he walked by twice and stopped once. he said both times he walked by (second day of show the first time was 30 min after opening and the second time was about an hour before end of the show) they were busy. second time he said it was "crowded". he had planned on asking a few more questions but they had too many people there and they wanted to leave (ie - get to Vegas"ing"...) and still ahve a couple more stops to make. he said there seemed to be a lot of natural enthusiasm by the guys in the booth and visitors. he said a couple of guys were talking about orders and terms. he was supposed to send some pics of the booth/traffic but i havent received any. the other guy hasnt gotten back. i didnt want to harangue them since they both had a lot of stops to make during the show.
seems consistent with what they have presented on social media and another account i received from a distributor. however, i wanted the opinions of those without any vested interest to weed out bias/expectations
iHub went beserk this weekend. I expect a lot of volume and volatility this week. Traders will provide some exposure and introduce the stock to a wider group of investors. Hopefully when the spike is over and they have moved on - we have a significantly higher base and a wider, stronger set of holders. If that happens - the volatility in the short term will be welcome. We really arent going to have concrete numbers until the 4Q results which wont come out until the end of March.
Hopefully they will provide a summary of the show results and provide some rough guidance going forward for year end and 2015. Even if they said something along the lines of "we expect to surpass 2012 revenues now that production has been resolved and the successful launch of the energy shot" - it would be very well received. If they used adjectives such as "handily, easily, significantly" prior to "surpass" it would even be better.
i am not concerned with the week to week gyrations as long as the company continues to put out strong statements and there is capital financing in the works that is very bullish
i have to believe that the comments coming out of HJOE on the NACS show are providing substantial support to the price and increasing the confidence of long term holders and those getting in now.
i agree with TA. while it can be very useful as a guide and a way to model behavior - the absolute adherence to it will ensure you are looking in the mirror to make decisions about the future.
if the company continues to get more bullish about its official and unofficial statements - the price will continue to strengthen. if the company announces financing that is non dilutive that will eliminate or substantially mitigate the existing/remaining convertible debt - that will also be a major shot in the arm providing confidence.
i also believe a substantial amount of the dilution was absorbed by long term holders like myself who will not be playing the day to day swings and should provide some stability as the price bounces up and down. it wont remove the volatility but it will help iron out the larger swings.
i was hoping the company would remain under 200MM on the OS but the positive side is it is still only 150MM float which i would guess 5-10 outside holders alone probably control 25-30% of that alone based on my conversations with others.
finally - why are you excited about the lottery business? how specifically does the company monetize this opp? what are the terms of the deal so you can even start to model a return on the investment for the company that would result in profitability and eventual value to shareholders in the terms of price increase (short of bumps)?
you were very excited about Mach5? still excited? why not...?
you were even more excited about the smart watch and consistently posted the expected market opportunity for wearable computing and surmised what type of market share XCLL could take of that $20BB market. still excited? why not...? what happened to their 12/13 product launch? ever find one for sale? speak with anyone that has one? if not- why not? i have. interesting conundrum going on in that regard.
i know they are for sale and have been. however, i can not ascertain (yet) how many they have or if the supplier is being straightforward with their numbers. more importantly - why has the company NOT reported these sales as revenues or addressed them? are they hiding the numbers because they are too low and it was a flop? or are they hiding them because they are accumulating shares thruogh intermediaries and giving themselves a blank check with convertible shares...?
ferrari - you say you are very excited yet you havent changed your share position in 6-12 months (unless you are misleading again like the last price target).
if this is such a good opporuntity - why arent you buying hand over fist? cash/capital strapped? why? did you buy way too high? did you not sell a portion of your position to protect your capital even when it was rather obvious that there was no support?
should someone listen to you who offers no evidence, no proof, no models, no viable path to get to your price targets or those who rely on facts, published filings, historical trends, past violations of trust by mgmt, etc?
however, keep pumping away. pump harder. i want another trading opp to get in and make a quick profit. at this rate, barring any new PR, next stop for price is around $0.012 where it should become a buying opp again.