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Best Buy Co., Inc. Message Board

thethirdchimp 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 8:34 AM Member since: Sep 5, 2007
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  • Reply to

    So long folks

    by gte196y Aug 26, 2014 1:50 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 27, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    This is an extremely bullish sign. I think I will take up a new position in BTU right away.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why This Billionaire Still Believes in Coal

    by thethirdchimp Aug 20, 2014 6:00 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 20, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    rising demand, at least, through 2020, rising by 25% to 4500 million tons. that's glencore's take. investing nearly 5 billion to increase production is a lot of conviction. I just thought it interesting. here's a link
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/20/why-this-billionaire-still-believes-in-coal.aspx

  • Interesting Motley article. Glencore is making a contrarian bet. Planning to invest nearly 5 billion to boost coal output and anticipates 21% increase in production through 2016. The CEO is from So. Africa and knows his business... hold and accumulate

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    those are reasonable catalysts in near term. in fact, I plan to avoid selling covered call options in month of November because of the elections and also by that time ANR might give more details about JV. but the real supercycle and the giant 40-70 dollar move comes when the company again shows a profit which I have no doubt will happen as the supply-demand dynamic rebalances. coal miners, though, are very very stubborn and slow to cut supply and govt's damn slow about investing in infrastructure... but both are happening gradually before our eyes. recently read that India plans to spends a trillion on infrastructure over next decade. the USA , though, is the one to watch. next presidential cycle could bring a massive investment in infrastructure (e.g., bridges, water mains) and if they can lower the damned corporate tax, we could see private capital invest huge in big steel projects, e.g., pipelines, factories.. met coal will be the main driver for ANR

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Why Appalachian Coal Can’t Compete With Colombia

    Consider: Why Appalachian Coal Can’t Compete With Colombia
    Deep in U.S. coal country, people are suffering economically not just from the White House’s determination to reduce America’s dependence on coal, but also because of competition from an unlikely place: Colombia.
    To be sure, an abundance of cheap natural gas is responsible for most of economic hurt in mining states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. Record natural gas production from shale has given utilities a cheaper, and cleaner, fuel.
    Also, as Republicans are eager to point out, environmental regulations have put a gradually tightening noose around the neck of Big Coal. With new limits on toxic emissions, and looming new restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the coal industry is facing a period of structural decline.
    But surprising data just released from the Energy Information Administration shows that Appalachian coal is losing market share to cheaper coal from Colombia.
    Despite being one of the largest producers of coal in the world, the U.S., confusingly, also imports coal. That’s because imports from Colombia can be cheaper, at least for the large market on the U.S. East Coast.
    There are a few reasons why.
    First, labor is cheaper in Colombia. Second, maritime shipping is cheaper than rail to some places on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. For example, moving coal from Appalachia – from mines in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania -- to Florida adds $26 to a ton of coal, while importing Colombian coal adds just $15 per ton.
    Beyond that negative, the coal seams of Appalachia have been mined for over a century, and consequently, the richest coal deposits have been mined out.
    Another advantage of Colombian coal is that it burns relatively cleanly, with low sulfur. For utilities seeking to comply with increasingly stringent limits on air pollution, low-sulfur Colombian coal can provide added flexibility.

  • Reply to

    Remember...

    by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    I'm not short. I have a ton of shares and have been accumulating shares for well over a year now. Your reading too much into my stance. It is exactly as I say. I anticipate depressed coal prices for at least a year and no profits for 2014, 2015 and possibly into 2016. Investors are forward looking but not that forward looking. I just don't see the stock moving up much until coal stock prices recover and profitability is more assured, especially given current debt load of most coal companies. I'm long and strong and have more shares that I want to say. What is the problem with my argument? Can't I be long a stock and also negative on short term stock price prospects? What is your bull case for the short to mid-term?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Aug 18, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    ANR will lose money every coming quarter this year and throughout 2015. The company anticipates this themselves. There is a good chance the company loses money in 2016 and possibly into 2017, as well. There is analyst and expert consensus that coal prices, met and thermal, are at, or near, a bottom and will linger here for the rest of 2014. Many analysts predict that we do not see price recovery until late 2015. Coal stocks are dead money, but for an occasional bounce here and again, until late 2015, possibly later. Then, of course, the long bull cycle in coal gets underway. The best strategy is to accumulate coal stocks now, while we languish at the bottom, maybe selling covered call options for some return and reinvestment. Remember, the coal industry has great near to mid-term visibility. The glut of supply is real and measurable, near and midterm demand is also real and measurable; thus, predictions for one to two years out tend to be accurate. Don't get too excited by any spikes, nor too discouraged with new lows. The super bull cylce is real and will happen, but will not begin in earnest for at least one to two years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 15, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    Apparently an Indian company. India has been looking to acquire coal assets internationally to feed their huge and growing demand and work around incompetent domestic suppliers and low grade Indian coal. True, the rails will take years but investors look out and this news does not help as all coal stocks languishing due to worldwide coal glut that Citi analysts could be prolonged. Hey, I'm long coal and believe in the super coal cycle but I just don't think it happens until 2016 and I don't see big moves in stock price until late 2015. I'm accumulating and holding, trust me. Why can't you bozos look at reality. There will not be any big rise in share price in near future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 100 million tons per year will pass along the rail from Galilee Basin. This puts yet more downward pressure on coal prices.

