You mentioned you shorted shares, wondering how many you actually shorted today.
That's the key always buy in slowly and average in the shares. Hey, maybe we will be buying some more in the $4's with the way things are going. I just know from last quarter that it bottomed around these prices and never looked back.
So what I expected, it is a few of you shorting the hell out of this stock. Yeah, you will push it down a lot but when you cover I don't think you will find it so easy.
I'm going to buy a small amount around here, and will buy a small amount lower. I think the rest of us should take advantage of these low prices and buy a small amount. I don't think the shorts will keep selling 10-20K at a time to push this stock price down when they have to cover.
There are some huge dumps today, I wonder if its shorts or people cashing out. mrsports, I'm also thinking about buying a little at these prices. What are you considering buying?
We may only have a very short time to buy in at these prices.
You haven't commented much lately. Just wanted your take on people expecting it to pull back to $4's, or even $5's. Do you really see this happening?
The more I look at it the stock dropped to the current levels because of a few shareholders panic selling large amounts of shares. It seems some even shorted the stock.
What I notice is that the $6.00 resistance is too strong and even with that 18K dump Friday there are buyers ready to suck up all the shares at these lower prices.
Who really knows what will happen, but just wanted want you see happening.
Hard to honestly say. I'm thinking also $5.80 at the lowest, but I don't think it will go that low or I would sell. I think it is just ridiculous to go that low right now when it has 3 profitable quarters under its belt. When the company was taking huge losses it was trading mostly low $5.00's.
The company has proven itself also that it has it's hedging under control and is even in a favorable position now. Last quarter everybody thought it was going to have a huge hedging loss, even I wondered to an extent, but was the only one saying that they had plenty of time to get out of it and they did.
Other than the 20% lower sales, which I think should be expected with the doubling of coffee prices, I think the company has a lot going for it. They also are not sitting on any hedging losses which was the reason for the sell off last quarter.
Really, when you add everything up here it doesn't make sense for it to be this low. I'm thinking it will turn around and I missed my opportunity to rebuy my sold shares below $6.05.
Jayhardy, I can't believe you sold all those shares instead of just holding.
If you were the person dumping over 10K at a time as you admitted to that 18K dump and other large dumps, then you're more likely the reason it dropped as low as it has. Looking over the volume spikes the stock would have bottomed around $6.20 to $6.30, but your heavy 10K dumps pushed it down below $6.00.
Nobody would have dumped big at this price level and in a way you gave your shares away. Most scared investors have sold out last quarter and sold out the day of current earnings. There won't be big dumps anymore to push it down below $5.00, which is just ridiculous as EPS would be ridiculously low at that level.
The stock is way oversold now and will start to rise again once the dumping stops. Volume is going to really dry up now and be very low, buying your shares back at reasonable prices won't be fun. If coffee prices start to rise again, good luck.
I'm a bit confused, basically by selling half, and shorting the other half you basically don't own the stock anymore.
ml_expert, I agree with you that I see it possibly drifting back to $5.80's, but a crash to $4.80's I can't really see happening.
That would make the PE ratio ridiculous and it was barely $4.80's when it had million dollar losses for multiple quarters.
But who knows, right??
I think the problem right now is that coffee prices almost doubled, you're going to have a drop in sales no matter how you look at it if you have a commodity that doubles so quickly. Lets face it when the price rises quickly for everyday products you use you slow up consumption and hold off purchasing it.
They also had to face the fact that a lot of large retailers didn't raise their prices, even one big retailer only raised prices I believe In July.
They actually have positive revenue, they are trying to branch out into a couple of different areas. I also like the tea idea because they probably know that there was demand for tea from customers who would like to purchase everything from one vendor. I can't see what they can be doing better, there just a coffee supplier.
I also like the fact that they didn't screw up hedging like a lot of you guys assumed they have done last quarter. They are probably in contact with the coffee suppliers daily and they know the inside information better than most.
If you look at the volume spikes you will notice lots of large sell orders over 10K yesterday and today one for what looks like 18K.
You have to wonder why someone would be unloading such large amounts when it would be in their best interest just to wait because it will almost certainly rise before next earnings. There won't be any news that will drop this stock so why rush and sell for such a low price.
Do you think this is manipulation with the intent to push the stock price down?
Would like your thoughts here.
Well that would be nice of course, but JVA doesn't need to do any of this for the stock to go higher. I just want to make this clear.
It has to just have profitable quarters with good sales numbers.
Of course if any of what you mentioned happened, we would be looking at a stock of $30 dollars or more, but I'd be happy with $8.00.
Looks like typical shake down we have been seeing. There going to squeeze shares out of panicked share holders again. Hopefully people are a little more resilient this time around and hopefully some people pick up some shares while they are doing this.
There just going to shake out weak hands again with the stock. I knew earnings would be about neutral this quarter. Honestly, if I had the earnings in advance I wouldn't expect a 14% drop or much of a drop at all.
There going to continue the shake down. Just the same replay as last quarter. It will rise up again in anticipation of next quarter.
At least last quarter they had everyone scared of million dollar hedging losses. That isn't even the case this quarter. This is just crazy.
This tells me that they do not expect the stock to fall much from this level or they would have waited. They are probably surprised it has fallen so much.
Pick up the shares while they are cheap. If it falls lower I will even pick back up some shares I sold at around $6.05 if I can get it for what I sold it for.
I think people need to pick up the shares when their cheap. I don't think the shorts are going to mess with the stock at this price because the downside is very limited, but the upside can be pretty huge.
This is like last quarter, no really good reason why it should have fallen so low.
Another point is the company even bought back its shares last quarter in the mid $6 range. This tells me that the company doesn't expect the stock to fall much further or they would have waited. I am sure they are even surprised about how much it fell.
Hedging is something you have to do. Say they get a customers that orders 100,000 pounds of coffee for a set price to be delivered over the next 6 months. They have to hedge to lock in the prices at the current market value .
Very normal and smart for a company to hedge.
You have to understand, this stock is very easy to manipulate. Just listen to all the people on here panic selling.
With the low average daily volume of this stock it is very easy to drop the price. Then you have all the panic sellers selling out cheap.
I can't blame the people manipulating it. But I do blame all the people selling their shares at a loss because they are scared.
Coffee sales are going to be down for a while because they almost doubled in price, this should be understandable. The company will turn itself around. Lots of big coffee retailers only raised their prices very recently, JVA still has to deal with these other large retailers selling their coffee cheap, but it can't last forever.
Don't forget that this company sold for $5.00 when it had huge net losses for multiple quarters. It is almost selling there again and it has a lot of profitable quarters.
I"m not sure if you're looking at it correctly here. Hedging is part of their purchasing strategy, its not like a one time influx of cash or something. THey buy their inventory based on hedging.