Selloffin321, I had 208.80 today as the level that I think is relatively extreme today. Keep in mind that the volume is low and low volume days are the best days to push it up.
So it can easily overshoot that.
Well then what I should learn from Pickens is to not really pay attention to the opinions of others and trust my own research. What I saw on oil futures was very simple. Put a line around 98. If you were a buyer above that line, the further away from the line you bought, the higher the risk.
Ok I understand that, but technically the YEN is probably worthless anyway. So, they have created massive reserves or worthless YEN to buy stuff.......but since it is worthless fiat buying things when the truth unfolds then what happens. There should be some type of implosion.
Pickens was also incorrect on Nat GAS was he not? As I recall he fessed up and said he lost quite a bit betting on nat gas and looking for a conversion to it away from gasoline.
Ok we know that BOJ is just a paper printer. What do you think will happen there. By the way I had 208.07 on the SPY as a level to not start going long above in PREMARKET.
Do you happen to know the size of the debts that are owed and to what entities those debts are owed? I think that is the big question. As I recall the housing bubble created a debt of about 2 trillion or more that was transferred back to the taxpayers.
You are correct. The truth is that these markets only track who is in the most vulnerable position. It could be longs or shorts. Every account can be kept track of. That is what the computer networks do. "They" trade against the imbalance of those who are unable to cover their margins. It is that simple.
The real issue when speaking about an asset is, what is an asset?
An asset by definition is something that generates future economic benefit.
For something to generate future economic benefit, it has to do one of 2 things.
It has to generate enough positive cash flow to offset its cost basis. If it does not do this it is not really an asset.
If it does not generate positive cash flow to offset its cost basis it has to appreciate in value. Appreciation of an item such as a stock that does not pay adequate dividends to cover the cost basis inevitably leads to a fall in price when the price gets too high relative to the yield. So naturally the term for an Asset that has gone sour for a holder is called, A BAD INVESTMENT.
So, by definition to say a Government has an ASSET is pretty much an oxymoron. The only way SOME government assets generate future economic benefit is to use them to steal other people assets that generate benefit for the original holders.
My guess is that there are no government assets other than the military holdings that could actually be used to generate benefit for the United States. So, with that being said, the debt associated with these items completely eliminates their asset value anyway.
With that being said, the USA can not ever pay back its debts and that of course leads to the truth that the holders of US debt are not really holding assets either. Dunrunnin is unable to understand this concept about what a true asset is. This is why I do not look at a stock index as a measure of anything.
Do you know how many people simply put money into stocks with absolutely no idea what they are buying. Just talk to people who have no idea what a stock index is, and how they are calculated.
I spoke with a CPA yesterday who pays a financial planner $6,000 a quarter. So I asked her if she knew how the DOW was calculated. Not a clue. She had no idea about components and how they change. Same with nas100 and SNP500.
But she told me that her clients were not doing well in general with their individual stock picks.
As I continue to say, the indexes mean nothing. They are simply the advertisements, the published information to get the attention of the general public.
The game is very simple. The indexes can be protected much longer than just one stock and they were built and created since 2008 to withstand pretty much anything other than real long selling.
Corners get broken by those who are part of the team who say they are not selling when in fact they are. Consider what happens in a pack of Buffalo. The alpha does get taken out.
It has nothing to do with VALUE. It is simply about what accounts can be blown up. YOu could not have paid me to short near 2038 on the futures........NOT yet.
Stock indexes mean nothing. NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING. The rigging is simply how the indexes are created and this new DOW and NEW SNP was rebuilt intentionally to withstand an attack.
Japan is using worthless currency to buy stocks. On the same token.....this is not a crash. Lock limit down......that would tell me something and this is not even close to lock limit down.
I am looking at a long term chart of the SPY with the 2009 low as my starting point. And I am wondering.......what the heck is the spy trading above 160 a share for anyway?
Keep it simple and stop using a 200 day moving average. Use a 252 day average since there are only 252 days in the trading year. Then use a 252 day linear regression curve. The 252 day average is around 114.10 and the 252 day linear regression line is 113.89
The curve is the trend and the average is the consensus of value. Put a line on your chart where the curve PEAKED........that was 119.46. The push ups over that level have been all market manipulation by the bulls trying to get people to bite. It is so easy to see when you use the inter-relationship of a linear regression curve with an average.