Tue, Sep 30, 2014, 6:19 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

thethirdchimp 31 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 0 minutes ago Member since: Sep 5, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp 1 hour 0 minutes ago Flag

    4. Announcement regarding progress of JV.
    5. India goes ahead with massive investment in infrastructure
    6. China slowdown proves illusory/short-lived
    7. Natural gas prices spike as demand forces coalesce and winter freeze impedes production/supply

  • why bother selling at this point. and yet, heavy volume selling again today. surely the only ones left by now are the die hard longs ready to hold for the next three to five years

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'm calling a bottom here.

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 25, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    why 10... when coal cycle turns, this will sell at least book value, current $16 and probably will be much higher when coal recovers, certainly by 2018.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Relentless sell off and at multi decade lows...

    by thethirdchimp Sep 25, 2014 10:26 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 25, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    what could management say that has not been said. they just provided a very detailed investor presentation early September... there is nothing to say... Peabody CEO made some statement right after the GS downgrade and it accomplished nothing... actually make them look weak... just got to work through the downturn, hoard cash, cut costs.. it what they are all doing and have been saying for past year... nothing more to say

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any new news

    by kookookloc3 Sep 25, 2014 10:28 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 25, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    China slowdown.. Goldman Sachs downgrade of BTU... Murray coal owner recently talked really gloomily about coal market and predicted his company would be among last standing. .. also, lots of anti fossil fule publicity coming out of the climate change conference that has been going on in NYC and the NY Times has been featuring articles about climate change and viability of alternate energy all this past week. There might also be a coordinated bear raid on coal right now... feels like it anyway... amazing that so much heavy volume selling at multi decade lows

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • this sort of sell off is more typical of a company that is going bankrupt or in an industry that is doomed. that seems to be the current market perception. From what I can gather, the company has managed their costs and financial situation pretty well and have sufficient liquidity and no unmanageable debts until 2018 or 2019, depending on cash burn... but operationally viable for at least 2-3 yrs. Coal is about 40% of world wide electricity generation and expected to stay that way for years , possibly sinking to 30% in a few decades. We know that Japan is importing nag gas like crazy and will not resume nuclear power at pre #$%$ levels for decades. us is building one and slated to build maybe three more nuke plants. germany is burning more coal than they have in years. we also know that nat gas, the key competitor to coal use in US is going to rise. manufacturing boom will hit full steam by 2016; exports of nag gas begin in 2015 and pick up in 2016; panama canal expansion will be complete late 2015 or early 2016 making asian export from gulf cheaper with supermax transport of nat gas and coal. if i had more money I'd be going all in coal stocks right now... this sell off is insane, relentless and probably influenced by confluence of factors, Goldman Sachs downgrade, Murray gloom and doom talk, the climate change convention in NY, china slowdown... this is painful, as I am long and very invested in coal right now but to sell at multidecade lows in too insane and the reversal cuold be just as violent and relentless as this sell off... a very cold winter is on it's way... a JV announcement is on it's way... a Republican senate takeover is possible....i wish i could load up

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • given the book value and ample liquidity through 2018 and worldwide demand for coal despite current glut, you'd expect value investors to come charging in... there is a lot of divestment going on by many sovereign funds, college endowment managers but i thought most of that had already played out... we are now at a price where every single investor is underwater... the reversal could be violent especially if we get a bad winter or JV announcement... i'm tempted to sell all my shares and buy naked call options ... i am a gambler

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 10, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Iron ore glut due to excessive production of iron ore could possibly be good for met coal. right? cheap ore means cheap steel means more attractive pricing for steel products leading to boost in demand for steel-based products and thus, boosting demand for coking coal

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stuck in Range for Another Year

    by thethirdchimp Sep 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 9, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    from what i've read, china wants to reduce air pollution in big cities. they are embarking on huge coal gasification projects. i do understand that they want to reduce import of low quality coal. however, with advanced scrubbers, low sulfurr coal is not necessary. in fact, it is preferable to make the investment in advanced scrubber systems and then buy cheaper high sulfur coal which often has higher btu ratings. this is what is happening right now in US as high sulfur Illinois Basin coal has been stealing market share from both app and PRB coal at a fairly rapid rate, according to the recent Bloomberg article. I'm pretty sure the recent down turn in ANR, ACI and BTU is related to this news. I will remain long ANR because I believe that the supply/demand dynamics will turn in one or two years and then it's up up and away. Holding for at least book value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Probably old news for many but new article from Mother Jones points out that methane leaks from gas drilling is a worse scenario than burning coal as far as climate change/greenhouse effect. The implications should be game changing but not likely, at least, in near term.

  • Reply to

    Stuck in Range for Another Year

    by thethirdchimp Sep 8, 2014 11:20 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 8, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Why the suspense? I'd like to hear about the plenty of reasons. I'm open to sound reasoning.