  • ANR expects to lose money for the rest of this year and through 2015; not going to return to profitability until 2016 at earliest, possibly 2017, depending on coal pricing. All reports clearly say that thermal and met coal supplies are in a glut and will remain so for another year or even two years. The Austrailians, in fact, have been increasing exports and will continue to do so to fulfill contractual obligations in spite of losses. This stock is a long term play as the market corrects and we then enter a new coal supercycle. the strategy is to accumulate and hold, possibly selling out of money covered call options to get some cash for further buys. the covered call strategy is risky, though, as the stock is high beta and could get sold out, though should not be hard to get back in on pullback... by end of 2015, i would avoid the covered call strategy because the stock price could get away from you... hold.. the supercycle begins in earnest by 2016 and we could see 40+ dollars per share by 2017 or 2018... at least, that's how i'm playing it... accumulate and hold

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Aug 5, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    ANR is selling about four times cheaper then WLT. Makes no sense. ANR is a 10 dollar stock.

  • Reply to

    This is why ANR has not sold mines to India

    by dealindave2000 Jul 31, 2014 8:35 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Aug 1, 2014 6:29 AM Flag

    Maybe 50 million is overpay. Lots of problems with infrastructure, flooding, corruption in Mozambique.

  • Improving cost structure and slow cash burn to survive the depressed coal environment... yea!! we go up... or further evidence of weak pricing environment... boo! we go down

  • Reply to

    ANR High Beta Spikes Hard

    by thethirdchimp Jul 24, 2014 12:54 PM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jul 24, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    correction 8/7/2013 closing 4.92 and 11/11/1013 closing 8.03

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Jul 24, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    ANR spikes hard and far off new lows at least once per year and typically during winter months. Consider these historical closing prices:

    8/6/09 closing 31.59
    1/12/2010 closing 51.12

    7/2/10 closing 33.26
    1/11/11 closing 67.38

    10/3/11 closing 16.04
    11/8/2011 closing 28.70

    9/4/12 closing 5.53
    1/7/13 closing 10.60

    8/7/13 closing 4.92
    1/11/13 closing 8.03

    7/24/14 currently 3.35
    1/15/15 closing ?????

    this could double or triple faster than a male pubescent orgasm

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • should push coal stocks upward from here... n'est-ce pas?

  • thethirdchimp by thethirdchimp Jul 9, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    1. ANR announces details of new JV
    2. Republicans do well in Nov elections
    3. Another polar vortex this winter
    4. Met coal pricing turns up
    5. natgas spikes as demand kicks in from new manufacturing (fertilizer, chemical, methanol), fleet vehicle and home conversion to natgas, increasing electric power generation, polar vortex, improved economy w/ lower unemployment
    6. Analysts turn and upgrades begin

    Long term Catalysts:

    1. natgas spikes as export gets underway in 2016
    2. ANR goes profitable between 2016 and 2018

    White Swans:

    1. Indian company buys ANR out for long term access to needed met and thermal coal
    2. Mideast explodes causing oil and all energy commodities to spike hard
    3. breakthroughs in CCS
    4. breakthroughs in coal to gas or coal to liquid technology
    5. miscalculation in U.S. natgas production capacity becomes apparent causing panic and spike in coal and natgas pricing

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from Pittsburgh post gazette

    "But here is the good news for all those who are whining about President Barack Obama’s “war on coal.” There are advanced technologies available now and ready for broad-scale commercial implementation that utilize our vast coal resources to generate electricity to replace the worn-out polluters that in some cases were built over 50 years ago.

    I speak here of the technology that was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and its corporate partners in the clean coal technology programs of the 1990s — integrated coal gasification combined cycle, or IGCC. In this technology, coal is gasified under pressure to produce a fuel gas that is cleaned of acid pollutants and mercury and other toxic metals to over 99.9 percent purity. The gas is then cleanly burned in a combustion turbine-generator to produce electricity. And these advanced, clean generators will operate at efficiencies that are better by over 30 percent when compared to existing coal plants. Thus the targeted 30 percent carbon emissions reduction can literally be achieved while still utilizing coal."

  • Reply to

    I hear India is being pressured to buy

    by dr_vvatson Jun 9, 2014 10:48 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jun 9, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    The combined market cap of ANR ACI and WLT is less than 2 billion. Coal India could buy all three at 100% premium for under 4 billion and have met and thermal reserves for the next century. unreal yet true.

  • Reply to

    Something to Consider

    by thethirdchimp Jun 7, 2014 6:33 AM
    thethirdchimp thethirdchimp Jun 7, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    I sense your irony.

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