Hyper at this point it is just mechanical. Futures stalled where one would expect them to stall.......26's.
The day got painted very nicely in terms of direction. Have to go with the painters. Short game was over for the day at 12 17 PM est.......then the squeeze was on and started at around 2 15 pm.
The same thing over and over and over all the time. It is all about direction. Multiday direction is obviously down but in a bear market you can get crazy rallies.
And......what type of new low. 52 week low? 2 year low? That is a pretty tough metric to gauge things with. I simply look at the volume weighted trend. Oil went right up to the 252 day level then backed off.
Depends on what stocks make the new lows and how they are weighted in the index. Also, some stocks revert to book value and tend to just stay there for awhile.
That is not exactly true and even if it were true.....it does not matter. Either you can spot a trend or you can not.
Every day it is either in range or in trend. Today is a trend day up. Market did not stay under 63.50...trend began UP. All there is to it.
about 10 44 an eastern standard time. Many look at vwap.......fine........but can you see the price trend developing? If you can not you will get killed every day. Trend down would have required price stay under 59's and it did not. Go with the trend and you make money.
There will be temporary lows, however, if one was to simply take a look at where prices are now, everyone that is LONG ABOVE THIS YEARS OPEN, is wrong. Snap a line there and you get many many people that are simply underwater. And of course......all the buyers above last years high......
What this proves is how many people in the world are simply uninformed and uneducated when it comes to buying something called a "stock".
People haggle and negotiate over something called a "car" but when it comes to buying a "stock" they simply put them selves into the hands of some one called a "financial advisor".......best fraud I have ever seen.
So what you are saying is........it's not the best idea to lower rates so "they" can borrow more money at a lower interest rate so "they" can buy stocks........
You are correct...however........if you look at the book value per share of a company...........any market price that is below or above the book value per share is pure speculation anyway.
This is the real fraud......the fact is that collusion street, somehow, is able to control enough shares of a company to set the stock prices until there is a traitor amongst the ranks.
There is no honor among thieves.
this is now the norm. The moment that the INVESTMENT BANKS were converted to COMMERCIAL BANKS this became NORMAL. That is why using statistical information about where you would get long and where you would get short became even more necessary.
Today for example..........there is not a chance in hell that I would have started shorting under 1870;s.
Hyper you are spot on. THe morons think that this is all about shorts when it is not. This is what happens when money is borrowed thinking there will be a greater fool. Eventually it ends.
I believe that there are times when a standard deviation is ridiculously stretched out and can go no further......and then prices reverse. THe ES has a reading of 9.75 handles per std deviation. Snap backs are normal. So what do you do? RESHORT above 2004.00......and look for a touch of 2000 even,
i am of the opinion that there are still way too many stocks that are hyper inflated........any stock that is trading at a price of more than 2 time book is not a good bargain.
Does mutation exist? And if mutation exists, is that not evolution? Does adaptation exist? If adaptation exists is that not also a form or evolution?
Gold futures have to break past all the longer term supply lines.......1098.70 or so is first area to get past and hold. If gold is really going to get going again, I think 1170 ish is very key......then it can move about the cabin. The chart is still broken and needs to get repaired.
This is probably a blow off on it. But the stock has been in an uptrend. THis is always one of wallstreets tools........sometimes it is better to not be involved.
You could tell that something was about to get the smack down.........Cramer is doing the same dance he did when the Fourhorsemen were around in 2000........now it is FANG......
FB, AAPL, NFLX and GOOG........same stupid show to get a whole new group of baggies.
Funny, massive volume on the gold futures, almost double the norm.......and now short it?...this is why I do not watch CNBS ever..........the charts show you the trend. And the trend in gold has been down as it has been in oil.
Many moves are counter to the trend.......and those are the real opportunities.
Sorry about that loss. I thought that you were wrong on the trade when you put it on. But I did not want to give an opinion. When you get a moment, an easy way to look for a trend in price, (not volume based) is to set up a daily chart with some linear regression curves on them. I use the following settings.
3 day, 5 day 10 day 20 day.
And the big kahuna is the 252 day level........if you take a look at this you will see that the agenda is to always try to get prices back up and over the 252 day LRC.......then put a 252 day simple average on your chart.......the only thing that happened was some selling. IT was nothing at all.
A true long term down trend can be seen when a 252 day LRC crosses a 252 day average.
Look at oil......tells you all you need to know........it always works like that.
None of the LRC levels even went NEAR the 252 day vwap or average.......this market is not busted yet..
By the way, there is no overbought or oversold.......there are only extreme statistical levels. No indicator in the world will ever be accurate about overbought and oversold......they are all set up the same way and totally useless.