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Sep 8, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    As I warned just about a month ago, when ANR spiked over 4.00, don't get too excited because the stock price will not move up in any serious sustained way until the market believes in a return to profitability. There will be no profitability this year, that is already a foregone conclusion and ANR management says as much. Joy Global just reported bad earnings which they attributed in large part to reduced Capex in coal mining. They further stated their expectation that the supply glut in coal, met and thermal, would persist until at least mid 2015. In my opinion, this and other coal stocks will be stuck in a range for another year. We seem to be at a balance point between the outgoing scared and the incoming long term value investors. Money can still be made while you wait as the supply/demand rationalization plays out. Sell out-of-the-money covered call options and use the proceeds to add shares. As you add shares, you can sell yet more covered call options. It compounds and you can make some good money. I've been doing it since 2/2013 and have only got sold out once and was able to reenter at an even lower cost basis, while further increasing my share count. My aim since 2013 has been to accumulate shares. capital appreciation has to wait. I will stick with this strategy for the rest of 2014 for sure and will get increasingly cautious through 2015. I believe in the coal rebound and a new long term up cycle but it is all a question of timing... very tricky of course

  • Reply to

    Why are we down?

    by benstevens75 Sep 5, 2014 1:20 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Sep 5, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    Looks like a response to recent Bloomberg article. Illinois basin coal stealing market share, selling very cheap and production is actually increasing and huge capex going on there as we speak. right in heart of coal burning country. cheap dirty coal turns out to be an advantage as all coal burning utilities need to install scrubbers anyway to meet new EPA regs. Illinois basin coal has higher heat content than PRB coal. . more than 150 years of coal there at current level of consumption. app coal, at least for u.s. consumption, appears doomed. market seems to be responding to implications.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So long folks

    by gte196y Aug 26, 2014 1:50 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 27, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    This is an extremely bullish sign. I think I will take up a new position in BTU right away.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why This Billionaire Still Believes in Coal

    by thethirdchimp Aug 20, 2014 6:00 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 20, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    rising demand, at least, through 2020, rising by 25% to 4500 million tons. that's glencore's take. investing nearly 5 billion to increase production is a lot of conviction. I just thought it interesting. here's a link
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/20/why-this-billionaire-still-believes-in-coal.aspx

  • Interesting Motley article. Glencore is making a contrarian bet. Planning to invest nearly 5 billion to boost coal output and anticipates 21% increase in production through 2016. The CEO is from So. Africa and knows his business... hold and accumulate

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    those are reasonable catalysts in near term. in fact, I plan to avoid selling covered call options in month of November because of the elections and also by that time ANR might give more details about JV. but the real supercycle and the giant 40-70 dollar move comes when the company again shows a profit which I have no doubt will happen as the supply-demand dynamic rebalances. coal miners, though, are very very stubborn and slow to cut supply and govt's damn slow about investing in infrastructure... but both are happening gradually before our eyes. recently read that India plans to spends a trillion on infrastructure over next decade. the USA , though, is the one to watch. next presidential cycle could bring a massive investment in infrastructure (e.g., bridges, water mains) and if they can lower the damned corporate tax, we could see private capital invest huge in big steel projects, e.g., pipelines, factories.. met coal will be the main driver for ANR

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Why Appalachian Coal Can’t Compete With Colombia

    Consider: Why Appalachian Coal Can’t Compete With Colombia
    Deep in U.S. coal country, people are suffering economically not just from the White House’s determination to reduce America’s dependence on coal, but also because of competition from an unlikely place: Colombia.
    To be sure, an abundance of cheap natural gas is responsible for most of economic hurt in mining states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. Record natural gas production from shale has given utilities a cheaper, and cleaner, fuel.
    Also, as Republicans are eager to point out, environmental regulations have put a gradually tightening noose around the neck of Big Coal. With new limits on toxic emissions, and looming new restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the coal industry is facing a period of structural decline.
    But surprising data just released from the Energy Information Administration shows that Appalachian coal is losing market share to cheaper coal from Colombia.
    Despite being one of the largest producers of coal in the world, the U.S., confusingly, also imports coal. That’s because imports from Colombia can be cheaper, at least for the large market on the U.S. East Coast.
    There are a few reasons why.
    First, labor is cheaper in Colombia. Second, maritime shipping is cheaper than rail to some places on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. For example, moving coal from Appalachia – from mines in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania -- to Florida adds $26 to a ton of coal, while importing Colombian coal adds just $15 per ton.
    Beyond that negative, the coal seams of Appalachia have been mined for over a century, and consequently, the richest coal deposits have been mined out.
    Another advantage of Colombian coal is that it burns relatively cleanly, with low sulfur. For utilities seeking to comply with increasingly stringent limits on air pollution, low-sulfur Colombian coal can provide added flexibility.

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    I'm not short. I have a ton of shares and have been accumulating shares for well over a year now. Your reading too much into my stance. It is exactly as I say. I anticipate depressed coal prices for at least a year and no profits for 2014, 2015 and possibly into 2016. Investors are forward looking but not that forward looking. I just don't see the stock moving up much until coal stock prices recover and profitability is more assured, especially given current debt load of most coal companies. I'm long and strong and have more shares that I want to say. What is the problem with my argument? Can't I be long a stock and also negative on short term stock price prospects? What is your bull case for the short to mid-term?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ACI
2.12+0.04(+1.92%)Sep 30 4:02 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.