Good call on SA. Never really looked into that one - 750M company that has run from $3-$15 this year with ZERO revenue since 2006 and a whopping 10m in cash. Trades at 3.5x book value, yet IAG somehow manages to trade under book value.
I think many sold a long time ago and others like me are trying to keep their emotions in check. This stock is STILL trading under book value, still has pending Boto news which could be significant, and with POG now at 1320, can actually produce earnings. I would say we are now in the second or third inning of IAG's recovery and there is plenty of upside left. I sold calls on less than 5% of my position today and have hedged by shorting certain silver stocks, which I find offensively overpriced as a group.
They painted the 3.86 close price with a 8,339,751 share transaction at 4:06:12, an entire SIX minutes after close. It's proceeded to trade up to 3.96 in AH. This happens once in awhile on options expiration day.
IAG can't break through 4. It's very concerning, considering that through this entire rally in POG, IAG is one of 5 or so miners that couldn't even get back to book value. 90% of the sector is at or way above book value right now.
I still maintain that IAG executives are trying to suppress the stock price as evidenced by BS PR's or downright silence. As POG rallies to 1300, who the hell gives a flying #$%$ about Monster Lake? Give us Boto news which is way overdue, give us Westwood news, give us Q2 progress (I expect and demand that IAG turns a profit in Q2).
May 2, 2016 405.90M
Dec. 31, 2015 393.42M
March 31, 2015 391.30M
Dec. 31, 2014 376.92M
Dec. 31, 2011 375.92M
May 5, 2011 374.75M
After radio silence for weeks, that's the news we get? Who cares about Monster Lake?
Where's the long-awaited Boto update?
How about a Westwood update? Just about the entire company and a few dilutions hinge on that one?
How about a Q2 update? Considering POG is up about $70/ounce from Q1, I fully expect IAG to make money in Q2.
How about a Steve Letwin retirement announcement? That would be the best news of all.
If anything, I'd sell 890 calls against the position. You can get near 50k cash IMMEDIATELY just by selling the Sept 4 calls.
I personally think the stock will be much higher than 4 by September (think it gets there by the end of the week), but at least you'd get 50k instead of 10k by selling outright. If the stock crashes, you have 50k to average back down.
I agree with you. I was livid when he diluted again and was very close to throwing in the towel at the time. The poster is correct though - what the hell is the plan with all the cash? He's clearly not paying back debt, he's certainly not buying back shares, there will be no dividend, he's not making an acquisition now that gold is over 1200, his little fiasco into hedge gambling will not be replayed again. It's almost like he wants to keep the cash at a certain level simply for vanity purposes and if that means boosting outstanding shares from 380M to 405M, well then, who cares? F the shareholders.
There's no evidence that more flow-through shares were issued beyond the one earlier this year and the one in 2015. I absolutely HATE dilution because it kills earnings potential and in the case of IAG, I know it will never be combated with a share buyback or dividend in the future. The purpose of the dilution was supposedly to fund the development of Westwood, but one can certainly question if the $30 million or so in cash raised from it is worth having a share base of 405M now vs 380M a few years back. I personally don't think so.
I hope people saw the recent johnny_meatballs post calling for $2.86 and scooped up more IAG shares with both fists.
I haven't seen a message board fade as good as him...EVER.
But that assumes IAG trading at $2.26 a few months ago was a correct and valid price. I would argue based on IAG's current book value of near $5, that IAG trading at $2.26 a few months ago was a gift and trading at the current, $3.41, is still a gift.
Whether one likes book value or not, the fact is that 3/4 of the sector trades over book value and IAG is part of the 1/4 that doesn't. Boto being announced as a multi-million ounce deposit or Letwin getting his #$%$ sent home, is enough, IMO, to get IAG to near book value even if POG stays in the current range ($1225-1300).
I would go IAG, AUY, NGD in that order.
IAG is cheaper and more undervalued by any metric, has the best balance sheet of the three BY FAR, and does have some long-term potential if:
1. Westwood works out
2. Sadiola can be expanded cheaply
3. Boto (news forthcoming here) and Merrex JV turn into something big
4. Essakane's LOM is expanded.
Operationally, IAG is clearly the worst of the 3. And the CEO is the worst in the industry. But at the end of the day, all I care about is return and IAG has basically performed in line with AUY in 2016 and both have outperformed NGD significantly, and that's WITH a loser CEO in place. Imagine if they trade him in for a competent replacement!
IAG has much more upside than the other 2 and with a few proper moves (including CEO tossed in the garbage can) can actually become the darling of the sector because it has a great combination of high production, lots of cash, and million+ ounce deposits that can produce within the next 3-5 years.
their niobium mine for $1.5 BILLION last month? The niobium and phosphate business included in the price generated EBITDA of $146M in 2015.
Our POS CEO sold a larger niobium mine for 1/3 the price. Many on this board were outraged at the time for the ridiculously low price fetched for IAG's best asset. Imagine if our CEO wasn't a complete moron and was able to get the extra billion for Niobec? Instead we get annual dilutions to make up for the shortcomings, no debt reduction whatsoever, and the continued refusal to remove the worst CEO in the history of business.
From $4.05 On May 19th to $3.36 today. POG is now below the Q2 average (~$1255) and headed the wrong way, but that can easily change. I expect Boto news within the next month - whether that has any effect on share price remains to be seen.
If one is bullish long-term on gold, it was an absolute no-brainer to add more shares this morning.
The math is fine, but it doesn't paint the entire picture. That AISC number is likely to go way down over time with success at Westwood (800's AISC, 200k ounce annual production) and further gains at Essakane when solar is added there. If that is accompanied by a rise in POG, it becomes very obvious that IAG is laughably undervalued here.
Also keep in mind the market is currently valuing Boto, Merrex JV, Monster Lake, Sadiola expansion, Cote Lake, and every other development project at ZERO. Cote may very well be worth zero, but the others have the chance to become very prolific producers at very favorable prices.
I am shocked at the number of long-time shareholders that are missing out on this run because they fear it has run too much too quickly. The stock is still trading UNDER book value. Find me another miner with this level of production, this liquidity, and this potential. You won't be able to, which is why a major would be smart to scoop IAG up now!
ATW and WLL are great movers, regularly delivering 10% or more on an intraday basis, both long and short. I've made more trading them than IAG this year. The volatility in those stocks make IAG look like GE.
Remember when this bad boy was trading in the 500M range, yet had over 600M cash?
Westwood alone could be worth 1.5B+ if it really can produce 200k ounces a year for 20 years at AISC in the $800's.
What's not to like about the deal? $540 million in one shot is like 90% of the revenue they would have realized if the contract stayed in place through 2017. Plus they are saving $100 million in cost. No brainer.
NE has been taken out to the shed and beaten lately, which is why I have been loading up the past few days. This company goes the way of crude prices. Nothing more complex than that. if oil recovers to the 50-55 range, NE is conservatively back to 15+. If crude drops to 30, NE is back to the 6-7 range.
Yes, this was the biggest message I took away from the conference call. At some point, they will announce that their largest producing mine of 350,000+ ounces will have an extended life by years and that will indeed be a very material event. With Essakane's life extended and Westwood in full production by 2019 and perhaps Boto/Diakha/Sadiola operational within the next couple of years, the map to 1 million ounces of annual production becomes pretty clear.