Why does 11 am matter? If you look at the PRIMARY trend line it is still pointing down. I happen to like linear regression channels and basically every one above 3971.25 on the nasdaq futures is underwater. I also expected a retrace down towards 3932.75 which has not happened but, 3940.25 was a lock.
Yes I was thinking that. When you start seeing articles about why shorting is bad you have to think what's up with that. Same on the long side. When you hear don't buy stocks.......same thing.
If all the stocks in the DOW were to retrace to their all time highs at the same moment, let's say right now, the value of the dow assuming there was no change in the dow divisor would be 19976.89. Technically it has already happened if you consider the parts of the dow have already hit all time highs.
So the only way to get there is if there is a compensation for the stocks that simply will NEVER go back to their all time highs that are in the index.
This is why it is so silly to listen to any predictions. Just work the math. So now if you consider the TRUE RANGE of the DOW as it stands, the all time LOW on the CURRENT DOW is 633.27. Clearly the goal of all the dow component changes was to make absolutely sure that the dow was pushed up and over 15837.36 which is a standard fib level of 78.6 % of the range of the dow.
So let's say you really are a fib trader. Then the zone from 17117.11 to 17164.84 is resistance.
Date US Real GDP
Mar 31, 2014 15.95 trillion
Dec 31, 2013 15.94 trillion
Dec 31, 2012 15.54 trillion
Dec 31, 2011 15.24 trillion
Dec 31, 2010 14.94 trillion
Dec 31, 2009 14.54 trillion
So, is there growth? Nope because you have to consider how much debt has piled up to go basically no where since 2007.
HYper what really really alarms me is the Sovereign debt. Now I have not done the math but there is probably some formula that predicts just how much tax revenue there has to be to cover the interest obligations on the federal debt and the spending and so on and the tipping points.
But here is the rub on that.
It is my understanding that the Social Security Trust fund owns about 9 trillion or so of the debt???? So really if that fund is not paid the interest it is owed it seems kind of insignificant. But, just who is supposed to buy those securities if they had to be sold? There are massive longer term problems that will be coming but these clowns still have lots of time to push this around.
I think what you are not seeing is that "they" have nothing else. There is nothing for "them" to get their fingers into the way they did from 2003 to 2007.
Scamstreet was interfering with the real estate market and selling garbage to the uninformed. Well for the most part that set of products has dried up. So the electronic markets for the most part is all they have and there are no investment banks in the classic sense of the term.
Add in a commercial banking charter and it's all set. Stocks were never meant to be supported via the commercial banking system. Investment Banks were pretty much private entities with partners.
When this blows up, I think it will all blow up. That was the reason for Glass- Stegall.....to stop this stuff.
I think what you fail to understand about scamstreet is their mentality which is, IF I GO DOWN YOU ARE COMING WITH ME.
You are correct though, 2008 will look like good times.
I expected defense just above 93.72. I do not use moving averages. I use medians. The 20 day median price is 93.72. On the same token, buying above 95.20 to start going long was dangerous. Notice what happened there today?
No one with a brain was buying IWM above 120.77. Extended.
Hyper, I really do not understand why you think that interest rates are going to matter at this point. There is not a rate in the world where I would loan a dime to the government at this point because I know that they simply could never pay it back. Suppose rates went to 15 %......really, so what......the gov can not pay it back, ever. So in the end there is really no true market for gov debt......if there was.......there would not have been QE. The party is already over and was over the moment that the FED engaged in QE.
Stocks just take some time to hear the phrase, "Last call".
And if you really want proof that the party is over, then run a 252 day average volume on the SPY.....compare 2012 volumes on a 252 day average to now.....transaction volumes have fallen......this is shouting the truth of what is happening and I think lack of participation is telling us everything we need to know.
The ONLY WAY that stocks will ever move is with collusion. First of all there are rules regarding ownership. If you own to much, then the stock loses its free trading status and you are held hostage to the 144 rules. So you MUST ACT as part of a group.
Everyone that supports a stock has access to DTC sheets and NOBO lists. Now if you had them too, since they show not only inventory, but also short positions and where they are, you could also collude.
But guess what, it's not easy to get that information.
Also, keep in mind, MONEY MANAGERS are PAID BASED ON PORTFOLIO VALUE, not based on TRUE CASH GAINS.
That is the true scam. You let a stranger manage your money, and they get paid FEES while you have no idea what is really going on.
What would happen if all money managers were only paid based on CASH GAINS and got no PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT FEES?
I suspect that prices would barely move.
Here is a better reason. LONGTERM statistical outliers are not to be purchased above the median price.
Bollinger bands just about give you what you need to know except they use averages instead of price medians.
If you know that 3797 in the NQ is a 252 day 2 standard deviation outlier away from the median price, why on earth would you start buying it today?
Read up on that topic and then you can see why you do not buy so far away from a median.
Let's cut down all the trees and then burn all of them. One does not need to read the data to know that deforestation is bad.
A good analogy would be to have everyone have one lung taken out and then let's see how they feel.
Deforestation is a human activity. Cut out the lungs of the planet and you have #$%$ air, or no more air I guess.
Deforestation is worse then all the coal burning plants and cars. The extraction industry loves the fact that the arctic has warmed. It gives them access to more stuff to extract.
There is a quiet little tug of war that is likely to turn into something more regarding the arctic and who controls what up there.
Average Joe does not really care. Average Joe just wants to watch Dancing with the stars and every other dumb reality show that is out there. The fact that these types of shows are still around tells you about people in general.
It only reprices higher when it is advantageous to do so. You are in we are out, you are out we are in. That is why.
Do some reading on Z scores and standard deviations. I suggest you use long term sampling and avoid moving averages. They will sell you all they can 2 standard deviations away from longer term median prices.
I will NEVER BUY 2 standard deviations above a 200 day median.
My 200 day sd2 today is 3777.50. SHort above it plain and simple.
Want my ELD's then email me and I will send to you and anyone else that happens to want it.
Kinda silly....NO ONE and I mean NO ONE should have been looking to get long above 92.56 on the qqq. Not today. My guess is he has no idea what a z score is and what normal distribution is.
Same on the SPY. Starting a long above 194.29 was high risk.
Pretty funny stuff from whatamarket today. God forbid he looks at a linear regression channel....
How dare you imply that pink slime is not food.
Moral of the story is, why make predictions when you can simply trade what you see and know who is in a losing position since the losers must pay you.