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Alpha Natural Resources, inc. c Message Board

thethirdchimp 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2015 11:49 AM Member since: Sep 5, 2007
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  • I would expect some sort of announcement and clarification from management at this point. They are either tongue tied imbeciles or perhaps geniuses, staying quiet and covertly scooping up dirt cheap debt. I suspect that they are imbeciles

  • Reply to

    WSJ ARTICLE--CONFIRMATION OF OUR WORST FEARS :-(

    by cccbondguy Jun 30, 2015 9:17 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jun 30, 2015 10:25 PM Flag

    Why would they default on a measley 109 million with about a billion in cash and liquid assets and no subsequent debt due until Dec 2017?

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Jun 30, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    They have 109 million coming due in August and they have nearly a billion in cash and liquid assets. They have nothing due next until December 2017 and that's for 263 million. I don't see bankruptcy near term... don't get this panic and I am not sure what this restructuring entails

    Sentiment: Hold

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jun 19, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    They have over a billiion in cash and can easily pay off those early bonds and the bond prices would probably quickly rise if market got wind of open market buybacks. They should be buying up the real cheapies in 2018 or later

  • Reply to

    I think Chapter 11 BK is a real possibility now

    by lenyw Jun 10, 2015 10:45 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jun 10, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Peabody has same issue and worse debt problem but they are up today

  • Reply to

    110 million market cap

    by topline1 May 28, 2015 10:08 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp May 28, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    that could take many years and is full of hassles, pitfalls... buy up now... debt and equity is dirt cheap... consolidate management, eliminate interest payments and start turning profits now

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • if an energy company w/ strong balance sheet (e.g., Koch, big oil, Sasol) were to buy up the distressed debt and cheap shares from ACI, ANR, WLT, etc., they could have any or all of these companies for relative chump change. without debt interest and new leaner and merged management they could probably make a profit even at historic low coal prices or at least break even/stop cash drain and just relax until coal mining industry completes the necessary shrinkage and cycle turns up... they could make a fortune. unless u believe coal is done but from what I gather, still generating nearly 40% of worldwide electricity and will for a long time... this oil and nat gas glut and low prices is a blip in the history of energy prices... 7 billion people and counting and they all want to drive, sleep in comfort, turn on their appliances... met coal always needed and new uses for coal coming on line every day and getting cheaper, e.g., coal to liquid, coal to gas, coal to chemical.. the consolidation is way over due... get ready

  • Reply to

    110 million market cap

    by topline1 May 28, 2015 10:08 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp May 28, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    if an energy company w/ strong balance sheet (e.g., Koch) were to buy up the distressed debt and cheap shares from ACI, ANR, WLT, etc., they could have any or all of these companies for relative chump change. without debt interest and new leaner and merged management they could probably make a profit even at historic low coal prices or at least break even/stop cash drain and just relax until coal mining industry shrinks and cycle turns up... they could make a fortune. unless u believe coal is done but from what I gather, still generating nearly 40% of world wide electricity and will for a long time... this oil and nat gas glut is a blip... 7 billion people and counting and they all want to drive, sleep in comfort, turn on their appliances... met coal always needed and new uses for coal coming on line every day and getting cheaper, e.g., coal to liquid, coal to gas, coal to chemical.. the consolidation is way over due... get ready

  • fraction of times past. someone could buy 3/4 of all US coal reserves, largest reserves in the world, for chump change.... far out, huh... especially given the fact that coal will provide at least a third of electricity needs of the world for decades to come. remember peak oil and remember recurrent oil crises over past fifty years... well, they will be back... two billion people still crying for access to electricity, rolling power backouts in S. Africa... and wait till ng prices start the long upward trend as LNG exports kick in...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • new ceo of Rio gives it 3-4 years before thermal recovers... i think anr has sufficient liquidity and saleable assets to endure... can easily manage debt thru 2018... 2019 and 2020 are the challenge... of course, met coal could recover sooner which would be a game changer for anr

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • to keep bond prices down, allowing continuing debt repurchase at pennies on dollar. They have ample liquidity for three years; it looks like natgas could rise rather quickly w/ ongoing production cuts, lay off; nat gas demand set to spike w/ LNG exports beginning to ramp up end of 2015; also lots of new industry that uses natgas feedstock coming online, e.g., methnol production, fertilizer production, chemical production... with rising nat gas prices, coal prices to follow ... ANR will also get more for their natgas assets in coming years, if they need some cash... ten bagger in making... just gotta be cool... buy buy buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ANR
0.23820.0000(0.00%)Jul 15 4:01 PMEDT